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Old October 24th 08, 05:57 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (24/10/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0456z, 24th October 2008

The middle of next week will see the UK in an unseasonably cold flow due to
a high to the west. It's likely low pressure will move southwards over or
close to the UK, bringing rain for most and snow over the higher regions of
Scotland (and possibly the mountains of Wales).

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A trough covers the UK, with SSW'lies in advance and westerlies following
behind. SSW'lies cover the UK tomorrow, with high pressure over France.
WSW'lies move over the UK on Sunday, as a trough moves eastwards. There are
westerlies on Monday as the trough moves away to the east.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a highly meridonal pattern over the Atlantic,
wiith a sharp trough over the North Sea and a large ridge over the central
Atlantic. The jet heads southwards to the west of Ireland. At the 500hPa
level there are NNW'lies, with a trough to the north and a ridge to the
west. MetO has slack westerlies aloft, as do ECM and GEM.
At the surface, GFS brings a weak ridge and light NW'lies for most, with
stronger westerlies for Scotland due to a low to the north. MetO has a slack
low over the UK and light winds for most, while ECM brings NNW'lies and a
ridge to the WSW. GEm has a ridge and light winds for England and Wales with
NW'lies elsewhere.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM shows a ridge over the UK, with low pressure to the NW.
NE'lies cover England and Wales with SW'lies elsewhere. A weak ridge
persists on day 7, with SE'lies for most.
On day 6 with GFS low pressure covers SE England, with northerlies for most
of the UK. NNE'lies affect the UK on day 7 as the low moves away to the
east.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM NNE'lies cover the UK, with high pressure to the ENE. Day
9 sees a ridge from the west with a mixture of northerlies, NW'lies and
westerlies over the UK. On day 10 the winds become westerlies, with a high
to the WSW.
GFS brings a ridge on day 8, with NNW'lies for England and Wales and SW'lies
elsewhere. Day 9 sees strong SW'lies for all with low pressure over Iceland
and day 10 brings colder westerlies as a trough moves eastwards.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres)
The ensembles show a cold spell for next week, with temperatures slowly
recovering.



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