uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1   Report Post  
Old June 11th 08, 06:48 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Sep 2007
Posts: 819
Default Today's model interpretation (11/06/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Sunday.
Issued 0547z, 11th June 2008

The first half of next week will see winds from a northerly quarter across
the UK, bringing cool conditions and showers for many. The latter half of
the week sees a change to less settled conditions as a low passes over or
close to the UK.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
High pressure lies to the WSW, leading to WNW'lies over the UK. Tomorrow the
high builds to the NW, with NNW'lies for all. Friday sees further NNW'lies
as the high persists to the NW, followed by NW'lies on Saturday as the high
declines.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a split jet far to the west, with a large trough
over the UK and the rest of western Europe. At the 500hPa level there's a
trough to the east and upper northerlies. MetO has an upper trough over the
UK, while ECM has the trough slightly further east. GEM similarly has a
trough to the east.
At the surface GFS brings light winds and a col, while MetO has NNW'lies and
a low to the NE. ECM brings a trough over the UK, with NW'lies over Scotland
and Northern Ireland; westerlies cover the rest of the UK. GEM has NW'lies
and NNW'lies over the UK, due to a low to the east and a high to the west.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings NW'lies for all with a ridge to the west. Day 7 sees
the ridge move eastwards with WNW'lies as a result.
GFS brings a weak ridge and light winds over the UK on day 6. On day 7 a
trough covers England and Wales, with ESE'lies elsewhere.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM SW'lies cover the UK, in asssociation with a low to the
NW. On day 9 the low deepens to the NE, with strong NW'lies for Scotland and
lighter WSW'lies elsewhere. By day 10 a col covers much of the UK, with
light winds.
GFS shows low pressure over Northern Ireland on day 8, with a trough over
Scotland and SW'lies for England and Wales. Day 9 sees a col over Scotland
and Northern Ireland, with a weak ridge and SW'lies over England and Wales.
By day 10 a col covers much of the UK, although SE England lies under
SW'lies.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles continue to show a cool spell on the way.


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules

Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Today's model interpretation (10/07/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 10th 03 07:11 AM
Today's model interpretation (9/07/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 9th 03 07:13 AM
Today's model interpretation (8/7/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 8th 03 07:16 AM
Today's model interpretation (7/6/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 5th 03 07:15 AM
Today's model interpretation (5/07/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 5th 03 06:10 AM


All times are GMT. The time now is 02:15 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004-2025 Weather Banter.
The comments are property of their posters.
 

About Us

"It's about Weather"

 

Copyright © 2017