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#1
May 16th 08, 09:02 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Cool few days; warming again later?
A cooler few days coming, into the early part of next week. Some night
frosts in the North and there will be some soft fruit growers and gardeners looking anxiously at the weather forecasts for their areas through the next 5 nights and especially as the clouds clear on Sun/ Mon/Tuesday. How far South will the frosts occur? The East looks most prone, but high pressure looks like it will build again and clear skies could even produce some frosts in the South in frost hollows. At least it looks like it will dry out. The hints of a warmer end to May are becoming much more like probabilities now. Next weekend is presently looking warm again, with Southerly winds and another North African plume. At that distance it is so difficult to predict exactly what track the plume will take, though and it could easily take a more Easterly route towards the Baltic and miss us. Well worth wartching though, as it could produce 80F again and another bout of thunderstorms to follow. The Atlantic is well and truly stalled and has been since April. What is probable that things will begin to warm up again after the cool nights of early next week and the days will be pleasantly sunny and dry, after Saturday, in many areas, if you can get out of the wind. Rotten luck for the Devon County Fair, but I can almost see the plants in my garden growing! The new green leaves on the lime trees are quite beautiful. Late May/early June is my favourite time of the year! Paul |
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#2
May 16th 08, 12:01 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Cool few days; warming again later?
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... A cooler few days coming, into the early part of next week. Some night frosts in the North and there will be some soft fruit growers and gardeners looking anxiously at the weather forecasts for their areas through the next 5 nights and especially as the clouds clear on Sun/ Mon/Tuesday. How far South will the frosts occur? The East looks most prone, but high pressure looks like it will build again and clear skies could even produce some frosts in the South in frost hollows. At least it looks like it will dry out. The hints of a warmer end to May are becoming much more like probabilities now. Next weekend is presently looking warm again, with Southerly winds and another North African plume. At that distance it is so difficult to predict exactly what track the plume will take, though and it could easily take a more Easterly route towards the Baltic and miss us. Well worth wartching though, as it could produce 80F again and another bout of thunderstorms to follow. The Atlantic is well and truly stalled and has been since April. What is probable that things will begin to warm up again after the cool nights of early next week and the days will be pleasantly sunny and dry, after Saturday, in many areas, if you can get out of the wind. Rotten luck for the Devon County Fair, but I can almost see the plants in my garden growing! The new green leaves on the lime trees are quite beautiful. Late May/early June is my favourite time of the year! Paul # Hmmm Paul, doesnt look THAT hopeful of better weather on the models from Darren this morning unless its the Southerlies turning gusty SE that alerts the embers here  He doesnt mention all the pleasant sun but with low pressure not far off were can that be coming from? So I guess the plume u speak of will miss us - damn The middle of the week will see low pressure moving slowly closer to the UK from the west, with strengthening southerly winds and possibly some rain in the west. ECM then brings rain across the UK for the weekend, while GFS keeps the rain in the west with gusty SE'lies elsewhere. Dave R. westLondon |
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#3
May 16th 08, 12:19 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Cool few days; warming again later?
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... A cooler few days coming, into the early part of next week. Some night frosts in the North and there will be some soft fruit growers and gardeners looking anxiously at the weather forecasts for their areas through the next 5 nights and especially as the clouds clear on Sun/ Mon/Tuesday. How far South will the frosts occur? The East looks most prone, but high pressure looks like it will build again and clear skies could even produce some frosts in the South in frost hollows. At least it looks like it will dry out. The hints of a warmer end to May are becoming much more like probabilities now. Next weekend is presently looking warm again, with Southerly winds and another North African plume. At that distance it is so difficult to predict exactly what track the plume will take, though and it could easily take a more Easterly route towards the Baltic and miss us. Well worth wartching though, as it could produce 80F again and another bout of thunderstorms to follow. The Atlantic is well and truly stalled and has been since April. What is probable that things will begin to warm up again after the cool nights of early next week and the days will be pleasantly sunny and dry, after Saturday, in many areas, if you can get out of the wind. Rotten luck for the Devon County Fair, but I can almost see the plants in my garden growing! The new green leaves on the lime trees are quite beautiful. Late May/early June is my favourite time of the year! Paul ------------------ Well I hope you are right Paul, as I will be playing golf on Wednesday at somewhere called The Warren in the place of your sig. ;-) Dave |
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#4
May 16th 08, 12:30 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Cool few days; warming again later?
"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message ... "Dawlish" wrote in message ... A cooler few days coming, into the early part of next week. Some night frosts in the North and there will be some soft fruit growers and gardeners looking anxiously at the weather forecasts for their areas through the next 5 nights and especially as the clouds clear on Sun/ Mon/Tuesday. How far South will the frosts occur? The East looks most prone, but high pressure looks like it will build again and clear skies could even produce some frosts in the South in frost hollows. At least it looks like it will dry out. The hints of a warmer end to May are becoming much more like probabilities now. Next weekend is presently looking warm again, with Southerly winds and another North African plume. At that distance it is so difficult to predict exactly what track the plume will take, though and it could easily take a more Easterly route towards the Baltic and miss us. Well worth wartching though, as it could produce 80F again and another bout of thunderstorms to follow. The Atlantic is well and truly stalled and has been since April. What is probable that things will begin to warm up again after the cool nights of early next week and the days will be pleasantly sunny and dry, after Saturday, in many areas, if you can get out of the wind. Rotten luck for the Devon County Fair, but I can almost see the plants in my garden growing! The new green leaves on the lime trees are quite beautiful. Late May/early June is my favourite time of the year! Paul ------------------ Well I hope you are right Paul, as I will be playing golf on Wednesday at somewhere called The Warren in the place of your sig. ;-) Dave Ah Dawlish Warren, yes we sometimes sail there in our Mirror dinghy in summer. Dave, it should be fine and warm, don't worry. Enjoy the tropical plants in Dawlish too. I'll wave to you from my eagle's nest :-) Will -- |
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#5
May 16th 08, 12:58 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Cool few days; warming again later?
On May 16, 12:30*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message ... "Dawlish" wrote in message ... A cooler few days coming, into the early part of next week. Some night frosts in the North and there will be some soft fruit growers and gardeners looking anxiously at the weather forecasts for *their areas through the next 5 nights and especially as the clouds clear on Sun/ Mon/Tuesday. How far South will the frosts occur? The East looks most prone, but high pressure looks like it will build again and clear skies could even produce some frosts in the South in frost hollows. At least it looks like it will dry out. The hints of a warmer end to May are becoming much more like probabilities now. Next weekend is presently looking warm again, with Southerly winds and another North African plume. At that distance it is so difficult to predict exactly what track the plume will take, though and it could easily take a more Easterly route towards the Baltic and miss us. Well worth wartching though, as it could produce 80F again and another bout of thunderstorms to follow. The Atlantic is well and truly stalled and has been since April. What is probable that things will begin to warm up again after the cool nights of early next week and the days will be pleasantly sunny and dry, after Saturday, in many areas, if you can get out of the wind. Rotten luck for the Devon County Fair, but I can almost see the plants in my garden growing! The new green leaves on the lime trees are quite beautiful. Late May/early June *is my favourite time of the year! Paul ------------------ Well I hope you are right Paul, as I will be playing golf on Wednesday at somewhere called The Warren in the place of your sig. ;-) Dave Ah Dawlish Warren, yes we sometimes sail there in our Mirror dinghy in summer. Dave, it should be fine and warm, don't worry. Enjoy the tropical plants in Dawlish too. I'll wave to you from my eagle's nest :-) Will --- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I think the rise in pressure will leave us in much drier conditions Dave(s) and give many areas some pleasant sunshine, but I can't be sure that the plume will bring that real warmth. Possible, not probable on that one. Analysis of the models, by different people, amateurs and professionals alike, can produce different interpretations. Just because there is a variation between Darren's interpretion and mine makes neither of us wrong. It's "today's model analysis", in this instance and not an actual forecast. There's a big difference. Forecasts should only be judged at outcome and then judged by clear parameters set at the start - as W is finding out on another thread. Analysis implies a measure of uncertainty. I wouldn't dream of looking at Darren's success percentage, as what he produces is an analysis of the current models, with suggestions as to what might happen and not a forecast. It is one of the best around for me and it is incredibly useful every morning that I read it! I hope we get the plume next weekend, Dave, but a hope is what it is! The 06z makes it a little less likely, but doesn't remove the possibility completely. where the North African warmth reaches depends, very much, on the position of the low in the Atlantic and it's most likely position, on 7/8/9 days time, will alter over the next few days as the models change, maybe quite considerably! Paul |
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#6
May 16th 08, 11:34 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Cool few days; warming again later?
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... On May 16, 12:30 pm, "Will Hand" wrote: "Dave Cornwell" wrote in message ... "Dawlish" wrote in message ... A cooler few days coming, into the early part of next week. Some night frosts in the North and there will be some soft fruit growers and gardeners looking anxiously at the weather forecasts for their areas through the next 5 nights and especially as the clouds clear on Sun/ Mon/Tuesday. How far South will the frosts occur? The East looks most prone, but high pressure looks like it will build again and clear skies could even produce some frosts in the South in frost hollows. At least it looks like it will dry out. The hints of a warmer end to May are becoming much more like probabilities now. Next weekend is presently looking warm again, with Southerly winds and another North African plume. At that distance it is so difficult to predict exactly what track the plume will take, though and it could easily take a more Easterly route towards the Baltic and miss us. Well worth wartching though, as it could produce 80F again and another bout of thunderstorms to follow. The Atlantic is well and truly stalled and has been since April. What is probable that things will begin to warm up again after the cool nights of early next week and the days will be pleasantly sunny and dry, after Saturday, in many areas, if you can get out of the wind. Rotten luck for the Devon County Fair, but I can almost see the plants in my garden growing! The new green leaves on the lime trees are quite beautiful. Late May/early June is my favourite time of the year! Paul ------------------ Well I hope you are right Paul, as I will be playing golf on Wednesday at somewhere called The Warren in the place of your sig. ;-) Dave Ah Dawlish Warren, yes we sometimes sail there in our Mirror dinghy in summer. Dave, it should be fine and warm, don't worry. Enjoy the tropical plants in Dawlish too. I'll wave to you from my eagle's nest :-) Will --- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I think the rise in pressure will leave us in much drier conditions Dave(s) and give many areas some pleasant sunshine, but I can't be sure that the plume will bring that real warmth. Possible, not probable on that one. Analysis of the models, by different people, amateurs and professionals alike, can produce different interpretations. Just because there is a variation between Darren's interpretion and mine makes neither of us wrong. It's "today's model analysis", in this instance and not an actual forecast. There's a big difference. Forecasts should only be judged at outcome and then judged by clear parameters set at the start - as W is finding out on another thread. Analysis implies a measure of uncertainty. I wouldn't dream of looking at Darren's success percentage, as what he produces is an analysis of the current models, with suggestions as to what might happen and not a forecast. It is one of the best around for me and it is incredibly useful every morning that I read it! I hope we get the plume next weekend, Dave, but a hope is what it is! The 06z makes it a little less likely, but doesn't remove the possibility completely. where the North African warmth reaches depends, very much, on the position of the low in the Atlantic and it's most likely position, on 7/8/9 days time, will alter over the next few days as the models change, maybe quite considerably! Paul --------------- Don't worry - round there it will be great whatever the weather! Well, barring raging Sw'lies ;-) Dave |
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#7
May 17th 08, 09:37 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Cool few days; warming again later?
On May 16, 11:34*pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message ... On May 16, 12:30 pm, "Will Hand" wrote: "Dave Cornwell" wrote in message ... "Dawlish" wrote in message .... A cooler few days coming, into the early part of next week. Some night frosts in the North and there will be some soft fruit growers and gardeners looking anxiously at the weather forecasts for their areas through the next 5 nights and especially as the clouds clear on Sun/ Mon/Tuesday. How far South will the frosts occur? The East looks most prone, but high pressure looks like it will build again and clear skies could even produce some frosts in the South in frost hollows. At least it looks like it will dry out. The hints of a warmer end to May are becoming much more like probabilities now. Next weekend is presently looking warm again, with Southerly winds and another North African plume. At that distance it is so difficult to predict exactly what track the plume will take, though and it could easily take a more Easterly route towards the Baltic and miss us. Well worth wartching though, as it could produce 80F again and another bout of thunderstorms to follow. The Atlantic is well and truly stalled and has been since April. What is probable that things will begin to warm up again after the cool nights of early next week and the days will be pleasantly sunny and dry, after Saturday, in many areas, if you can get out of the wind. Rotten luck for the Devon County Fair, but I can almost see the plants in my garden growing! The new green leaves on the lime trees are quite beautiful. Late May/early June is my favourite time of the year! Paul ------------------ Well I hope you are right Paul, as I will be playing golf on Wednesday at somewhere called The Warren in the place of your sig. ;-) Dave Ah Dawlish Warren, yes we sometimes sail there in our Mirror dinghy in summer. Dave, it should be fine and warm, don't worry. Enjoy the tropical plants in Dawlish too. I'll wave to you from my eagle's nest :-) Will --- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I think the rise in pressure will leave us in much drier conditions Dave(s) and give many areas some pleasant sunshine, but I can't be sure that the plume will bring that real warmth. Possible, not probable on that one. Analysis of the models, by different people, amateurs and professionals alike, can produce different interpretations. Just because there is a variation between Darren's interpretion and mine makes neither of us wrong. It's "today's model analysis", in this instance and not an actual forecast. There's a big difference. Forecasts should only be judged at outcome and then judged by clear parameters set at the start - as W is finding out on another thread. Analysis implies a measure of uncertainty. I wouldn't dream of looking at Darren's success percentage, as what he produces is an analysis of the current models, with suggestions as to what might happen and not a forecast. It is one of the best around for me and it is incredibly useful *every morning that I read it! I hope we get the plume next weekend, Dave, but a hope is what it is! The 06z makes it a little less likely, but doesn't remove the possibility completely. where the North African warmth reaches depends, very much, on the position of the low in the Atlantic and it's most likely position, on 7/8/9 days time, will alter over the next few days as the models change, maybe quite considerably! Paul --------------- Don't worry - round there it will be great whatever the weather! Well, barring raging Sw'lies ;-) Dave- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - It's looking a slower warm-up than was on the cards yesterday, but there's still a chance of a warm end to May and thus the chance of a warm start to June. Cool though! UK maxes struggling to get near 20C, compared to the date record a week ago and many areas well below that. Bridlington, of all places, warmest in the UK at 0800 this morning! Such a turn-around from last weekend. CET down to 14.6C, +4.1C (http://www.climate- uk.com/) and it will fall further over the coming week. By the end of this week, UK maxes will probably be above 21C again, but many areas will see some nice sunshine, as high pressure rises, albeit slowly. Still some cloud around, during the week, for many, but if you can get out of the cool wind, it won't feel as bad as it does, certainly in Devon, today, as it will be much drier. After that, the gfs has postponed the plume, by a few days, until 10 days hence. I'm still not confident of those late May high temps, but, presently, there's more of a possibility of that, than the end of May being coold and damp. Despite the current cool UK weather, May looks as though it will end up with a CET significantly above average and that it will break the 13 month sequence of the previous year's corresponding month being warmer than the current year's. Paul |
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#8
May 17th 08, 09:59 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Cool few days; warming again later?
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... Cool though! UK maxes struggling to get near 20C, compared to the date record a week ago and many areas well below that. Bridlington, of all places, warmest in the UK at 0800 this morning! Such a turn-around from last weekend. CET down to 14.6C, +4.1C (http://www.climate- uk.com/) and it will fall further over the coming week. I have been following the Metcheck CET http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/month.asp I know it's not the *real* CET but the temperatures correlate remarkably well, being just 0.1C apart. However the anolmolies are a whole degree apart, clearly Metcheck have been using a different (and presumably later) standard period with wich to compare as they are on +3.1C and the real CET is +4.1C. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
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#9
May 17th 08, 10:08 AM
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Cool few days; warming again later?
oh here comes the "No forecast" soon....
your forecast was crap paul, admit it; based on 1 run, 1 model at t+240 you never learn. Dawlish wrote: On May 16, 11:34 pm, "Dave Cornwell" wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message ... On May 16, 12:30 pm, "Will Hand" wrote: "Dave Cornwell" wrote in message ... "Dawlish" wrote in message ... A cooler few days coming, into the early part of next week. Some night frosts in the North and there will be some soft fruit growers and gardeners looking anxiously at the weather forecasts for their areas through the next 5 nights and especially as the clouds clear on Sun/ Mon/Tuesday. How far South will the frosts occur? The East looks most prone, but high pressure looks like it will build again and clear skies could even produce some frosts in the South in frost hollows. At least it looks like it will dry out. The hints of a warmer end to May are becoming much more like probabilities now. Next weekend is presently looking warm again, with Southerly winds and another North African plume. At that distance it is so difficult to predict exactly what track the plume will take, though and it could easily take a more Easterly route towards the Baltic and miss us. Well worth wartching though, as it could produce 80F again and another bout of thunderstorms to follow. The Atlantic is well and truly stalled and has been since April. What is probable that things will begin to warm up again after the cool nights of early next week and the days will be pleasantly sunny and dry, after Saturday, in many areas, if you can get out of the wind. Rotten luck for the Devon County Fair, but I can almost see the plants in my garden growing! The new green leaves on the lime trees are quite beautiful. Late May/early June is my favourite time of the year! Paul ------------------ Well I hope you are right Paul, as I will be playing golf on Wednesday at somewhere called The Warren in the place of your sig. ;-) Dave Ah Dawlish Warren, yes we sometimes sail there in our Mirror dinghy in summer. Dave, it should be fine and warm, don't worry. Enjoy the tropical plants in Dawlish too. I'll wave to you from my eagle's nest :-) Will --- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I think the rise in pressure will leave us in much drier conditions Dave(s) and give many areas some pleasant sunshine, but I can't be sure that the plume will bring that real warmth. Possible, not probable on that one. Analysis of the models, by different people, amateurs and professionals alike, can produce different interpretations. Just because there is a variation between Darren's interpretion and mine makes neither of us wrong. It's "today's model analysis", in this instance and not an actual forecast. There's a big difference. Forecasts should only be judged at outcome and then judged by clear parameters set at the start - as W is finding out on another thread. Analysis implies a measure of uncertainty. I wouldn't dream of looking at Darren's success percentage, as what he produces is an analysis of the current models, with suggestions as to what might happen and not a forecast. It is one of the best around for me and it is incredibly useful every morning that I read it! I hope we get the plume next weekend, Dave, but a hope is what it is! The 06z makes it a little less likely, but doesn't remove the possibility completely. where the North African warmth reaches depends, very much, on the position of the low in the Atlantic and it's most likely position, on 7/8/9 days time, will alter over the next few days as the models change, maybe quite considerably! Paul --------------- Don't worry - round there it will be great whatever the weather! Well, barring raging Sw'lies ;-) Dave- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - It's looking a slower warm-up than was on the cards yesterday, but there's still a chance of a warm end to May and thus the chance of a warm start to June. Cool though! UK maxes struggling to get near 20C, compared to the date record a week ago and many areas well below that. Bridlington, of all places, warmest in the UK at 0800 this morning! Such a turn-around from last weekend. CET down to 14.6C, +4.1C (http://www.climate- uk.com/) and it will fall further over the coming week. By the end of this week, UK maxes will probably be above 21C again, but many areas will see some nice sunshine, as high pressure rises, albeit slowly. Still some cloud around, during the week, for many, but if you can get out of the cool wind, it won't feel as bad as it does, certainly in Devon, today, as it will be much drier. After that, the gfs has postponed the plume, by a few days, until 10 days hence. I'm still not confident of those late May high temps, but, presently, there's more of a possibility of that, than the end of May being coold and damp. Despite the current cool UK weather, May looks as though it will end up with a CET significantly above average and that it will break the 13 month sequence of the previous year's corresponding month being warmer than the current year's. Paul |
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#10
May 17th 08, 10:23 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Cool few days; warming again later?
On May 17, 9:59*am, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... Cool though! UK maxes struggling to get near 20C, compared to the date record a week ago and many areas well below that. Bridlington, of all places, warmest in the UK at 0800 this morning! Such a turn-around from last weekend. CET down to 14.6C, +4.1C (http://www.climate- uk.com/) and it will fall further over the coming week. I have been following the Metcheck CET *http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/month.asp I know it's not the *real* CET but the temperatures correlate remarkably well, being just 0.1C apart. However the anolmolies are a whole degree apart, clearly Metcheck have been using a different (and presumably later) standard period with wich to compare as they are on +3.1C and the real CET is +4.1C. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl HI Col, Philip compares the current CET on the 16th, to the average CET to the 16th. metcheck don't, they compare their CET (very close to Philip's; they use stations in the same area, but not the same stations) to the CET for May as a whole, which, by the 31st May, on average, is higher than it is on the 16th. Thus their anomaly is lower. I hope I've got that right. I'm sure Philip would explain it better! Paul PS Hi stalker! |
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