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Old May 5th 08, 06:15 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (5/05/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Friday.
Issued 0511z, 5th May 2008

The weekend is likely to see high pressure persisting to the NE, with
easterlies or SE'lies over the UK. The outlook remains the same as the past
few days, namely warm and dry for many but cooler and possibly cloudier in
the east.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A col covers the UK, with light winds for all. Tomorrow high pressure builds
to the NE, leading to easterlies for England and Wales and SE'lies
elsewhere. There's little change on Wednesday or Thursday.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows the jet heading NE'wards to the NE of the UK, with
a ridge over most of the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a southerly flow,
with a high to the east. MetO has an upper high over the North Sea and ECM
shows much the same. GEM features an elongated high from southern Norway to
northern France.
At the surface GFS brings light winds and a col. MetO has easterlies and
SE'lies due to a high to the NE, as is the case with ECM. GEM shows a col
over Northern Ireland and a mixture of ESE'lies and SE'lies elsewhere.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM sees easterlies persist over England and Wales as high
pressure lies to the ENE. Northern Ireland lies under a col, while Scotland
lies under SSE'lies. A ridge covers Scotland on day 7, with ENE'lies for
England and Wales and SE'lies for Northern Ireland.
A col covers the UK on day 6 with GFS. The col persists for most on day 7,
but southerlies associated with a trough to the west affect western Scotland
and Northern Ireland.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM a mixture of southerlies and SE'lies covers the UK as low
pressure deepens to the west. There's little change on day 9, but by day 10
SE'lies affect all areas.
SE'lies cover much of the UK on day 8 with GFS, as pressure rises over
Scandinavia. A trough moves slowly NE'wards over England and Wales on day 9,
with SE'lies in advance. The trough fills on day 10, leaving the UK under
light southerlies and SE'lies.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres)
The ensembles continue to show a prolonged warm spell aloft.



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