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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Friday.
Issued 0511z, 5th May 2008 The weekend is likely to see high pressure persisting to the NE, with easterlies or SE'lies over the UK. The outlook remains the same as the past few days, namely warm and dry for many but cooler and possibly cloudier in the east. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png A col covers the UK, with light winds for all. Tomorrow high pressure builds to the NE, leading to easterlies for England and Wales and SE'lies elsewhere. There's little change on Wednesday or Thursday. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows the jet heading NE'wards to the NE of the UK, with a ridge over most of the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a southerly flow, with a high to the east. MetO has an upper high over the North Sea and ECM shows much the same. GEM features an elongated high from southern Norway to northern France. At the surface GFS brings light winds and a col. MetO has easterlies and SE'lies due to a high to the NE, as is the case with ECM. GEM shows a col over Northern Ireland and a mixture of ESE'lies and SE'lies elsewhere. Evolution to T+168 Day 6 with ECM sees easterlies persist over England and Wales as high pressure lies to the ENE. Northern Ireland lies under a col, while Scotland lies under SSE'lies. A ridge covers Scotland on day 7, with ENE'lies for England and Wales and SE'lies for Northern Ireland. A col covers the UK on day 6 with GFS. The col persists for most on day 7, but southerlies associated with a trough to the west affect western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Looking further afield On day 8 with ECM a mixture of southerlies and SE'lies covers the UK as low pressure deepens to the west. There's little change on day 9, but by day 10 SE'lies affect all areas. SE'lies cover much of the UK on day 8 with GFS, as pressure rises over Scandinavia. A trough moves slowly NE'wards over England and Wales on day 9, with SE'lies in advance. The trough fills on day 10, leaving the UK under light southerlies and SE'lies. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres) The ensembles continue to show a prolonged warm spell aloft. |
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