On Jun 28, 8:12*am, Dawlish wrote:
It's not looking good for the first week, is it? A rise in pressure
over Scandinavia does look as if it will halt the zonal train at the
start of the month and as that pressure builds and stalls a low out to
the West of Ireland, another plume may be drawn Northwards. If it
doesn't topple, it could bring the warmest weather of the year so far
to Eastern parts on Tues/Wed next week. it also brings the threat of
some thunderstorms, before it is shunted out of the way by another low
and its associated troughs. A topple, just like the last one, and we
get into a showery, cool, flow before the heat even begins and the
near continental gets the heat, instead of the UK

Then the possibility of something pretty awful........last summer;
part 2!!

I said earlier that blocking over Scandinavia could mean very poor
weather for the UK. That block could lead to exactly the same slow
moving lows and heavy rain, as those that plagued us last summer.

Ouch!

I'm afraid (and I really am, with what it could portends for July)
that this prognosis, written at the end of June, is proving perfectly
true. I'm still happy with my forecast for the 9th. of slow-moving low
pressures plaguing the UK and giving plenty of rain and I'm searching
the far reaches of the gfs for any signs of a settled summer. To mid-
July, it really does not look good, though there are enough chinks of
high-pressure light, at T240+, through the curtains of rain, to
prevent me from forecasting the extension of these slow-moving lows to
the 14th of July - yet.

Have your brollies handy for this weekend!

Paul