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Old October 27th 08, 05:16 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (27/10/08)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0514, 27th October 2008

The weekend will see a ridge over part of the UK, but it remains to be seen
whether that's Scotland and NI (GFS) or the whole of the UK (ECM). If GFS is
right, it'll be a cool and wet weekend for England and Wales, with frosts
likely should skies clear.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Westerlies cover the UK with a trough over the North Sea. Tomorrow the winds
become NW'lies as pressure builds to the west. A mixture of NW'lies and
NNW'lies covers the UK on Wednesday as a weak ridge moves southwards. The
far NE of Scotland lies under WNW'ly gales from a nearby low. By THursday
low pressure lies to the SW, with light NE'lies and northerlies over the UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a ridge to the west and a trough to the east, with
the jet heading southwards over the UK. At the 500hPa level there are upper
NE'lies, again with a ridge to the west. MetO also has upper NE'lies, while
ECM has NNE'lies aloft. GEM is similar to GFS and ECM.
At the surface, GFS brings a ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland, with
NE'lies elsewhere. MetO is much the same as GFS, while ECM has NNE'lies and
NE'lies across the UK. GEM brings a ridge over Scotland and Northern
Ireland, also with NE'lies for England and Wales.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM shows a ridge and light winds across the UK. Day 7 sees more
of the same.
On day 6 with GFS a ridge covers Scotland and Northern Ireland, with NE'lies
elsewhere. There's little change on day 7, with low pressure to the south.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM pressure builds to the NE, leading to NE'lies for England
and Wales and SSW'lies elsewhere. A col covers much of the UK on day 9,
followed by northerlies for many on day 10 from a trough over the North Sea.
GFS brings low pressure over England and Wales on day 8, with a col
elsewhere. Day 9 sees southerlies for all with a low to the west, followed
by SW'lies on day 10.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres)
The ensembles show a typical zonal "sine wave" pattern after this week.



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