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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0448z, 19th September 2008 A spell of easterlies and NE'lies looks likely for the latter half of the working week, with high pressure over Scandinavia. Over the weekend a new high will form to thee NW, backing the winds NNE'ly or northerly. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png High pressure lies to the SW, leading to SW'lies over much of the UK. Tomorrow the high builds over England and Wales, with SSW'lies elsewhere. Sunday sees southerlies over the UK as the high moves eastwards and a trough approaches Scotland from the west. On Monday high pressure moves over Scotland and Northern Ireland, with ENE'lies for England and Wales. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a strong and northerly tracking jet, with the jet passing NE'wards over Iceland. At the 500hPa level there's an upper high over and to the north of Scotland. MetO has an upper high over the UK, while ECM shows a high to the north. GEM shows a high to the west and upper NE'lies for the UK. At the surface, GFS shows a high over the NOrthern Isles and ENE'lies for the UK. MetO has a high over the UK with light winds for all, while ECM is closer to GFS with NE'lies and a high to the north. GEM shows a high over Scotland, leading to NE'lies for the Midlands southwards and light winds elsewhere. Evolution to T+168 Day 6 with ECM brings a large high to the NE and ENE'lies for all. The high builds over Scandinavia on day 7, with easterlies across the UK. On day 6 GFS shows ENE'lies with high pressure over southern Norway. There's little change on day 7. Looking further afield On day 8 with ECM there are ENE'lies for all, with high pressure over the Baltic. On day 9 a new high builds to the NW as the Scandinavian high declines. NE'lies are the result, followed by NNE'lies on day 10 as the high to the NW builds. ENE'lies cover the UK on day 8 with GFS, due to a large high to the NE. On day 9 the high declines, with a new high moving SE'wards from Greenland. NNE'lies are the result, followed by northerlies on day 10 as the high to the NW builds. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The ensembles show temperatures remaining relatively static for the next week, with generally dry conditions. |
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