On Aug 1, 6:55 pm, starrin wrote:
On Fri, 1 Aug 2008 10:09:18 -0700 (PDT), Weatherlawyer
wrote:

That major quake in Szechuan China some weeks ago, occurred with quite
a spate of tornadoes in the USA. This led me to suspect that there is
a relationship with them.

Some years ago I noticed a relationship with arthritis and
earthquakes, then storms in Madagasgar then tornadoes in the USA.

For some reason I thought I could "get" when there was a spate of
tornadoes as they were a "given" with attacks of cramp.

So here I am now, looking at the relationship between Californian
quakes, USA's Mid Western tornadoes and Chinese earthquakes. There are
no reports of tornadoes in the USA at the moment. In fact there is a
marked paucity of the weather related to them:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080801_rpts.html

What there is is this:
5.8 M. 08/01. 32.0 N. 104.7 E. CHINA

I damn near flunked statistics but I thought that correlations were
never proof of causation for anything - no matter how much you
correlate.

And that is why I am not interested in Laws and Proofs that only serve
to break the minds of youngsters that should be out in god's good
earth earning a living and having money in their pockets.

All I am trying to do is point out obvious flaws in the concepts,
beliefs and theories the unwary follow as though there is some
religious providence in them, instead of being prepared for the worst
when it looks like the planet is Going Postal.

As it happens I started doing this because there was a religious
controversy brewing in the New Russia when one of the satellite
states in it had suffered a devastating earthquake.

I was thinking people would be writing that off as an act of god
(whilst the BBC was carefully only reporting which religious
denomination got provenance for a thousand years of sheep shearing.)

The woefully inadequate help the Azerbaijani's received went on not
happening for years. But worst of all was the quake happened in a
wintery spell when the homeless survivors could have used the shelter
that neither so called Christian church was offering.

Take a look at this chart and tell me if there is a relationship with
the Highs and Lows reaching into the North Atlantic from the Carolinas
and the number of low intensity earthquakes occurring on the other
side of North America:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...me=00&Type=pnm

I can't remember which it is supposed to be Highs or Lows and it will
mean me search my computer for the graphics I saved, before I can find
out. Blow that.

I can wait for the next installment.

I think you can find archives of these charts and of course the NEIC
list is intimately searchable. (Nothing like the state of the art in
Exitdoor.)

All I am offering is a short-hand way of looking at things that are
just as meaningful as watching a weather forecast is in foretelling
the situation in your region. YMWV!

It is beyond statistical analysis. It's easier to Zen it and just give
QEDs pudding ate that way.

However, long term data analysis will throw up interesting bell
curves.

Here is another one:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html

The North Atlantic chart from there is giving a different picture of
events altogether from the one on he
http://www.cuckney.pwp.blueyonder.co...r/Dorridge.htm

When the charts vary remarkably, when meteorologists are wrong or
unsure of their forecasts, then be sure that a severe earthquake is
pending. You usually get a few days to prepare.

There is almost always time to purchase a can for water (keep it half
full for fear compression will burst it) a mobile phone (keep it
topped up as the lines will blank initially) a whistle (keep it on a
lanyard around your neck) and a pick and shovel (for digging your
neighbours out of an hole or for digging an hole for disposing of your
waste.)

And there is usually time for people like me to make predictions about
them. This spell has changed from that mind-wipingly muggy one we just
had. Whether it is supposed to be a damp fresh "not all that
unpleasant" spell, I can't say.

If it isn't, the quake will arrive mid-spell, as it rights itself. If
things are plodding on nicely, the quake will arrive at the end of the
synergy. That is when all the parts of the syndrome synergise.
Afterwards, you will see the Low in the North Atlantic has faded away
or moved half a continent.

Whether I am deluding myself or am being blessed by a most remarkable
"being" remains to be seen. I am not dying to find out if I don't have
to. (Hope dei, die I ex all.)

Well that's enough of me being cleva. Time to get out in the garden.
Byee.

On Aug 2, 11:36 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Take a look at this chart and tell me if there is a relationship with
the Highs and Lows reaching into the North Atlantic from the Carolinas
and the number of low intensity earthquakes occurring on the other
side of North America: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...our=0&Day=0&Ru...

I can't remember which it is supposed to be Highs or Lows and it will
mean me search my computer for the graphics I saved, before I can find
out. Blow that.

Who care which one it is? What if it turns out to be both? Me saying
the worng one just means I am lackadaisical. Would I be thus if I were
in a position of authority?

Who cares? I don't believe I am in any responsible post, touched by
god or not. I don't want anyone to die, that's the main thing. As it
happens I don't think anyone reads my stuff with the diligence it
deserves.

But then I believe half the people in a sophisticated continent voted
for a monkey, so what do I know?

But what was I expecting? A pension and a medal?
Me?

Who from?
A science body?
A politician?

What could either of those offer me? I happen to have everything I
could possibly want from them. They leave me the hell alone!

On Aug 2, 11:36*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Aug 1, 6:55 pm, starrin wrote:





On Fri, 1 Aug 2008 10:09:18 -0700 (PDT), Weatherlawyer
wrote:


When the charts vary remarkably, when meteorologists are wrong or
unsure of their forecasts, then be sure that a severe earthquake is
pending. You usually get a few days to prepare.

Byee.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Back again? So; now you can use the North Atlantic weather charts to
predict a "major" earthquake, W.

In W-speak, 2 points. Firstly, the weather charts are not "varying
remarkably", they are pretty well set that we will have low pressure
dominance in 8-10 days time. You don't follow those charts closely
enough and you know little about them, so it's not surprising you
don't know that. That's got nothing to do with the actual outcome,
it's just what they've shown for about 36 hours - consistency.
(However, please don't use your lack of knowledge as an escape route,
at the end of next week, if a "major" earthquake hasn't happened. Your
statement clearly states that they ARE "varying remarkably", at
present.)

Secondly; the North Atlantic occupies only about 10% of the Earth's
surface area; much less if you don't include the tropical areas. Why
should that partiicular area be so important?

Thirdly; no location, no area, no intensity in this forecast of a
"major" earthquake, as usual. I'll be generous and give you a full
week, even though you say that people "have a few days" to prepare,
but I'll expect an earthquake of 7.5+ to qualify for "major". The
earthquake can occur anywhere in the world.

Fourthly; if this link is strong, why couldn't you predict Sichuan?
And why habve you missed every other large earthquake and volcanic
eruption of this year?

I'll judge it at outcome and pass comment on how scientific your
statement was then. Good luck.

I was wondering whether the dying back of my aunt Flos purple sprouting
broccolli and the recent tidal wave in Abu Dhabi were connected, the
explanation of other events from the weatherlawyer makes you think donnit
.......


RonB

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
...
On Aug 1, 6:55 pm, starrin wrote:
On Fri, 1 Aug 2008 10:09:18 -0700 (PDT), Weatherlawyer
wrote:

That major quake in Szechuan China some weeks ago, occurred with quite
a spate of tornadoes in the USA. This led me to suspect that there is
a relationship with them.

Some years ago I noticed a relationship with arthritis and
earthquakes, then storms in Madagasgar then tornadoes in the USA.

For some reason I thought I could "get" when there was a spate of
tornadoes as they were a "given" with attacks of cramp.

So here I am now, looking at the relationship between Californian
quakes, USA's Mid Western tornadoes and Chinese earthquakes. There are
no reports of tornadoes in the USA at the moment. In fact there is a
marked paucity of the weather related to them:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080801_rpts.html

What there is is this:
5.8 M. 08/01. 32.0 N. 104.7 E. CHINA

I damn near flunked statistics but I thought that correlations were
never proof of causation for anything - no matter how much you
correlate.

And that is why I am not interested in Laws and Proofs that only serve
to break the minds of youngsters that should be out in god's good
earth earning a living and having money in their pockets.

All I am trying to do is point out obvious flaws in the concepts,
beliefs and theories the unwary follow as though there is some
religious providence in them, instead of being prepared for the worst
when it looks like the planet is Going Postal.

As it happens I started doing this because there was a religious
controversy brewing in the New Russia when one of the satellite
states in it had suffered a devastating earthquake.

I was thinking people would be writing that off as an act of god
(whilst the BBC was carefully only reporting which religious
denomination got provenance for a thousand years of sheep shearing.)

The woefully inadequate help the Azerbaijani's received went on not
happening for years. But worst of all was the quake happened in a
wintery spell when the homeless survivors could have used the shelter
that neither so called Christian church was offering.

Take a look at this chart and tell me if there is a relationship with
the Highs and Lows reaching into the North Atlantic from the Carolinas
and the number of low intensity earthquakes occurring on the other
side of North America:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...me=00&Type=pnm

I can't remember which it is supposed to be Highs or Lows and it will
mean me search my computer for the graphics I saved, before I can find
out. Blow that.

I can wait for the next installment.

I think you can find archives of these charts and of course the NEIC
list is intimately searchable. (Nothing like the state of the art in
Exitdoor.)

All I am offering is a short-hand way of looking at things that are
just as meaningful as watching a weather forecast is in foretelling
the situation in your region. YMWV!

It is beyond statistical analysis. It's easier to Zen it and just give
QEDs pudding ate that way.

However, long term data analysis will throw up interesting bell
curves.

Here is another one:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html

The North Atlantic chart from there is giving a different picture of
events altogether from the one on he
http://www.cuckney.pwp.blueyonder.co...r/Dorridge.htm

When the charts vary remarkably, when meteorologists are wrong or
unsure of their forecasts, then be sure that a severe earthquake is
pending. You usually get a few days to prepare.

There is almost always time to purchase a can for water (keep it half
full for fear compression will burst it) a mobile phone (keep it
topped up as the lines will blank initially) a whistle (keep it on a
lanyard around your neck) and a pick and shovel (for digging your
neighbours out of an hole or for digging an hole for disposing of your
waste.)

And there is usually time for people like me to make predictions about
them. This spell has changed from that mind-wipingly muggy one we just
had. Whether it is supposed to be a damp fresh "not all that
unpleasant" spell, I can't say.

If it isn't, the quake will arrive mid-spell, as it rights itself. If
things are plodding on nicely, the quake will arrive at the end of the
synergy. That is when all the parts of the syndrome synergise.
Afterwards, you will see the Low in the North Atlantic has faded away
or moved half a continent.

Whether I am deluding myself or am being blessed by a most remarkable
"being" remains to be seen. I am not dying to find out if I don't have
to. (Hope dei, die I ex all.)

Well that's enough of me being cleva. Time to get out in the garden.
Byee.

On Aug 2, 6:42 pm, "ronaldbutton" wrote:
Top posting removed for clarity and the extraneous material deleted.

You little sweetie.

In article ,
"ronaldbutton" wrote:

I was wondering whether the dying back of my aunt Flos purple sprouting
broccolli and the recent tidal wave in Abu Dhabi were connected, the
explanation of other events from the weatherlawyer makes you think donnit

Nawww. The trees on the hill behind where I live were waving back and
forth a lot. That seems to have caused a bit of a wind around here, and
that's what led to the stuff you're talking about.

--
Timberwoof me at timberwoof dot com http://www.timberwoof.com
"When you post sewage, don't blame others for
emptying chamber pots in your direction." ‹Chris L.

On Aug 2, 11:56 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

But then I believe half the people in a sophisticated continent voted
for a monkey, so what do I know?

This is what happens when a small low centred over Iceland dissipates
or become ameliorated in the continuum:

4.1 00:53 AEGEAN SEA
5.2 00:39 AEGEAN SEA

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...uakes_all.html

These quakes occurred in almost identical places according to
preliminary data. They were about 1/4hr apart with no others reported
earthwide falling between.

Whilst it is reasonable to assume this should occur on every such
occasion until one grasps the tenets of fluid mechanics and the
extreme difficulty involved in forecasting the simplest events in it.

Consider the fluid dynamic of a mug of water, an analogy favoured by
Albert Einstein in one famous epigramme.

He pointed out the behaviour of tea leaves in a stirred cup of tea
explained how rivers bend. (Actually it seems more like the behaviour
of salt domes to me. Maybe it's both.)

But consider the heat effect when superheating occurs. Overboil some
water in a mug in a microwave oven and then put a Sweetex pill in the
mug. The bubbles rising will not betray their source.

Actually knowing why they spin away from above the pill will help you
understand why forecasting weather and seismicity is so difficult. Of
course it would be more help to be told that god knows how weather and
seismology occur. Well, god and me, but I am not too clear how the
"three body problem" resolved into an acoustical one.

All the meteorologist does is compare the pressure and temperature
readings from a vast pool of data. I doubt very much if he even
considers why these pressure changes behave the way they do.

It is certainly not the impression they give on uk.sci.weather that
for example the changes to Rossby wave set ups has to have a cause.
Seismologists at least deserve credit for trying to come up with
reasons for their theories -however dull they appear.

(And yes I am well aware of the fact that the main cause of weather is
heat from the sun. Are you aware that all you'd need is a calendar to
forecast it if there wasn't a lot more to it?)

Interesting design concept he
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam...pac_gale_0.gif

More interesting stuff:
2.9 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2.6 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

3.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
2.7 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA

3.3 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
2.5 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2.9 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
2.8 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
4.6 NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
4.1 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
2.9 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
2.9 NORTHERN ALASKA
2.8 PUERTO RICO REGION
2.6 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
3 GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA

On Aug 3, 5:52*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Interesting design concept he https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_pac_ga...

More interesting stuff:
2.9 * * *NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2.6 * * *NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

3.1 * * *FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
2.7 * * *FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA

3.3 * * *SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
2.5 * * *NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2.9 * * *FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
2.8 * * *KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
4.6 * * *NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
4.1 * * *SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
2.9 * * *RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
2.9 * * *NORTHERN ALASKA
2.8 * * *PUERTO RICO REGION
2.6 * * *NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
3 * * * *GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA

6 days to go. The last earthquake of 7.0, or above was on 19th July,
two weeks ago. USGS has an average of 17 earthquakes of 7.0, or above,
each year since 1990, about 1.5 per month. The last earthquake of 7.5
was on 5th July, about a month ago, as a guess, from their frequency
table, I'd say there are about 5/6 earthquakes of 7.5+ per year. I
would would back against a 7.5+ earthquake occurring in the next 6
days and also against a 7.0+, based on that kind of frequency.

You know this W, very well. Your predictions about earthquakes tend to
come when there has not been a large earthquake for a while and
sometimes you'll get lucky, however, you push your luck a little bit
and you are with the likelihood of a major earthquake here.

Get it right once and people will say it's pure coincidence (sorry,
but your record does not inpire confidence; they may well say nothing
at all, too). Get it right twice running and people will take notice,
including me. Get the prediction of a major earthquake right three
times and you're onto something that the whole seismological community
would have to take notice of. Raise that percentage rate to, say, 50%,
over time and - wow! Have a success rate of 17% (1 in 6, in just over
3 months) and don't be surprised if people don't take your ideas
seriously. You have to be able to use your theories to gain a
reasonable forecast outcome percentage rate, or your ideas are
worthless. Your theories have to have application. Your fingers must
be crossed for a major earthquake occurring in the next 6 days. That
would raise your success rate to 2 in 7, or 29%, in almost 3.5 months.
You need a straight run of 4 correct forecasts to raise that
percentage rate to 5 in 10, or 50%.

Tough, this prediction game, when it is monitored, isn't it? You'd get
much more kudos if you monitored it yourself and explained your
faliures and your odd success against chance, instead of simply
focusing on connections which hardly anyone else in the whole
scientific community acknowledges and your own forecasting success
rates are suggesting, very strongly, are spurious.

Forgive me for not reading your stuff Dawlish but you seem to find me
somewhat offensive. re you not missing out on one of the key factors
in the use of this medium; you can easily ignore me if you wish.

I would like to help you but I just wouldn't know where to start.
Perhaps you might look at posts of people much like yourself who see
Usenet as the tool you see it as.

They seem to get locked into frustrating posts with others of similar
tastes and ultimately accomplish little in the way of anything
beneficial for either protagonist.

They do tend to monoplise long threads of hurled abuse which is
tiresome to say the least. Not that that stands in much contrast with
most of my threads except that my threads tend to contain half the
arguments and half the number of posters to it.

Do yourself a favour lad, before you have a seisure and do us all a
favour.

There's a good boy.