.... not labelled as such, but the Low on the bottom/left of the ASXX
12Z he-

http://www.weather.org.uk/charts/UKCpf000.gif

is Tropical Storm 'Laura' see various guidance below ex-NHC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...nd120#contents

000
WTNT42 KNHC 301433
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

WHILE SOMEWHAT OF A PARADOX...LAURA CAN NOW BE DESIGNATED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. THE ONE ASPECT WHICH
WAS HOLDING US BACK FROM DECLARING IT TROPICAL WAS THE UPPER LOW
COLLOCATED WITH THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME OFFSET AND STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
LAURA...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTINUED TO CONTRACT TO ABOUT 60 NM.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD...BUT THAT IS QUITE
NORMAL FOR HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL CYCLONES DUE TO THE LOWER
TROPOPAUSE. FRANKLY...LAURA NOW LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM.

THEREAFTER...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING AND AN EXPANSION OF
THE WIND FIELD COULD OCCUR AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW RACES EAST
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BRITISH
ISLES. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT
36-48 HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL
MODELS FOR THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 41.2N 48.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 42.8N 48.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 45.5N 47.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 02/0000Z 48.7N 45.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/1200Z 51.7N 43.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1200Z 56.0N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/1200Z 57.0N 19.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/1200Z 58.0N 3.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

On Sep 30, 3:24*pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
... not labelled as such, but the Low on the bottom/left of the ASXX
12Z he-

http://www.weather.org.uk/charts/UKCpf000.gif

is Tropical Storm 'Laura' see various guidance below ex-NHC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...46.shtml?tswin...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 301433
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER * 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL * AL122008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

WHILE SOMEWHAT OF A PARADOX...LAURA CAN NOW BE DESIGNATED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. *THE ONE ASPECT WHICH
WAS HOLDING US BACK FROM DECLARING IT TROPICAL WAS THE UPPER LOW
COLLOCATED WITH THE SYSTEM. *WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME OFFSET AND STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
LAURA...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. *IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTINUED TO CONTRACT TO ABOUT 60 NM.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD...BUT THAT IS QUITE
NORMAL FOR HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL CYCLONES DUE TO THE LOWER
TROPOPAUSE. *FRANKLY...LAURA NOW LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM.

THEREAFTER...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING AND AN EXPANSION OF
THE WIND FIELD COULD OCCUR AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW RACES EAST
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BRITISH
ISLES. *EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT
36-48 HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL
MODELS FOR THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL * * *30/1500Z 41.2N *48.8W * *50 KT
*12HR VT * * 01/0000Z 42.8N *48.4W * *50 KT
*24HR VT * * 01/1200Z 45.5N *47.4W * *45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
*36HR VT * * 02/0000Z 48.7N *45.6W * *40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
*48HR VT * * 02/1200Z 51.7N *43.6W * *40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
*72HR VT * * 03/1200Z 56.0N *35.0W * *45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
*96HR VT * * 04/1200Z 57.0N *19.0W * *50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT * * 05/1200Z 58.0N * 3.5W * *50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N * Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

Here's the end of the five day cone!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2...?5day#contents

Cheers, Alastair.

On Sep 30, 6:09*pm, Alastair wrote:
On Sep 30, 3:24*pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:

... not labelled as such, but the Low on the bottom/left of the ASXX
12Z he-

http://www.weather.org.uk/charts/UKCpf000.gif

is Tropical Storm 'Laura' see various guidance below ex-NHC

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...46.shtml?tswin...

000
Wtnt42 Knhc 301433
Tcdat2
Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 6
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122008
1100 Am Edt Tue Sep 30 2008

While Somewhat Of A Paradox...laura Can Now Be Designated As A
Tropical Cyclone Despite The Fact That It Continues To Move
Northward Over Progressively Colder Waters. The One Aspect Which
Was Holding Us Back From Declaring It Tropical Was The Upper Low
Collocated With The System. Water Vapor Imagery Indicates That
This Feature Has Become Offset And Stretched To The Southwest Of
Laura...and Upper Level Outflow Is Now Expanding To The North Of
The Cyclone. In Addition...scatterometer Data Indicate That The
Radius Of Maximum Winds Has Continued To Contract To About 60 Nm.
Cloud Top Temperatures Are Not All That Cold...but That Is Quite
Normal For High-latitude Tropical Cyclones Due To The Lower
Tropopause. Frankly...laura Now Looks Like A Tropical Storm.

Thereafter...some Re-strengthening And An Expansion Of
The Wind Field Could Occur As The Extratropical Low Races East
Within The Mid-latitude Westerlies Towards The Northern British
Isles. Except For A Slight Westward Shift In The Track Guidance At
36-48 Hours...there Has Been No Significant Change In The Global
Models For This Cycle And The Official Forecast Lies Very Close To
The Model Consensus.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 30/1500z 41.2n 48.8w 50 Kt
12hr Vt 01/0000z 42.8n 48.4w 50 Kt
24hr Vt 01/1200z 45.5n 47.4w 45 Kt...extratropical
36hr Vt 02/0000z 48.7n 45.6w 40 Kt...extratropical
48hr Vt 02/1200z 51.7n 43.6w 40 Kt...extratropical
72hr Vt 03/1200z 56.0n 35.0w 45 Kt...extratropical
96hr Vt 04/1200z 57.0n 19.0w 50 Kt...extratropical
120hr Vt 05/1200z 58.0n 3.5w 50 Kt...extratropical

http://www.spellcheck.net/

Here's the end of the five day cone!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2...?5day#contents

Still not a very deep low though is it?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...html?tswind120

Some context:
http://www.stormbanner.com/

On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:09:18 -0700 (PDT), Alastair
wrote:


Here's the end of the five day cone!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2...?5day#contents

Is it inevitable the Daily Express will see this?!
R

On Sep 30, 6:31*pm, Robin Nicholson
wrote:
On Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:09:18 -0700 (PDT), Alastair

wrote:
Here's the end of the five day cone!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2...?5day#contents

Is it inevitable the Daily Express will see this?!
R

Perhaps that why they have reduced it to a 4 day cone.

Or it may be that the US has not decided whether it is going to
release a financial hurricane on us yet.

Cheers, Alastair.