On Aug 13, 7:54 pm, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Pressure In Berne writes:

Yes, another utterly uselsess forecast by Dawlish.
Youre wasting your time. No ones interested.

Wrong. And you needn't think that having changed your Usenet identity
means that we can't guess who you are.
--
John Hall "George the Third
Ought never to have occurred.
One can only wonder
At so grotesque a blunder." E.C.Bentley (1875-1956)

Back to the forecast, what's a bit annoying is the way that weekend
low is only moving very very slowly east, bothering northern Germany
and putting us in northerlies for the second half of next week. Let's
hope they're of the "showery" variety rather than the "North Sea
gloom" variety - neither are ideal but the former infinitely more
bearable. Last minute holidays to NW Scotland or Ireland, or the far
west of Cornwall, anyone?

Then finally warm weather appears to arrive - perhaps preventing this
being a notably cool August which it would have been otherwise. Quite
a lot of similarity to August 2007 there (which was also bothered by a
deep low this week, and a northerly next week, and ended fine - though
started fine as well so was much better overall, assuming no dramatic
heatwave soon) - so let's hope the similarity spills over into
September and October. But *not* the coming winter...

Nick

On Aug 13, 8:54*pm, wrote:
On Aug 13, 7:54 pm, John Hall wrote:

In article ,
*Pressure In Berne writes:

Yes, another utterly uselsess forecast by Dawlish.
Youre wasting your time. No ones interested.

Wrong. And you needn't think that having changed your Usenet identity
means that we can't guess who you are.
--
John Hall * * *"George the Third
* * * * * * * * Ought never to have occurred.
* * * * * * * * One can only wonder
* * * * * * * * At so grotesque a blunder." * * E.C..Bentley (1875-1956)

Back to the forecast, what's a bit annoying is the way that weekend
low is only moving very very slowly east, bothering northern Germany
and putting us in northerlies for the second half of next week. Let's
hope they're of the "showery" variety rather than the "North Sea
gloom" variety - neither are ideal but the former infinitely more
bearable. Last minute holidays to NW Scotland or Ireland, or the far
west of Cornwall, anyone?

Then finally warm weather appears to arrive - perhaps preventing this
being a notably cool August which it would have been otherwise. Quite
a lot of similarity to August 2007 there (which was also bothered by a
deep low this week, and a northerly next week, and ended fine - though
started fine as well so was much better overall, assuming no dramatic
heatwave soon) - so let's hope the similarity spills over into
September and October. But *not* the coming winter...

Nick

The 06z is better. Higher pressure just after my forecast day *(( ,
but a plume again at T300. That's a reappearance and that, in my book,
is interesting. See if it stays on the gfs.

Paul

I thought this newsgroup was about discussion of uk weather. Not how
good dawlish claims to be. Im entitled to my opinion, thats was usenet
is all about.

This is following his regular pattern of self gloating and dismissal of
all others. He will qoute made up figures of how good hes and how bad
the met office are, if fact in a few months from now he will have a
bunch of stats claiming how good he his and how much better he his than
that IBM computer in exeter.

Hes just a weather betting addict. Its the same old usual "There will be
high pressure in 2 weeks on tuesday afternoon at 3pm".



John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Pressure In Berne writes:
Yes, another utterly uselsess forecast by Dawlish.
Youre wasting your time. No ones interested.

Wrong. And you needn't think that having changed your Usenet identity
means that we can't guess who you are.

On Aug 14, 10:00*pm, Pressure In Berne wrote:
I thought this newsgroup was about discussion of uk weather. Not how
good dawlish claims to be. Im entitled to my opinion, thats was usenet
is all about.

This is following his regular pattern of self gloating and dismissal of
all others. He will qoute made up figures of how good hes and how bad
the met office are, if fact in a few months from now he will have a
bunch of stats claiming how good he his and how much better he his than
that IBM computer in exeter.

Hes just a weather betting addict. Its the same old usual "There will be
high pressure in 2 weeks on tuesday afternoon at 3pm".



John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Pressure In Berne writes:
Yes, another utterly uselsess forecast by Dawlish.
Youre wasting your time. No ones interested.

Wrong. And you needn't think that having changed your Usenet identity
means that we can't guess who you are.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not looking good for Tuesday's forecast, but I haven't seen such a
split in the ECM and gfs at 5 days, in quite a while. For My week in
Cornwall, I'd rather have the ECM!

I let my stalker judge my forecast.

Paul

Oh dear , another rubbish forecast. They are really turning out to be
howlers now.
Funny how he does a bunk when it comes to judgement day.
LOL


Dawlish wrote:
Summer is not over! (well, there's a 75-80% chance that it is not
over!)

On Tuesday, 19th August, much of the UK will be dominated by high
pressure. The weather will be settled, with plenty of sunshine and
warmer than average daytime temperatures. The majority of the UK will
be dry and most of us will have breathed a big sigh of relief to get
rid of the low pressures, cood temperatures and wet conditions that
will have plagued us in the preceeding week.

The coming week looks dreadful, but I think the weather will improve
towards the 19th. Right in the middle of my holiday in Cornwall too!
No guearantees that it will stay to the bank holiday, but this
increases the chances that it will.

Paul

"Pressure In Berne" wrote in message
...
Oh dear , another rubbish forecast. They are really turning out to be
howlers now.
Funny how he does a bunk when it comes to judgement day.
LOL

I already slagged him about it when it was obvious a huge low was takin up
position, you're a bit late even though todays the day of the High
Pressure ---oh an I think hes on holiday
Dave R

On Aug 18, 8:56 pm, Pressure In Berne wrote:
Oh dear , another rubbish forecast. They are really turning out to be
howlers now.
Funny how he does a bunk when it comes to judgement day.
LOL

Well he's on holiday :-)
And it wasn't a bad forecast, it's just the potential high pressure
this week has been spoilt by an extra small low crossing the area from
late Wednesday to early Friday. If that hadn't formed it'd be spot on.

Nick

On Tue, 19 Aug 2008 06:58:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote:

...
And it wasn't a bad forecast, it's just the potential high pressure
this week has been spoilt by an extra small low crossing the area from
late Wednesday to early Friday. If that hadn't formed it'd be spot on.

So every time a forecast is wrong it's not the fault of the forecaster,
it's the fault of the weather for not conforming to the forecast.

Hmmm...some dodgy logic there.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

On Aug 19, 3:45 pm, Alan White wrote:
On Tue, 19 Aug 2008 06:58:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
...
And it wasn't a bad forecast, it's just the potential high pressure
this week has been spoilt by an extra small low crossing the area from
late Wednesday to early Friday. If that hadn't formed it'd be spot on.

So every time a forecast is wrong it's not the fault of the forecaster,
it's the fault of the weather for not conforming to the forecast.

Hmmm...some dodgy logic there.

What I was trying to say is that Dawlish was correct about the end to
the very cyclonic spell of the past two weeks around now, and that we
are moving into a spell where high pressure has more of an influence.
As so often happens though, a minor low has formed which has kept the
high further out in the Atlantic than expected. I think you've got to
give credit where credit's due.

Nick

On 19 Aug, 17:57, wrote:
On Aug 19, 3:45 pm, Alan White wrote:

On Tue, 19 Aug 2008 06:58:37 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
...
And it wasn't a bad forecast, it's just the potential high pressure
this week has been spoilt by an extra small low crossing the area from
late Wednesday to early Friday. If that hadn't formed it'd be spot on.

So every time a forecast is wrong it's not the fault of the forecaster,
it's the fault of the weather for not conforming to the forecast.

Hmmm...some dodgy logic there.

What I was trying to say is that Dawlish was correct about the end to
the very cyclonic spell of the past two weeks around now, and that we
are moving into a spell where high pressure has more of an influence.
As so often happens though, a minor low has formed which has kept the
high further out in the Atlantic than expected. I think you've got to
give credit where credit's due.

Nick

There was low with a central pressure of 994mb just off Yorkshire at
noon - hardly a minor low considering it's August. Totally different
to the 240hrs GFS prediction which Dawlish used - claiming in some
inexplicable way that it was his forecast.

People like Darren add value to the model prediction by providing a
very useful summary. Dawlish just finds one (his favourite is GFS) and
claims it as his own forecast. If I was to claim a model prediction as
my own forecast I'd choose something like the ENS Ensemble Model.

Graham
Penzance