Saturday looks like it could be an April peach of a spring day for
much of England, South Wales and the SE of Scotland (maybe even
further North as Aberdeen). The first 21C of the year ought to be
achieved somewhere. I still stick by my 22.3C in Hurn as being the
location of April's max UK temp and Saturday looks the likeliest day
for it to be achieved! Maybe somewhere in the SE will beat it!

Make the best of it, for the last week of April and into early May
look unsettled and cool.

Paul

On Apr 25, 12:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Saturday looks like it could be an April peach of a spring day for
much of England, South Wales and the SE of Scotland (maybe even
further North as Aberdeen). The first 21C of the year ought to be
achieved somewhere. I still stick by my 22.3C in Hurn as being the
location of April's max UK temp and Saturday looks the likeliest day
for it to be achieved! Maybe somewhere in the SE will beat it!

... have just been looking at the figures for our part of the world
for Saturday (as we live a few miles up the road from Hurn). I make
the forecast partial (850-1000hPa) thickness ~1355m (from GFS/06Z
run), which suggests *unadjusted figure* of 18.5/19degC, and given
strong sunshine mid/late afternoon might imply 20 is possible if *all*
other conditions are right. Using the crude '850T+10' rule gives
18/19degC. However, the Channel close-by is not much more than
9.5/10degC, and the wind is forecast to be from that direction all day
- well mixed environment too.

The problem is how the warming of the Bournemouth/Christchurch
conurbation is going to play - it often leads to a late maximum (or
rather later than might be expected from a 'standard' heating curve),
and there might be a bit of help as well in the final Tx from strong
surface heating from that direction. Taking all these factors
together, I wouldn't want to promise much more than 19degC for Hurn.
If we get 22.3, then I'll start suspecting the location of the screen,
the integrity of the instrumentation or a passing FlyBe ;-)

I would tend to look to areas further downwind for the day maximum
tomorrow - perhaps north of London, Fens, East Midlands, Lincs, etc.,
and also perhaps north Kent coast?

Martin.
--

wrote in message
...
On Apr 25, 12:37 pm, Dawlish wrote:
Saturday looks like it could be an April peach of a spring day for
much of England, South Wales and the SE of Scotland (maybe even
further North as Aberdeen). The first 21C of the year ought to be
achieved somewhere. I still stick by my 22.3C in Hurn as being the
location of April's max UK temp and Saturday looks the likeliest day
for it to be achieved! Maybe somewhere in the SE will beat it!

... have just been looking at the figures for our part of the world
for Saturday (as we live a few miles up the road from Hurn). I make
the forecast partial (850-1000hPa) thickness ~1355m (from GFS/06Z
run), which suggests *unadjusted figure* of 18.5/19degC, and given
strong sunshine mid/late afternoon might imply 20 is possible if *all*
other conditions are right. Using the crude '850T+10' rule gives
18/19degC. However, the Channel close-by is not much more than
9.5/10degC, and the wind is forecast to be from that direction all day
- well mixed environment too.

The problem is how the warming of the Bournemouth/Christchurch
conurbation is going to play - it often leads to a late maximum (or
rather later than might be expected from a 'standard' heating curve),
and there might be a bit of help as well in the final Tx from strong
surface heating from that direction. Taking all these factors
together, I wouldn't want to promise much more than 19degC for Hurn.
If we get 22.3, then I'll start suspecting the location of the screen,
the integrity of the instrumentation or a passing FlyBe ;-)

I would tend to look to areas further downwind for the day maximum
tomorrow - perhaps north of London, Fens, East Midlands, Lincs, etc.,
and also perhaps north Kent coast?

Martin.
--

More likely to be a passing Ryanair or Thomson, we don't really get Flybe's
at Hurn!

Jim, Bournemouth.

On Apr 25, 5:14*pm, "Jim Smith" wrote:

More likely to be a passing Ryanair or Thomson, we don't really get Flybe's
at Hurn!

Jim, Bournemouth.- Hide quoted text -

... give it time ;-)

Martin.

On Apr 25, 5:54*pm, wrote:
On Apr 25, 5:14*pm, "Jim Smith" wrote:



More likely to be a passing Ryanair or Thomson, we don't really get Flybe's
at Hurn!

Jim, Bournemouth.- Hide quoted text -

... give it time ;-)

Martin.

You may be right, Martin, but I'll stick to my guns, seeing as I
suggested hurn a few days ago! I already suspect the location of the
screen there......which is the reason I suggested Hurn might be the
warmest. Can anyone confirm, or dash my suspicions?

Paul

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

You may be right, Martin, but I'll stick to my guns, seeing as I
suggested hurn a few days ago! I already suspect the location of the
screen there......which is the reason I suggested Hurn might be the
warmest. Can anyone confirm, or dash my suspicions?

Paul

Even with an increase in theta-w of circa 6 degrees and potentially less
cloud tomorrow it's highly unlikely to be 8 degrees warmer at Hurn tomorrow
compared to today. With a 10KT SW'ly around 17 or 18°C seems reasonable.

Jon.

On Apr 25, 8:39*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

You may be right, Martin, but I'll stick to my guns, seeing as I
suggested hurn a few days ago! I already suspect the location of the
screen there......which is the reason I suggested Hurn might be the
warmest. Can anyone confirm, or dash my suspicions?

Paul

Even with an increase in theta-w of circa 6 degrees and potentially less
cloud tomorrow it's highly unlikely to be 8 degrees warmer at Hurn tomorrow
compared to today. With a 10KT SW'ly around 17 or 18°C seems reasonable.

Jon.

A fair few 19c's in Eastern England by midday. Hurn dragging it's feet
at 16C, might come up on the outside, later in the race, when the
nearby tarmac/concrete really heats up! *)) The first 21C of the year
is pretty certain today. How high will it go?

Paul

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

A fair few 19c's in Eastern England by midday. Hurn dragging it's feet
at 16C, might come up on the outside, later in the race, when the
nearby tarmac/concrete really heats up! *)) The first 21C of the year
is pretty certain today. How high will it go?

21-ish at Stansted or Heathrow area looks a good bet

Stansted EGSS 261150Z 19014KT CAVOK 20/08 Q1023=
Heathrow EGLL 261150Z 21012G24KT 170V250 9999 FEW044 20/09 Q1024 NOSIG=

The breeze may prevent 22C being breached.

Jon.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

A fair few 19c's in Eastern England by midday. Hurn dragging it's feet
at 16C, might come up on the outside, later in the race, when the
nearby tarmac/concrete really heats up! *)) The first 21C of the year
is pretty certain today. How high will it go?

21-ish at Stansted or Heathrow looks a good bet

Stansted EGSS 261150Z 19014KT CAVOK 20/08 Q1023=
Heathrow EGLL 261150Z 21012G24KT 170V250 9999 FEW044 20/09 Q1024 NOSIG=

The breeze may prevent 22C being breached.

Jon.

On 26 Apr, 13:01, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

A fair few 19c's in Eastern England by midday. Hurn dragging it's feet
at 16C, might come up on the outside, later in the race, when the
nearby tarmac/concrete really heats up! *)) The first 21C of the year
is pretty certain today. How high will it go?

21-ish at Stansted or Heathrow looks a good bet

Stansted EGSS 261150Z 19014KT CAVOK 20/08 Q1023=
Heathrow EGLL 261150Z 21012G24KT 170V250 9999 FEW044 20/09 Q1024 NOSIG=

The breeze may prevent 22C being breached.

Jon.

The onshore breeze is holding the temperature to around 15C here,
nearer 13.5C on the water's edge, but it's doing a good job of
accumulating some warm surface water in the Bay. Now up to 11.7C at
the Penzance buoy. A couple of degrees higher than that right on the
beach.

Southerly wind still only Force 2-3.

Graham
Penzance