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Old August 29th 08, 06:02 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (29/08/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0501z, 29th August 2008

The middle of next week will see unsettled and cool weather across the UK,
with more settled conditions moving in from the west by the end of the
working week.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A weak ridge covers the UK, with westerlies and WSW'lies as a result.
Tomorrow sees southerlies ahead of a trough to the west, followed by
SSE'lies as a trough moves eastwards on Sunday. By Monday low pressure
covers Scotland with WSW'lies elsewhere.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a trough to the west and the jet heads NE'wards
over England and Wales. At the 500hPa level there's a trough over the UK,
while MetO has upper SW'lies instead. ECM brings an upper trough over
Scotland and Northern Ireland, with upper SW'lies elsewhere. GEM is
unavailable today.
At the surface GFS shows a trough over Scotland and a mixture of westerlies
and SW'lies elsewhere. MetO has a col for Scotland and Northern Ireland,
with a weak ridge bringing SSW'lies for England and Wales. A shallow low
covers Ireland with ECM, leading to light winds over England, Wales and
Northern Ireland. Scotland is affected by NW'lies from a trough to the NE.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings a trough to the east and moderate northerlies /
NNW'lies for the UK. On day 7 a ridge approaches from the west, with lighter
NW'lies for all.
A shallow trough covers the UK on day 6 with GFS. England and Wales lie
under light SW'lies, with light NNW'lies elsewhere. A ridge moves eastwards
on day 7, bringing light winds.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM a ridge covers the UK, with light winds for all. Day 9
sees a trough moving over Ireland with SSE'lies for the UK and by day 10
there's a trough over Scotland and Northern Ireland, with SW'lies elsewhere.
Moderate SSW'lies cover much of the UK on day 8 with GFS as a ridge
approaches from the west; the exception is SE England which lies under light
winds. Day 9 sees WSW'lies for all as the trough moves eastwards, followed
by further WSW'lies from a weak ridge on day 10.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles show a marked change from very warm air aloft to much cooler
and less settled conditions next week.



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