The start of August certainly looks as if it will be characterised by
low-pressure dominance. My forecast of that, for the 3rd August,
presently looks like that will achieve outcome and we're already
seeing the effects of that falling pressure in the weather changes
over the last 24 hours. After that, any ideas?

Hints of the Azores High ridging towards us at T240, on both the gfs
and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead, but I'd need another 4 gfs
runs to forecast that. At the moment, it doesn't look good, unless
these hints can be translated into something more probable. The first
week of August looks decidedly cooler and wetter than of late.

Paul

On Jul 29, 7:38*am, Dawlish wrote:
The start of August certainly looks as if it will be characterised by
low-pressure dominance. My forecast of that, for the 3rd August,
presently looks like that will achieve outcome and we're already
seeing the effects of that falling pressure in the weather changes
over the last 24 hours. After that, any ideas?

Hints of the Azores High ridging towards us at T240, on both the gfs
and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead, but I'd need another 4 gfs
runs to forecast that. At the moment, it doesn't look good, unless
these hints can be translated into something more probable. The first
week of August looks decidedly cooler and wetter than of late.

Paul

Still some non-"end-of-summer" output from the gfs 06z. Not exactly
Azores High settled stuff, but instead, the UK sits on the Eastern
side of Atlantic troughs, drawing up some warm air. Nothing like
enough confidence for a forecast....but some possibilities of August
warmth. The current swings at T240+, however, suggests that pretty
much anything could happen. Met office goes with "there is still a
hint that conditions may become slightly more settled from the
southwest towards the end of the outlook period." That's the ECM00z/
gfs00z output. OK. That's what it is showing and it is slightly
interesting!

Paul

On Jul 29, 7:38 am, Dawlish wrote:
The start of August certainly looks as if it will be characterised by
low-pressure dominance. My forecast of that, for the 3rd August,
presently looks like that will achieve outcome and we're already
seeing the effects of that falling pressure in the weather changes
over the last 24 hours. After that, any ideas?

Hints of the Azores High ridging towards us at T240, on both the gfs
and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead, but I'd need another 4 gfs
runs to forecast that. At the moment, it doesn't look good, unless
these hints can be translated into something more probable. The first
week of August looks decidedly cooler and wetter than of late.

Paul

What's perhaps encouraging is as soon as the end of the weekend, the
models (including successive GFS) vary. There seems to be at least the
possibility of some reasonable weather as soon as Tues/Wed next week.
Would like the low pressure to keep away till October though,
generally we seem to have got a raw deal in the calendar year 2008
with no prolonged settled spells - except in February. Of course
October will probably be very dry and very warm....

Looking back on June and July, the main theme has been more
unseasonably cool weather than normal rather than excessive rainfall,
particularly in July prior to the 21st. In some ways so far this has
been a typical recent "even year summer" - between 1997 and 2005,
summers seemed to alternate between relatively good odd summers and
relatively poor even summers.

Nick

wrote in message
...
On Jul 29, 7:38 am, Dawlish wrote:
The start of August certainly looks as if it will be characterised by
low-pressure dominance. My forecast of that, for the 3rd August,
presently looks like that will achieve outcome and we're already
seeing the effects of that falling pressure in the weather changes
over the last 24 hours. After that, any ideas?

Hints of the Azores High ridging towards us at T240, on both the gfs
and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead, but I'd need another 4 gfs
runs to forecast that. At the moment, it doesn't look good, unless
these hints can be translated into something more probable. The first
week of August looks decidedly cooler and wetter than of late.

Paul

What's perhaps encouraging is as soon as the end of the weekend, the
models (including successive GFS) vary. There seems to be at least the
possibility of some reasonable weather as soon as Tues/Wed next week.
Would like the low pressure to keep away till October though,
generally we seem to have got a raw deal in the calendar year 2008
with no prolonged settled spells - except in February. Of course
October will probably be very dry and very warm....

Looking back on June and July, the main theme has been more
unseasonably cool weather than normal rather than excessive rainfall,
particularly in July prior to the 21st. In some ways so far this has
been a typical recent "even year summer" - between 1997 and 2005,
summers seemed to alternate between relatively good odd summers and
relatively poor even summers.

Nick



It's been quite reasonable for an "8" year here so far, 4th-20th July being
pretty poor with a lot of cool windy weather (and spoiling my
wedding/honeymoon which I guess exacerbates it's effect!) and a fair bit of
cool windy weather in June as well. Not excessively wet bar July 9th either.
A poor August would put 2008 down as a very typical "8" year... I do know
that up north, it already has.

Jim, Bournemouth

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead,
Paul

I'd say it is, dead that is. The length of the cyclonic spells between the
brief settled spells April/May - the present has been far, far greater
thaqts without resorting to data only my observation.

MY INTERPRETATION::
Based on that then and as the weather declines into August, as it seems to
be on the cards to do, even somewhat, you could take it that the chance of
any more proper decent settled stuff is going to be well into late
September/October even. So earlier darker evenings and rapid cooling after
4pm is whats to look forward to in any possibility of a settled late
September. In between and up to this point its worse of course as it'll be
cyclonic, which results in more clothes to counteract the rain and
chillliness and the closing of the curtains, switching ON of the lights as
our dreadful position of the sun in these latitudes cannot work as useful as
it once did.
Dave R

It's been quite reasonable for an "8" year here so far, 4th-20th July
being pretty poor with a lot of cool windy weather (and spoiling my
wedding/honeymoon which I guess exacerbates it's effect!) and a fair bit
of cool windy weather in June as well.

I don't think this summer so far has been too bad really. June was dry,
sunny and the mean was slightly above the LTA. This July has redeemed itself
after the very wet and cool period of the 8th - 12th with it being quite dry
and reasonably sunny since, and very warm from the 22nd.

The July mean temperature is now at the LTA of 16.8°C and sunshine levels
have recovered somewhat to 186 hours. This is a bit of an improvement on
July 2007 which had a mean temperature of 15.7°C and 181 hours of sunshine
for the whole month.

June 1st - July 29th
Min Max Mean Rain Sun
2007 11.4C 19.7C 15.5C 223 mm 313 hours
2008 11.2C 20.8C 16.0C 128 mm 419 hours

Last summer (up to this date) was colder, wetter and duller.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

On Jul 29, 6:34 pm, "Dave R." wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead,
Paul

I'd say it is, dead that is. The length of the cyclonic spells between the
brief settled spells April/May - the present has been far, far greater
thaqts without resorting to data only my observation.

MY INTERPRETATION::
Based on that then and as the weather declines into August, as it seems to
be on the cards to do, even somewhat, you could take it that the chance of
any more proper decent settled stuff is going to be well into late
September/October even.

Not sure if the first half of August is looking *too* bad - though
(typically, though perhaps less of a big deal this time of year than
others) there seems to be a fairly consistent, if short-lasting, "low
from hell" for the weekend of 9th/10th. Rest of the time though it
looks vaguely passable.

earlier darker evenings and rapid cooling after
4pm is whats to look forward to in any possibility of a settled late
September.

Warm evenings, even after dark, seem more typical of contemporary
Septembers though - even if the day max has not been record breaking.

Nick

On Jul 29, 8:24*pm, wrote:
On Jul 29, 6:34 pm, "Dave R." wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead,
Paul

I'd say it is, dead that is. The length of the cyclonic spells between the
brief settled spells April/May - the present has been far, far greater
thaqts without resorting to data only my observation.

MY INTERPRETATION::
Based on that then and as the weather declines into August, as it seems to
be on the cards to do, even somewhat, you could take it that the chance of
any more proper decent settled stuff is going to be well into late
September/October even.

Not sure if the first half of August is looking *too* bad - though
(typically, though perhaps less of a big deal this time of year than
others) there seems to be a fairly consistent, if short-lasting, "low
from hell" for the weekend of 9th/10th. Rest of the time though it
looks vaguely passable.

earlier darker evenings and rapid cooling after
4pm is whats to look forward to in any possibility of a settled late
September.

Warm evenings, even after dark, seem more typical of contemporary
Septembers though - even if the day max has not been record breaking.

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes; the "low from hell", Nick! It wasn't there on the 06z and then
the 12z gfs promises nothing like as nice conditions and gives us
autumn in the second week of August! Based upon the output over the
last 2 days, I would back cooler and showery, rather than settled and
warm, but there are such surprising changes with each run, at the
moment, that someone would have to offer me decent odds to actually
take the plunge and bet! I suppose I'm clutching at the chance that if
the gfs output is inconsistent, there must be a chance of a decent
August, overall! The problem is that the ECM 12z shows the "low from
hell" as well.

Who knows?.......and I do mean that, as no-one, IMO, at 10 days+,
actually does know. That's the really frustrating, but amazingly
interesting, thing!

Paul

On Jul 29, 10:14*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 29, 8:24*pm, wrote:





On Jul 29, 6:34 pm, "Dave R." wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead,
Paul

I'd say it is, dead that is. The length of the cyclonic spells between the
brief settled spells April/May - the present has been far, far greater
thaqts without resorting to data only my observation.

MY INTERPRETATION::
Based on that then and as the weather declines into August, as it seems to
be on the cards to do, even somewhat, you could take it that the chance of
any more proper decent settled stuff is going to be well into late
September/October even.

Not sure if the first half of August is looking *too* bad - though
(typically, though perhaps less of a big deal this time of year than
others) there seems to be a fairly consistent, if short-lasting, "low
from hell" for the weekend of 9th/10th. Rest of the time though it
looks vaguely passable.

earlier darker evenings and rapid cooling after
4pm is whats to look forward to in any possibility of a settled late
September.

Warm evenings, even after dark, seem more typical of contemporary
Septembers though - even if the day max has not been record breaking.

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes; the "low from hell", Nick! It wasn't there on the 06z and then
the 12z gfs promises nothing like as nice conditions and gives us
autumn in the second week of August! Based upon the output over the
last 2 days, I would back cooler and showery, rather than settled and
warm, but there are such surprising changes with each run, at the
moment, that someone would have to offer me decent odds to actually
take the plunge and bet! I suppose I'm clutching at the chance that if
the gfs output is inconsistent, there must be a chance of a decent
August, overall! The problem is that the ECM 12z shows the "low from
hell" as well.

Who knows?.......and I do mean that, as no-one, IMO, at 10 days+,
actually does know. That's the really frustrating, but amazingly
interesting, thing!

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

As I thought. A complete lack of consistency and anything could
happen. Where's the "low from hell" on the 18z gfs? Gone. Possibly
never to be remembered, but you never can tell! Sleep well all; summer
still slumbers and is not yet dead - but I wouldn't back it's return,
just yet.

Paul

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
summer still slumbers and is not yet dead - but I wouldn't back it's return,
just yet.

Paul

Slummer still slumbers? my arse it does. This is plainly riduculous Dawlish
if you are not backing its return just yet, then when are you? You [and all
of us] ain't got much left of summer, once August is out thats it and dont
everyone start on about you can get some decent Septembers I've heard all
that clutching at straws before. What, at 21C mid afternoon? big deal - ha
thats Autumn or colloquilly known as an 'Indian Summer' not proper summer.
DaveR