Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Friday.
Issued 0504z, 11th August 2008

The models are split today. ECM shows a low bringing rain for all during the
weekend, while ECM has a slack trough on Saturday being replaced by a ridge
on Sunday. Both models go on to show increasingly settled weather the
following week.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Lows lie to the NW and NE, with SW'lies for all. Southerlies affect the UK
tomorrow as a low fills to the west, followed by strong westerlies and
WSW'lies for most on Wednesday as the low moves over Scotland. Thursday sees
SW'lies for all with low pressure to the ENE.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong and zonal southerly tracking jet. At the
500hPa level there's a northerly flow over the UK, with a weak ridge to the
west. MetO has a shallow trough aloft and ECM brings a trough to the west,
with SW'lies aloft. GEM has upper SW'lies too, again with a trough to the
west.
At the surface GFS brings a weak ridge over Scotland and a shallow trough
elsewhere. Light NW'lies cover the UK with MetO, due to a ridge to the west.
ECM has a shallow trough and light winds for all, while GEM has a light
ridge and light NW'lies.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings low pressure to the WSW and SE'lies across the UK. Low
pressure covers England and Wales on day 7, with ENE'lies elsewhere.
A ridge covers Scotland on day 6 with GFS, leading to light northerlies and
NE'lies over much of the UK. northerlies persist on day 7 as the ridge
continues to cover Scotland.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM low pressure lies to the east, leading to NW'lies. NW'lies
persist on day 9 as a ridge approaches from the west and on day 10 the ridge
crosses the UK, with WSW'lies for all.
The winds become NW'lies on day 8 with GFS due to a ridge over the UK.
There's little change on day 9 and on day 10 high pressure builds to the
west, with NNW'lies as a result.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles show a cool week, followed by a return to average
temperatures.