Well what a situation. All quite complex. As I have already said in another
thread an eastern block will just fail to develop with a bifurcating jet and
relaxing upper trough on Thursday into Friday. On Friday a warm front
attempts to come in against the cold air perhaps giving some sleet. However,
warmer air from Atlantic soon surges east and cloud and rain, preceeded by
some snow in northeast should come in later on Friday, but it could be
slower. It all gets very interesting on Saturday as deep cold air pushes in
behind a slow moving cold front with warm air rapidly occluding out.
Probably rain on low ground but needs watching and possibly wintry on back
edge, then on Sunday signs of even more slowing and a cut-off low forming as
upper trough digs down into Spain. Then we will have an awful
rain/sleet/snow mix. At least it won't be mild! After that I'm really not
sure, I don't believe GFS, OTOH it looks feasible with a temporary easterly
and vortex over France, though less cold before more zonality later. If I
had to make a choice I'd say we will end up with a low just to the north of
Scotland by mid-week and a rather cold westerly with rain and hill snow, but
confidence is very low. It also looks like the Siberian high may extend
across the Arctic, which would push Atlantic lows further south. I await the
12Z ECMWF and JMA with interest.

Ciao :-),

Will
--

STOP PRESS

DT 12Z ECMWF coming in and it has a 1000-500 thickness of 521 DAM over
northern England by midday Sunday and a slack pressure pattern. That's cold!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well what a situation. All quite complex. As I have already said in
another thread an eastern block will just fail to develop with a
bifurcating jet and relaxing upper trough on Thursday into Friday. On
Friday a warm front attempts to come in against the cold air perhaps
giving some sleet. However, warmer air from Atlantic soon surges east and
cloud and rain, preceeded by some snow in northeast should come in later
on Friday, but it could be slower. It all gets very interesting on
Saturday as deep cold air pushes in behind a slow moving cold front with
warm air rapidly occluding out. Probably rain on low ground but needs
watching and possibly wintry on back edge, then on Sunday signs of even
more slowing and a cut-off low forming as upper trough digs down into
Spain. Then we will have an awful rain/sleet/snow mix. At least it won't
be mild! After that I'm really not sure, I don't believe GFS, OTOH it
looks feasible with a temporary easterly and vortex over France, though
less cold before more zonality later. If I had to make a choice I'd say we
will end up with a low just to the north of Scotland by mid-week and a
rather cold westerly with rain and hill snow, but confidence is very low.
It also looks like the Siberian high may extend across the Arctic, which
would push Atlantic lows further south. I await the 12Z ECMWF and JMA with
interest.

Ciao :-),

Will
--

On Dec 10, 6:27*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
STOP PRESS

DT 12Z ECMWF coming in and it has a 1000-500 thickness of 521 DAM over
northern England by midday Sunday and a slack pressure pattern. That's cold!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message

...



Well what a situation. All quite complex. As I have already said in
another thread an eastern block will just fail to develop with a
bifurcating jet and relaxing upper trough on Thursday into Friday. On
Friday a warm front attempts to come in against the cold air perhaps
giving some sleet. However, warmer air from Atlantic soon surges east and
cloud and rain, preceeded by some snow in northeast should come in later
on Friday, but it could be slower. It all gets very interesting on
Saturday as deep cold air pushes in behind a slow moving cold front with
warm air rapidly occluding out. Probably rain on low ground but needs
watching and possibly wintry on back edge, then on Sunday signs of even
more slowing and a cut-off low forming as upper trough digs down into
Spain. Then we will have an awful rain/sleet/snow mix. At least it won't
be mild! After that I'm really not sure, I don't believe GFS, OTOH it
looks feasible with a temporary easterly and vortex over France, though
less cold before more zonality later. If I had to make a choice I'd say we
will end up with a low just to the north of Scotland by mid-week and a
rather cold westerly with rain and hill snow, but confidence is very low.
It also looks like the Siberian high may extend across the Arctic, which
would push Atlantic lows further south. I await the 12Z ECMWF and JMA with
interest.

Ciao :-),

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Actually Will I was planning to ping you about this. The GFS did show
a dundamental change from it earlier stances and now the ECM has
shuffled it feet as well and to my untrained eye all into a less than
previously predicted cold weasterly.

Trying to take in all that youv'e said it seems to be that you think
changes are afoot and the westerly scenario could possibly run out a
seam; does the high to our NEE start to exert an innfluence? If I
sound naive please be kind for old times sake.

On Dec 10, 7:12*pm, wrote:
On Dec 10, 6:27*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





STOP PRESS

DT 12Z ECMWF coming in and it has a 1000-500 thickness of 521 DAM over
northern England by midday Sunday and a slack pressure pattern. That's cold!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message

...

Well what a situation. All quite complex. As I have already said in
another thread an eastern block will just fail to develop with a
bifurcating jet and relaxing upper trough on Thursday into Friday. On
Friday a warm front attempts to come in against the cold air perhaps
giving some sleet. However, warmer air from Atlantic soon surges east and
cloud and rain, preceeded by some snow in northeast should come in later
on Friday, but it could be slower. It all gets very interesting on
Saturday as deep cold air pushes in behind a slow moving cold front with
warm air rapidly occluding out. Probably rain on low ground but needs
watching and possibly wintry on back edge, then on Sunday signs of even
more slowing and a cut-off low forming as upper trough digs down into
Spain. Then we will have an awful rain/sleet/snow mix. At least it won't
be mild! After that I'm really not sure, I don't believe GFS, OTOH it
looks feasible with a temporary easterly and vortex over France, though
less cold before more zonality later. If I had to make a choice I'd say we
will end up with a low just to the north of Scotland by mid-week and a
rather cold westerly with rain and hill snow, but confidence is very low.
It also looks like the Siberian high may extend across the Arctic, which
would push Atlantic lows further south. I await the 12Z ECMWF and JMA with
interest.

Ciao :-),

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Actually Will *I was planning to ping you about this. The GFS did show
a dundamental change from it earlier stances *and now the ECM has
shuffled it feet as well and to my untrained eye all into a less than
previously predicted cold weasterly.

Trying to take in all that youv'e said it seems to be that you think
changes are afoot and the westerly scenario could possibly run out a
seam; does the high to our NEE start to exert an innfluence? *If I
sound naive please be kind for old times sake.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Doh . "dundamental", "seam" . Oh dear the key symbols are wearing very
thin on me tireless twee board.

On Wed, 10 Dec 2008, wrote
On Dec 10, 7:12*pm, wrote:
On Dec 10, 6:27*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





STOP PRESS

DT 12Z ECMWF coming in and it has a 1000-500 thickness of 521 DAM over
northern England by midday Sunday and a slack pressure pattern.
That's cold!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message

...

Well what a situation. All quite complex. As I have already said in
another thread an eastern block will just fail to develop with a
bifurcating jet and relaxing upper trough on Thursday into Friday. On
Friday a warm front attempts to come in against the cold air perhaps
giving some sleet. However, warmer air from Atlantic soon surges east and
cloud and rain, preceeded by some snow in northeast should come in later
on Friday, but it could be slower. It all gets very interesting on
Saturday as deep cold air pushes in behind a slow moving cold front with
warm air rapidly occluding out. Probably rain on low ground but needs
watching and possibly wintry on back edge, then on Sunday signs of even
more slowing and a cut-off low forming as upper trough digs down into
Spain. Then we will have an awful rain/sleet/snow mix. At least it won't
be mild! After that I'm really not sure, I don't believe GFS, OTOH it
looks feasible with a temporary easterly and vortex over France, though
less cold before more zonality later. If I had to make a choice
say we
will end up with a low just to the north of Scotland by mid-week and a
rather cold westerly with rain and hill snow, but confidence is very low.
It also looks like the Siberian high may extend across the Arctic, which
would push Atlantic lows further south. I await the 12Z ECMWF and
JMA with
interest.

Ciao :-),

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Actually Will *I was planning to ping you about this. The GFS did show
a dundamental change from it earlier stances *and now the ECM has
shuffled it feet as well and to my untrained eye all into a less than
previously predicted cold weasterly.

Trying to take in all that youv'e said it seems to be that you think
changes are afoot and the westerly scenario could possibly run out a
seam; does the high to our NEE start to exert an innfluence? *If I
sound naive please be kind for old times sake.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Doh . "dundamental", "seam" . Oh dear the key symbols are wearing very
thin on me tireless twee board.

Actually, I really liked 'weasterly' best. I've been blown about by
winds like that.

--
Kate B

PS 'elvira' is spamtrapped - please reply to 'elviraspam' at cockaigne dot org dot uk if you
want to reply personally

wrote in message
...
On Dec 10, 6:27 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
STOP PRESS

DT 12Z ECMWF coming in and it has a 1000-500 thickness of 521 DAM over
northern England by midday Sunday and a slack pressure pattern. That's
cold!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message

...



Well what a situation. All quite complex. As I have already said in
another thread an eastern block will just fail to develop with a
bifurcating jet and relaxing upper trough on Thursday into Friday. On
Friday a warm front attempts to come in against the cold air perhaps
giving some sleet. However, warmer air from Atlantic soon surges east
and
cloud and rain, preceeded by some snow in northeast should come in later
on Friday, but it could be slower. It all gets very interesting on
Saturday as deep cold air pushes in behind a slow moving cold front with
warm air rapidly occluding out. Probably rain on low ground but needs
watching and possibly wintry on back edge, then on Sunday signs of even
more slowing and a cut-off low forming as upper trough digs down into
Spain. Then we will have an awful rain/sleet/snow mix. At least it won't
be mild! After that I'm really not sure, I don't believe GFS, OTOH it
looks feasible with a temporary easterly and vortex over France, though
less cold before more zonality later. If I had to make a choice I'd say
we
will end up with a low just to the north of Scotland by mid-week and a
rather cold westerly with rain and hill snow, but confidence is very
low.
It also looks like the Siberian high may extend across the Arctic, which
would push Atlantic lows further south. I await the 12Z ECMWF and JMA
with
interest.

Ciao :-),

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Actually Will I was planning to ping you about this. The GFS did show
a dundamental change from it earlier stances and now the ECM has
shuffled it feet as well and to my untrained eye all into a less than
previously predicted cold weasterly.

Trying to take in all that youv'e said it seems to be that you think
changes are afoot and the westerly scenario could possibly run out a
seam; does the high to our NEE start to exert an innfluence? If I
sound naive please be kind for old times sake.
=====

Hi Lawrence, yes the rather cold westerly blast with lows running into UK
seems to have backed off now, though not completely ruled out. Tendency now
for a low complex to establish over Britain with a building Siberian high.
The only confidence I have is that it won't be mild.

Will
--

On Dec 10, 7:23*pm, Kate Brown wrote:
On Wed, 10 Dec 2008, *wrote





On Dec 10, 7:12*pm, wrote:
On Dec 10, 6:27*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

STOP PRESS

DT 12Z ECMWF coming in and it has a 1000-500 thickness of 521 DAM over
northern England by midday Sunday and a slack pressure pattern.
That's cold!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message

...

Well what a situation. All quite complex. As I have already said in
another thread an eastern block will just fail to develop with a
bifurcating jet and relaxing upper trough on Thursday into Friday. On
Friday a warm front attempts to come in against the cold air perhaps
giving some sleet. However, warmer air from Atlantic soon surges east and
cloud and rain, preceeded by some snow in northeast should come in later
on Friday, but it could be slower. It all gets very interesting on
Saturday as deep cold air pushes in behind a slow moving cold front with
warm air rapidly occluding out. Probably rain on low ground but needs
watching and possibly wintry on back edge, then on Sunday signs of even
more slowing and a cut-off low forming as upper trough digs down into
Spain. Then we will have an awful rain/sleet/snow mix. At least it won't
be mild! After that I'm really not sure, I don't believe GFS, OTOH it
looks feasible with a temporary easterly and vortex over France, though
less cold before more zonality later. If I had to make a choice
say we
will end up with a low just to the north of Scotland by mid-week and a
rather cold westerly with rain and hill snow, but confidence is very low.
It also looks like the Siberian high may extend across the Arctic, which
would push Atlantic lows further south. I await the 12Z ECMWF and
JMA with
interest.

Ciao :-),

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Actually Will *I was planning to ping you about this. The GFS did show
a dundamental change from it earlier stances *and now the ECM has
shuffled it feet as well and to my untrained eye all into a less than
previously predicted cold weasterly.

Trying to take in all that youv'e said it seems to be that you think
changes are afoot and the westerly scenario could possibly run out a
seam; does the high to our NEE start to exert an innfluence? *If I
sound naive please be kind for old times sake.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Doh . "dundamental", "seam" . Oh dear the key symbols are wearing very
thin on me tireless twee board.

Actually, I really liked 'weasterly' best. *I've been blown about by
winds like that.

--
Kate B

PS 'elvira' is spamtrapped - please reply to 'elviraspam' at cockaigne dot org dot uk if you
want to reply personally- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Blimey that as well Kate: actually I was giving Will a choice between
the easterly and the westerly the outcome was weasterly. Believe that
Kate and I'll be telling you next Father Christmas isn't real.

Will, I admire you for sticking your neck out, as you seem to sense
somethings different this year that I can't see. The only thing to note
this year is the warmth to the east up to now, which in previous years
seemed to get cold early, one would have thought this year would be even
warmer. I guess time will tell?

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net


Will Hand wrote:
STOP PRESS

DT 12Z ECMWF coming in and it has a 1000-500 thickness of 521 DAM over
northern England by midday Sunday and a slack pressure pattern. That's cold!

Will
--

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net