Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Saturday.
Issued 0542z, 10th June 2008

The weekend looks like seeing rain almost anywhere, with either a low nearby
(GFS) or a col with showers (ECM, MetO). Beyond that ECM shows low pressure
dominating the UK and although GFS initially keeps the low at bay, it
eventually affects the UK as per ECM.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
WNW'lies cover the UK, with high pressure to the WSW. There's little change
tomorrow (other than some cooler air moving southwards), but by Thursday
winds become NW'lies as the high moves northwards. Friday sees NW'lies with
the UK between a ridge to the west and a low to the NE.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a split jet to the west and a marked trough over
the UK and to the east. At the 500hPa level there's an upper low over the
North Sea, as is the case with MetO. ECM has a deeper upper low over
southern Norway, while GEM has a low over the North Sea.
At the surface GFS brings light NW'lies and NNW'lies over the UK, with a
shallow low over the North Sea. MetO has a col over the UK, while ECM has a
trough and NW'lies for Scotland and northern England; elsewhere is a col.
GEM brings NW'lies and NNW'lies across the UK, with low pressure to the ENE.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings a col with lows to the WSW and ENE. On day 7 low
pressure lies to the south, with cool easterlies over the UK.
GFS brings a NNE'ly flow over the UK on day 6, with high pressure to the
west and a low to the ESE. On day 7 a ridge moves eastwards, with
northerlies for most.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM low pressure covers England and Wales, with NE'lies
elsewhere. SSW'lies cover the UK on day 9 as the low becomes complex, with
centres to the SW, WNW and ENE. Day 10 sees the UK under a shallow trough,
with light winds for most.
GFS shows a col on day 8, followed by SE'lies on day 9 ahead of a low to the
west. The low deepens over the UK on day 10, with strong to gale force
NNE'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles show a cool spell on the way.