Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Monday.
Issued 0513z, 22nd May 2008

Bank Holiday Monday still looks wet and windy for much of the UK, with only
northern Scotland likely to escape the rain. Low pressure will persist near
the UK for much of the working week, with further rain at times for most.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
SE'lies and ESE'lies cover the UK, with a low to the west and a ridge to the
east. There's little change tomorrow but by Saturday the low fills and moves
SE'wards, allowing ENE'lies across the UK. On Sunday the low moves westwards
as the high to the north sinks southwards, leading to strong to gale NE'lies
over the UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a split jet west of the UK, with the bulk of the
energy going into the southern branch, which crosses Morocco. At the 500hPa
level there's an upper low over the UK, whereas MetO has an upper trough and
a mixture of easterlies and SE'lies instead. ECM brings upper easterlies
too, while GEM has an upper low over northern France and NE'lies aloft.
At the surface GFS brings low pressure over northern England with strong
NE'lies for northern England northwards. Southern England lies under light
winds. ENE'lies cover the UK with MetO, with low pressure over Biscay. ECM
has a large, complex but slack low to the south, with strong NE'lies over
the UK. GEM brings strong to gale NE'lies over the UK, with low pressure
over northern France (Nord-Pas de Calais).

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings ENE'lies and NE'lies with low pressure over England
and a high persisting to the north. The low moves slowly ESE'wards over
France on day 7, leaving a col over the UK.
GFS brings northerlies and NE'lies on day 6 with a low over Paris. A trough
means the winds are light over England and Wales, with light winds for all
due to a col on day 7.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM NW'lies cover the UK as a ridge moves in from the west.
The ridge moves slowly eastwards over the UK on day 9 and by day 10 a low
deepens to the WNW, with SW'lies across the UK.
GFS shows SSW'lies on day 8 as a low approaches from the west. SW'lies
persist on day 9 as the low crosses NW Scotland and on day 10 the low moves
away to the NE, with WSW'lies for the UK.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres)
The ensembles show a prolonged average or above-average spell of
temperatures coming up.