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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Sunday.
Issued 0547z, 11th June 2008 The first half of next week will see winds from a northerly quarter across the UK, bringing cool conditions and showers for many. The latter half of the week sees a change to less settled conditions as a low passes over or close to the UK. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png High pressure lies to the WSW, leading to WNW'lies over the UK. Tomorrow the high builds to the NW, with NNW'lies for all. Friday sees further NNW'lies as the high persists to the NW, followed by NW'lies on Saturday as the high declines. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a split jet far to the west, with a large trough over the UK and the rest of western Europe. At the 500hPa level there's a trough to the east and upper northerlies. MetO has an upper trough over the UK, while ECM has the trough slightly further east. GEM similarly has a trough to the east. At the surface GFS brings light winds and a col, while MetO has NNW'lies and a low to the NE. ECM brings a trough over the UK, with NW'lies over Scotland and Northern Ireland; westerlies cover the rest of the UK. GEM has NW'lies and NNW'lies over the UK, due to a low to the east and a high to the west. Evolution to T+168 Day 6 with ECM brings NW'lies for all with a ridge to the west. Day 7 sees the ridge move eastwards with WNW'lies as a result. GFS brings a weak ridge and light winds over the UK on day 6. On day 7 a trough covers England and Wales, with ESE'lies elsewhere. Looking further afield On day 8 with ECM SW'lies cover the UK, in asssociation with a low to the NW. On day 9 the low deepens to the NE, with strong NW'lies for Scotland and lighter WSW'lies elsewhere. By day 10 a col covers much of the UK, with light winds. GFS shows low pressure over Northern Ireland on day 8, with a trough over Scotland and SW'lies for England and Wales. Day 9 sees a col over Scotland and Northern Ireland, with a weak ridge and SW'lies over England and Wales. By day 10 a col covers much of the UK, although SE England lies under SW'lies. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The ensembles continue to show a cool spell on the way. |
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