Home |
Search |
Today's Posts |
![]() |
|
uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
Reply |
|
LinkBack | Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Sunday.
Issued 0512z, 21st May 2008 Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png SE'lies cover the UK, with a ridge to the east. SE'lies persist tomorrow as a trough moves over Ireland, By Friday ESE'lies affect the UK and Satureday sees low pressure deepen over Biscay, resulting in easterlies for all. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a large trough over the UK, with a ridge to the west. At the 500hPa level there's a ridge to the NE and a low to the SE, with upper NE'lies. MetO has a col aloft while ECM brings NE'lies aloft as per GFS. GEM has a ridge over the UK. At the surface GFS brings strong NE'lies with a high to the north and a ridge over Scotland. MetO shows strong NE'lies too, again with a high to the north. ECM brings strong ENE'lies and a high to the NNW, as is the case with GEM. Evolution to T+168 Day 6 with ECM brings NE'lies for all as pressure remains high to the NW. The high declines as it moves over the UK on day 7, with light winds for all. GFS brings a ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland on day 6, with NE'lies elsewhere. The ridge moves away to the east on day 7, allowing southerlies to affect Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds are light due to a col. Looking further afield On day 8 with ECM a ridge covers much of the UK, although SE England lies under NE'lies. Much the same is true on day 9, although the NE'lies affect much of England and Wales. Day 10 sees light northerlies as the high declines to the west. GFS shows a col and light winds on day 8. On day 9 NW'lies cover the UK, with a ridge to the west. By day 10 a ridge covers the UK, with SW'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland; elsewhere winds are NW'lies. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres) The ensembles show a prolonged average or above-average spell of temperatures coming up. In summary... Bank Holiday Monday looks like seeing a NW/SE split, with gusty NE'lies over much of the UK. In the north and NW it'll be largely dry, but further south there's a greater risk of rain from a low pressure just to the south. Beyond that GFS shows a ridge "toppling" over the UK, before dissipating by the end of the week. ECM on the other hand keeps the high around for longer, ending up with a NW/SE split again (with the north and west under the high). |
Reply |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Forum | |||
Today's model interpretation (10/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (9/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (8/7/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (7/6/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (5/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) |