Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Monday.
Issued 0458z, 17th July 2008

GFS shows warm and dry weather spreading across the UK next week, with high
pressure settling over the UK. ECM isn't as keen, though, with a strong jet
forcing a weak high eastwards and leading to a much shorter warm spell
before rain spreads eastwards on Wednesday. The GFS ensembles have been keen
on a warm spell for a couple of days now but the ECM is and has been showing
more of a warm day or two rather than anything longer.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
The UK lies under westerlies, from a ridge to the south and a low far to the
north. Tomorrow the westerlies strengthen as low pressure approaches from
the NW and on Saturday the low deepens east of Scotland. By then WSW'lies
cover most areas, followed by NW'lies on Sunday.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a ridge to the west and over the UK, with upper
NW'lies at the 500hPa level. MetO has upper westerlies and a flat gradient
aloft, while ECM has NW'lies as per GFS. GEM brings upper WNW'lies.
At the surface GFS has SW'lies due to a ridge over the UK, while MetO has
SW'lies and a ridge to the south. ECM brings SW'lies and a weak ridge for
the UK, as does GEM.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM shows SW'lies for all with high pressure just to the south.
The high moves eastwards on day 7, drawing warm or hot southerlies over the
UK.
GFS shows high pressure and light winds for most on day 6. There's little
change on day 7.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM a trough moves in from the west, with westerlies and
WSW'lies. SW'lies cover the UK on day 9 as the trough moves eastwards and on
day 10 another weak trough moves eastwards, with further SW'lies as a
result.
The GFS shows high pressure persisting over the UK on day 8. On day 9 a col
covers the UK and on day 10 a ridge lies to the west, leading to NW'lies and
WNW'lies.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles show a warm spell on the way in a week's time.

On Thu, 17 Jul 2008 at 05:00:55, Darren Prescott
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Monday.
Issued 0458z, 17th July 2008

GFS shows warm and dry weather spreading across the UK next week, with
high pressure settling over the UK. ECM isn't as keen, though

What's ECM's address then, so I can slip them a 'brown envelope'?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)