A few reasonably nice days early on. Then continual rain/storms/grey.
Don't know whats happening in the NE but has the foggy pattern set in
there too?

Worse than that i've seen words like unforcasted and unforecastable
used to in this group. Hmmmm

Whats happening generally, have we got this 'jetstream too far south'
problem all over again?

Are we going to get any ' Long settled spells' ? like 2003,2004 and
2006 with the mecury hitting 30+ ?

Regards, Keith

"Keith Wassell" wrote in message
...
A few reasonably nice days early on. Then continual rain/storms/grey.
Don't know whats happening in the NE but has the foggy pattern set in
there too?

Worse than that i've seen words like unforcasted and unforecastable
used to in this group. Hmmmm

Whats happening generally, have we got this 'jetstream too far south'
problem all over again?

Are we going to get any ' Long settled spells' ? like 2003,2004 and
2006 with the mecury hitting 30+ ?

I was thinking the same thing myself.
Wasn't it late May last year that things seriously started to go
wrong, then the wet weather lasted for weeks.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On May 31, 7:48*am, Keith Wassell wrote:
A few reasonably nice days early on. Then continual rain/storms/grey.
Don't know whats happening in the NE but has the foggy pattern set in
there too?

Worse than that i've seen words like unforcasted and unforecastable
used to in this group. Hmmmm

Whats happening generally, have we got this 'jetstream too far south'
problem all over again?

Are we going to get any ' Long settled spells' ? like 2003,2004 and
2006 *with the mecury hitting 30+ ?

Regards, Keith

Hi Keith,

No idea; probably, neither has anyone else! To the start of the second
week in June may look like it could torn cooler than it looked like it
would a few days ago, but that kind of non-descript phrase is about
the limit of summer seasonal forecastability. It's like trying to
estimate where the skyline is in fog. Personally, I'd go 1/4 that the
summer will be warmer than average, but anyone else who is putting any
kind of detail into forecasts what the pattern of weather over the 3
months of the summer will be like, from the standpoint of now,
excellent meteorologist/agency/MO/Internet punter, or whoever, is
doing little more than guessing. That's not being disrespectful in the
slightest; it's just being realistic. The UKMO is the best and their
record of forecasting the coming summer's weather, is very poor.
That's not their fault; it's just not possible. If it were, how could
the MO possible miss the "signals" for a wet summer last year? They
missed them because no-one knows what to look for. That doesn't mean
someone won't find a reliable signal, perhaps soon, but at present,
there isn't one.

Also; "So far" into the summer? What's that all about? You won't get
far comparing the end of May to last summer! Mind you, Keith, this
morning certainly feels like summer - whatever that actually feels
like in the UK.....Dawlish beach at low tide was magnificent this
morning! Thank goodness we've got some sun.

Pass me a slice of toast please Will. *))

Paul

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On May 31, 7:48 am, Keith Wassell wrote:
A few reasonably nice days early on. Then continual rain/storms/grey.
Don't know whats happening in the NE but has the foggy pattern set in
there too?

Worse than that i've seen words like unforcasted and unforecastable
used to in this group. Hmmmm

Whats happening generally, have we got this 'jetstream too far south'
problem all over again?

Are we going to get any ' Long settled spells' ? like 2003,2004 and
2006 with the mecury hitting 30+ ?

Regards, Keith

Hi Keith,

No idea; probably, neither has anyone else! To the start of the second
week in June may look like it could torn cooler than it looked like it
would a few days ago, but that kind of non-descript phrase is about
the limit of summer seasonal forecastability. It's like trying to
estimate where the skyline is in fog. Personally, I'd go 1/4 that the
summer will be warmer than average, but anyone else who is putting any
kind of detail into forecasts what the pattern of weather over the 3
months of the summer will be like, from the standpoint of now,
excellent meteorologist/agency/MO/Internet punter, or whoever, is
doing little more than guessing. That's not being disrespectful in the
slightest; it's just being realistic. The UKMO is the best and their
record of forecasting the coming summer's weather, is very poor.
That's not their fault; it's just not possible. If it were, how could
the MO possible miss the "signals" for a wet summer last year? They
missed them because no-one knows what to look for. That doesn't mean
someone won't find a reliable signal, perhaps soon, but at present,
there isn't one.

Also; "So far" into the summer? What's that all about? You won't get
far comparing the end of May to last summer! Mind you, Keith, this
morning certainly feels like summer - whatever that actually feels
like in the UK.....Dawlish beach at low tide was magnificent this
morning! Thank goodness we've got some sun.

Pass me a slice of toast please Will. *))

Paul

====

Certainly feels like high summer today up here on Dartmoor Paul.
Light winds 20C, balmy feel, sun out, bees and butterflies, fresh flowers
and trees - beautiful.

FWIW I predict a changeable summer ahead, no long dry settled spells, plenty
of rain, but with some nice warm and sunny days like today.

Will
--

----- Original Message -----
From: "Keith Wassell"
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Sent: Saturday, May 31, 2008 7:48 AM
Subject: Looks like a repeat of last years so called 'summer' so Far

Are we going to get any ' Long settled spells' ? like 2003,2004 and
2006 with the mecury hitting 30+ ?

Regards, Keith

The summer forecast was updated a few days ago and is similar to be before
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...008/index.html

Jon.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Keith Wassell"
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Sent: Saturday, May 31, 2008 7:48 AM
Subject: Looks like a repeat of last years so called 'summer' so Far

Are we going to get any ' Long settled spells' ? like 2003,2004 and
2006 with the mecury hitting 30+ ?

Regards, Keith

The summer forecast was updated a few days ago and is similar to before
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...008/index.html

Jon.

On Fri, 30 May 2008 at 23:48:11, Keith Wassell wrote
in uk.sci.weather :

Whats happening generally, have we got this 'jetstream too far south'
problem all over again?

Are we going to get any ' Long settled spells' ? like 2003,2004 and
2006 with the mecury hitting 30+ ?

I hope not...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

On May 31, 6:29*pm, Paul Hyett wrote:
On Fri, 30 May 2008 at 23:48:11, Keith Wassell wrote
in uk.sci.weather :



Whats happening generally, have we got this 'jetstream too far south'
problem all over again?

Are we going to get any ' Long settled spells' ? like 2003,2004 and
2006 *with the mecury hitting 30+ ?

I hope not...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

i Paul,

There's an increasing chance that you may be disappointed and that
most of the rest of England, at least, could be looking towards
something approaching those "long settled spells with the mercury
hitting 30C+".........maybe not quite that long, or high, but at least
a few days of "nice" weather!

What a difference a day makes in model watching really. From looking
at cool, unsettled conditions 24 hours ago, the gfs now shows
delightfully settled and warm conditions with the establishment of
aEuropean high, by T240.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

It's just changing model output really. I haven't got a great deal of
confidence in that T240 scenario and even if it developed, there's no
guarantee of a long spell of warm and settled weather for the UK, but
those charts are a little more optimistic-looking than those
yesterday. (Well, OK, optimistic-looking if you like dry, warm and
settled weather in summer. I realise that is a subjective viewpoint,
but most do!).

Give me another 4 runs with those charts showing at T240 and I'll get
interested.

Paul

PS Over the last 2 days, the outlook has really improved for your
holiday in the Costas David, too! It was looking pretty abysmal, but;
"the wind is changing, Mary Poppins!" Pressure is looking like it will
rise and produce settled and sunny weather formuch of your holiday
week...........wait until tomorrow to confirm that though; like I
said, a day is a long tome in model watching.

On May 31, 7:48 am, Keith Wassell wrote:
A few reasonably nice days early on. Then continual rain/storms/grey.
Don't know whats happening in the NE but has the foggy pattern set in
there too?

Worse than that i've seen words like unforcasted and unforecastable
used to in this group. Hmmmm

Whats happening generally, have we got this 'jetstream too far south'
problem all over again?

Are we going to get any ' Long settled spells' ? like 2003,2004 and
2006 with the mecury hitting 30+ ?

Regards, Keith

Not sure about 2004, seem to remember that year being very wet (if
warm)!

Seems to be a different set up to last year. Last year seemed to be
Atlantic lows further south than normal then getting stuck over NW
Europe, whilst at the moment it seems to be lows moving up from the
continent while northern England and southern Scotland remain dry
(unlike last year).

Nick

On Sun, 1 Jun 2008 at 02:05:03, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

Are we going to get any ' Long settled spells' ? like 2003,2004 and
2006 *with the mecury hitting 30+ ?

I hope not...

i Paul,

7
What a difference a day makes in model watching really. From looking
at cool, unsettled conditions 24 hours ago, the gfs now shows
delightfully settled and warm conditions with the establishment of
aEuropean high, by T240.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

It's just changing model output really. I haven't got a great deal of
confidence in that T240 scenario

Yes, they're about as trustworthy as a Labour gov't promise...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)