Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0550z, 26th July 2008

ECM shows a warm end to the week, with a col bringing slow-moving showers.
GFS paints a less settled and cooler picture, as low pressure moves swiftly
eastwards towards the end of the week.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A col covers the UK, with light winds for all. The col persists tomorrow,
but by Monday a weak ridge covers the UK. This leads to light ENE'lies and
easterlies, with stronger easterlies on Tuesdau as low pressure moves up
from the south.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a blocking high to the NE and a marked shortwave
pattern over the Atlantic. The UK lies between a trough to the west and the
high to the NE. At the 500hPa level there are southerlies, again with a high
to the NE. MetO has upper southerlies too. ECM shows SSW'lies aloft, while
GEM has a low over England and Wales.
At the surface GFS has SSE'lies ahead of a low to the west. MetO is very
similar, while ECM also shows SSE'lies. GEM brings a trough over the UK with
ESE'lies to the north and SSW'lies to the south.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM shows a trough over Northern Ireland, Scotland and western
Wales. This leads to SSE'lies for most, followed by light winds and a col on
day 7.
GFS shows SSE'lies over the UK on day 6 as low pressure moves slowly
eastwards towards the UK. The low crosses Scotland on day 7, introducing
much cooler SW'lies across the UK.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM low pressure deepens to the WNW, leading to SSW'lies.
There's little change on day 9, but by day 10 the low moves NE'wards and
SW'lies cover the UK.
SW'lies cover the UK on day 8 with GFS, due to a low to the NE and a trough
to the west. A new low lies to the SW on day 9, leading to SE'lies, followed
by a trough over the UK on day 10. By then northerlies cover Scotland and
Northern Ireland, with SW'lies elsewhere.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles continue to show a prolonged warm period.