This is the one due to start Thursday into Friday.

Retrogression and trough extension down 15W still expected to take place
with main plunge of deep cold air into the mid-Atlantic from Iceland. Models
varying on degree of cyclogenesis at left exit in base of trough near
Biscay. EC and GFS operational keen though UKMO much less so. Ensembles from
GFS also not that keen. This is a tricky one but my take is for less
development, with the base of the cold trough establishing bang over UK with
deep cold air just to west over Ireland feeding into western Britain and
then warming out a bit before reaching eastern parts. All in all we are in
for a messy time with potential for some slow moving bands of rain/sleet and
snow. Snow mainly hills in the south but low ground too in north. However,
I'm not ruling out entirely a deep low forming in Biscay bringing up milder
air into the SE for a while and also easterly gales and a lot of sleet/snow
in northern areas. A fascinating situation to watch develop. SST pattern
still favourable for maintaining the setup, indeed there looks to be a
positive feedback process unfolding.

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
This is the one due to start Thursday into Friday.

Retrogression and trough extension down 15W still expected to take place
with main plunge of deep cold air into the mid-Atlantic from Iceland.
Models varying on degree of cyclogenesis at left exit in base of trough
near Biscay. EC and GFS operational keen though UKMO much less so. Will
--

Thanks for the update, Will. I am you can continue to provide assessment as
your time permits.

The situation is generating a lot of discussion (and angst!) on certain
forums. It's an exciting time for weather and model watching! Looking
forward to seeing some decent hill-snow over Dublin/Wicklow area although
the thought of cold rain/sleet on the way to/from walk isn't something I'll
be overly excited about!

Joe

"Will Hand" wrote in
:

A fascinating situation to watch
develop. SST pattern still favourable for maintaining the setup,
indeed there looks to be a positive feedback process unfolding.

I hope you've invoked the Dixon Parameterization, Will: remember I'm not in
the country so all the hot air I spout won't be present...

Richard

A fascinating situation to watch develop. SST pattern
still favourable for maintaining the setup, indeed there looks to be a
positive feedback process unfolding.

Will

Thanks again for the input - the pattern is 'interesting' and in line
with my thoughts of a bias towards northerlies this Winter.

What is also interesting is that large sections of Scandinavia have sat
now for a while under a static cold low, leading to a large section
becoming snow covered - though also giving rise to temperatures further
east failing to get below freezing, until you meet the eastern siberian
high. The Arctic also seems to be largely undisturbed by SW penetration
at the moment, and there is another 'interesting' early tongue of ice
stretching from SE Greenland towards Iceland.

The USA has had a dome of cold over much of the central and eastern
portions much as a twin of the Scandinavian low, though snow cover has
not moved much further south than the great lakes ATM. All grist to our
mill...

Thanks Will, do update if you are able

James
--
James Brown

"jcw999" wrote in message
...
although
the thought of cold rain/sleet on the way to/from walk isn't something
I'll be overly excited about!

Joe

May I remind you it is for 'the Hound' - he gets ecstatic over sleety rain
and slush, and a cool 4C a feature of most of Britain actually.
Thats when he breakfasts out on the terrace in string vest.
Dave R