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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0456z, 24th October 2008 The middle of next week will see the UK in an unseasonably cold flow due to a high to the west. It's likely low pressure will move southwards over or close to the UK, bringing rain for most and snow over the higher regions of Scotland (and possibly the mountains of Wales). Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png A trough covers the UK, with SSW'lies in advance and westerlies following behind. SSW'lies cover the UK tomorrow, with high pressure over France. WSW'lies move over the UK on Sunday, as a trough moves eastwards. There are westerlies on Monday as the trough moves away to the east. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a highly meridonal pattern over the Atlantic, wiith a sharp trough over the North Sea and a large ridge over the central Atlantic. The jet heads southwards to the west of Ireland. At the 500hPa level there are NNW'lies, with a trough to the north and a ridge to the west. MetO has slack westerlies aloft, as do ECM and GEM. At the surface, GFS brings a weak ridge and light NW'lies for most, with stronger westerlies for Scotland due to a low to the north. MetO has a slack low over the UK and light winds for most, while ECM brings NNW'lies and a ridge to the WSW. GEm has a ridge and light winds for England and Wales with NW'lies elsewhere. Evolution to T+168 Day 6 with ECM shows a ridge over the UK, with low pressure to the NW. NE'lies cover England and Wales with SW'lies elsewhere. A weak ridge persists on day 7, with SE'lies for most. On day 6 with GFS low pressure covers SE England, with northerlies for most of the UK. NNE'lies affect the UK on day 7 as the low moves away to the east. Looking further afield On day 8 with ECM NNE'lies cover the UK, with high pressure to the ENE. Day 9 sees a ridge from the west with a mixture of northerlies, NW'lies and westerlies over the UK. On day 10 the winds become westerlies, with a high to the WSW. GFS brings a ridge on day 8, with NNW'lies for England and Wales and SW'lies elsewhere. Day 9 sees strong SW'lies for all with low pressure over Iceland and day 10 brings colder westerlies as a trough moves eastwards. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres) The ensembles show a cold spell for next week, with temperatures slowly recovering. |
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