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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0514, 27th October 2008 The weekend will see a ridge over part of the UK, but it remains to be seen whether that's Scotland and NI (GFS) or the whole of the UK (ECM). If GFS is right, it'll be a cool and wet weekend for England and Wales, with frosts likely should skies clear. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png Westerlies cover the UK with a trough over the North Sea. Tomorrow the winds become NW'lies as pressure builds to the west. A mixture of NW'lies and NNW'lies covers the UK on Wednesday as a weak ridge moves southwards. The far NE of Scotland lies under WNW'ly gales from a nearby low. By THursday low pressure lies to the SW, with light NE'lies and northerlies over the UK. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a ridge to the west and a trough to the east, with the jet heading southwards over the UK. At the 500hPa level there are upper NE'lies, again with a ridge to the west. MetO also has upper NE'lies, while ECM has NNE'lies aloft. GEM is similar to GFS and ECM. At the surface, GFS brings a ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland, with NE'lies elsewhere. MetO is much the same as GFS, while ECM has NNE'lies and NE'lies across the UK. GEM brings a ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland, also with NE'lies for England and Wales. Evolution to T+168 Day 6 with ECM shows a ridge and light winds across the UK. Day 7 sees more of the same. On day 6 with GFS a ridge covers Scotland and Northern Ireland, with NE'lies elsewhere. There's little change on day 7, with low pressure to the south. Looking further afield On day 8 with ECM pressure builds to the NE, leading to NE'lies for England and Wales and SSW'lies elsewhere. A col covers much of the UK on day 9, followed by northerlies for many on day 10 from a trough over the North Sea. GFS brings low pressure over England and Wales on day 8, with a col elsewhere. Day 9 sees southerlies for all with a low to the west, followed by SW'lies on day 10. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres) The ensembles show a typical zonal "sine wave" pattern after this week. |
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