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Old September 19th 08, 05:49 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (19/09/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0448z, 19th September 2008

A spell of easterlies and NE'lies looks likely for the latter half of the
working week, with high pressure over Scandinavia. Over the weekend a new
high will form to thee NW, backing the winds NNE'ly or northerly.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
High pressure lies to the SW, leading to SW'lies over much of the UK.
Tomorrow the high builds over England and Wales, with SSW'lies elsewhere.
Sunday sees southerlies over the UK as the high moves eastwards and a trough
approaches Scotland from the west. On Monday high pressure moves over
Scotland and Northern Ireland, with ENE'lies for England and Wales.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong and northerly tracking jet, with the jet
passing NE'wards over Iceland. At the 500hPa level there's an upper high
over and to the north of Scotland. MetO has an upper high over the UK, while
ECM shows a high to the north. GEM shows a high to the west and upper
NE'lies for the UK.
At the surface, GFS shows a high over the NOrthern Isles and ENE'lies for
the UK. MetO has a high over the UK with light winds for all, while ECM is
closer to GFS with NE'lies and a high to the north. GEM shows a high over
Scotland, leading to NE'lies for the Midlands southwards and light winds
elsewhere.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings a large high to the NE and ENE'lies for all. The high
builds over Scandinavia on day 7, with easterlies across the UK.
On day 6 GFS shows ENE'lies with high pressure over southern Norway. There's
little change on day 7.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM there are ENE'lies for all, with high pressure over the
Baltic. On day 9 a new high builds to the NW as the Scandinavian high
declines. NE'lies are the result, followed by NNE'lies on day 10 as the high
to the NW builds.
ENE'lies cover the UK on day 8 with GFS, due to a large high to the NE. On
day 9 the high declines, with a new high moving SE'wards from Greenland.
NNE'lies are the result, followed by northerlies on day 10 as the high to
the NW builds.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles show temperatures remaining relatively static for the next
week, with generally dry conditions.



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