On Jul 21, 7:54*am, Dawlish wrote:
Away from the NW, there's some lovely weather coming this week. It's
been on the gfs and the ECM, for a while and I see no reason to change
my view that a UK max of 25C will be achieved on most of the days this
week and that the warmest day of the year, so far, will be achieved by
next Monday.

After that, a blocking high over the Baltic splits the jet. It's good
news for the Eastern side of Britain, at least, apart from the actual
coasts which could be plagued by sea fogs, especially in Scotland.
Nothing cold in this, with some warm nights and the CET should rise to
closer to average over the last 10 days of the month.

By the 1st August, at T+264, the high may be beginning to decline,
allowing fronts into the West, but the only rain on those charts for
the SE, until then, is from possible thunderstorms this weekend.

So, it took some time, but summer is here, for most. Enjoy. Now how
can I skive off work??

Paul

This was good, on the whole. The split in the Jet has resolved itself,
quite unexpectedly, into a loop, where it appears to disappear up it's
own backside! It flattens out again, over the weekend, to hurry the
stalled depression over the UK, only to be split by a developing ridge
next week.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/jetstream.asp

The high finally pulls away to the East, allowing the depression in
and the UK, including the SE, is likely to get a wet weekend as a
result. The gfs had a very good handle on these developments from 10
days ago. The consistency then allowed a decently accurate assessment
for today. My next 10-day forecast has its outcome on Monday 3rd
August and it is still looking pretty good - low pressure in charge -
but a ridge and a low to the SW looks like some warm air for Tues/Wed
next week will be pulled towards us before the next low slowly
trundles in. Zonal weather for the next week, but pretty slow progress
by the depressions. Nothing cold; the CET should be in positive
territory by the end of next week, which is a bonus, from how things
were looking a couple of days ago. At 10 days, too much uncertainly
for forecasting. Keep those straws tightly clutched, you sun-lovers!!
*))

Paul