Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Sunday.
Issued 0505z, 27th August 2008

The first half of next week will see cooler and wetter conditions across the
UK as a trough moves eastwards. Beyond that the models split, with ECM
showing warm or very warm SSE'lies, while GFS keeps things cooler.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
SW'lies cover the UK, with low pressure over Iceland and a high to the
south. WSW'lies affect the UK tomorrow with little overall change, followed
by further WSW'lies on Friday. Saturday sees southerlies and SE'lies as
pressure rises to the east.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a trough to the west and a ridge to the east, with
the jet heading northwards over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a
southerly flow, as is the case with MetO and ECM. GEM has upper SSW'lies.
At the surface GFS shows a low to the north and SSW'lies for the UK. MetO
has a trough and light winds over the UK, as is the case with ECM. GEM
brings SSW'lies with a trough over Scotland.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings SSW'lies due to a low to the NW. There are WSW'lies on
day 7 as the low fills and moves eastwards.
Low pressure lies to the west on day 6 with GFS, leading to SSW'lies. Day 7
sees westerlies and WNW'lies as the low crosses the UK.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM SSE'lies cover the UK, with a large low to the west. The
winds strengthen on day 9 as the low deepens. On day 10 there's little
change, with brisk SSE'lies for the UK.
SW'lies cover the UK on day 8 with GFS, due to a low north of Scotland.
SSE'lies affect the UK on day 9 as a low deepens to the west and on day 10
there's little change.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles continue to show a warm and dry rest of the week, followed by
a marked change to cooler and wetter conditions next week.

On Aug 27, 6:06*am, "Darren Prescott"
wrote:

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Sunday.
Issued 0505z, 27th August 2008

The first half of next week will see cooler and wetter conditions across the
UK as a trough moves eastwards. Beyond that the models split, with ECM
showing warm or very warm SSE'lies, while GFS keeps things cooler.

Hard to see how it can get much wetter though the Icelandic Low has
been very kind to us in this part of the Midlands.

With the slight split in interpretation I dare say there will a
continuance in the seismic events we are seeing.

All very interesting if not too dangerous.
136 hours of sunshine is Shetland so far this August according to the
BBC. So that Icelandic Low is as good as an Azores high for some of
us.

Good-oh!

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
net...
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Sunday.
Issued 0505z, 27th August 2008

The first half of next week will see cooler and wetter conditions across
the
UK as a trough moves eastwards. Beyond that the models split, with ECM
showing warm or very warm SSE'lies, while GFS keeps things cooler.

From what I saw of EC's 00Z operational run the general flow next week was
from the W or SW, rather than SSE, with average-ish looking temperatures and
a generally unsettled theme ?
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_...p00_9panel.gif

Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ...

From what I saw of EC's 00Z operational run the general flow next week was
from the W or SW, rather than SSE, with average-ish looking temperatures
and
a generally unsettled theme ?
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_...p00_9panel.gif
Bear in mind that at the time I write the analysis each morning, the only
ECM output available is the previous day's 12z output! It seems it changed a
fair bit this time between ther 12z and 0z runs.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
net...
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ...

From what I saw of EC's 00Z operational run the general flow next week
was
from the W or SW, rather than SSE, with average-ish looking temperatures
and
a generally unsettled theme ?
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_...p00_9panel.gif
Bear in mind that at the time I write the analysis each morning, the only
ECM output available is the previous day's 12z output! It seems it changed
a
fair bit this time between ther 12z and 0z runs.


Ahh, yes, that explains it.

Jon.