"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
cut Bitterly cold northerly with snow showers in eastern areas
otherwise sunny - 5%
Mild southwesterlies, cloudy and dry, with drizzle in Scotland - 10%
Anticyclonic with persistent fog and frost - 40%
Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, chilly with sunshine and early
frost - 40%
Bitterly cold or east north-easterlies with snow flurries in
southeast - 5%

Ciao, :-)

Thanks Will for the daily updates.

Everything to play for at the moment..bit like an Meteorologists Advent
calendar opening a different box every day - EC tonight is Easterlies!

Merry Xmas to you and yours.

Phil

Cheers Phil, I love your image of an advent calendar.

Yes indeed EC T+240 (fantasy island) shows full blown retrogression after
Boxing Day with a bitterly cold Arctic northerly poised to sweep south
over Britain. It won't be right at that range of course but nicely
illustrates the possibilities once the upper flow gets distorted into
meridionality, which it will over the weekend.

Will
--



That would be nice ;-) What is different this year, is GFS, which
normally goes for the "Day After Tomorrow" scenario, looks the least
exciting. It's a shame UKMO don't venture into the T+240 land, it would be
nice to compare. As always, this next two weeks often determines the
pattern for January and into February, but I still don't hold out much
hope for anything out the ordinary.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net
------------------------
You wouldn't say that Keith if you looked at today's (17th) GFS 12z
evolution at T+192 ;-) . Load of rubbish of course - or is it??!! ;-))
It's getting like TWO on here with all this "Fantasy Island" and "all to
play for" stuff !

Dave

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
cut Bitterly cold northerly with snow showers in eastern areas
otherwise sunny - 5%
Mild southwesterlies, cloudy and dry, with drizzle in Scotland - 10%
Anticyclonic with persistent fog and frost - 40%
Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, chilly with sunshine and early
frost - 40%
Bitterly cold or east north-easterlies with snow flurries in
southeast - 5%

Ciao, :-)

Thanks Will for the daily updates.

Everything to play for at the moment..bit like an Meteorologists Advent
calendar opening a different box every day - EC tonight is Easterlies!

Merry Xmas to you and yours.

Phil

Cheers Phil, I love your image of an advent calendar.

Yes indeed EC T+240 (fantasy island) shows full blown retrogression
after Boxing Day with a bitterly cold Arctic northerly poised to sweep
south over Britain. It won't be right at that range of course but nicely
illustrates the possibilities once the upper flow gets distorted into
meridionality, which it will over the weekend.

Will
--



That would be nice ;-) What is different this year, is GFS, which
normally goes for the "Day After Tomorrow" scenario, looks the least
exciting. It's a shame UKMO don't venture into the T+240 land, it would
be nice to compare. As always, this next two weeks often determines the
pattern for January and into February, but I still don't hold out much
hope for anything out the ordinary.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net
------------------------
You wouldn't say that Keith if you looked at today's (17th) GFS 12z
evolution at T+192 ;-) . Load of rubbish of course - or is it??!! ;-))
It's getting like TWO on here with all this "Fantasy Island" and "all to
play for" stuff !

Dave


Well I think somethings up :-)
Seriously, I'll update later this evening once all the runs/ensembles are in
and my brain gets back in gear after a hard workout at the office today.

It's all getting *very* interesting.

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in
message ...

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
cut Bitterly cold northerly with snow showers in eastern areas
otherwise sunny - 5%
Mild southwesterlies, cloudy and dry, with drizzle in Scotland - 10%
Anticyclonic with persistent fog and frost - 40%
Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, chilly with sunshine and early
frost - 40%
Bitterly cold or east north-easterlies with snow flurries in
southeast - 5%

Ciao, :-)

Thanks Will for the daily updates.

Everything to play for at the moment..bit like an Meteorologists
Advent calendar opening a different box every day - EC tonight is
Easterlies!

Merry Xmas to you and yours.

Phil

Cheers Phil, I love your image of an advent calendar.

Yes indeed EC T+240 (fantasy island) shows full blown retrogression
after Boxing Day with a bitterly cold Arctic northerly poised to sweep
south over Britain. It won't be right at that range of course but
nicely illustrates the possibilities once the upper flow gets distorted
into meridionality, which it will over the weekend.

Will
--



That would be nice ;-) What is different this year, is GFS, which
normally goes for the "Day After Tomorrow" scenario, looks the least
exciting. It's a shame UKMO don't venture into the T+240 land, it would
be nice to compare. As always, this next two weeks often determines the
pattern for January and into February, but I still don't hold out much
hope for anything out the ordinary.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net
------------------------
You wouldn't say that Keith if you looked at today's (17th) GFS 12z
evolution at T+192 ;-) . Load of rubbish of course - or is it??!! ;-))
It's getting like TWO on here with all this "Fantasy Island" and "all to
play for" stuff !

Dave


Well I think somethings up :-)
Seriously, I'll update later this evening once all the runs/ensembles are
in and my brain gets back in gear after a hard workout at the office
today.

It's all getting *very* interesting.

Will
--------------------
... and like the cliche ridden England cricket team *just take the positives*
out of this.
Dave

DT12Z 17th runs are very consistent. The low running towards Greenland now
looks like passing to the east of it ensuring high development over the UK
and indeed with centres just to the east. Cold northerly plunge taking place
still into eastern Europe. Exact location of high cell on Christmas Day
still uncertain but now much more likely to be east of UK than to west, it
is now a matter of whether it subsequently pushes north or not.
Interestingly after Christmas both EC and GFS hint at retrogression and the
possibility of a very cold east or northeasterly with snow showers in
eastern areas. So here are my revised probabilities for Christmas Day:

Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, becoming colder during the day, but dry
with some sunshine - 60%
Anticyclone over right UK with fog and frost - 30%
Anticyclonic easterly with stronger winds in south with wintry showers into
SE - 10%

The really interesting stuff will be on Boxing Day and beyond, more on that
as it becomes clearer.
The DT12Z GFS is a cold outlier but now supported by other ensemble members
and the ensemble mean temperature trend is firmly downwards. Also supported
by ECMWF. But let's not get carried away :-)

Cheers,

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Trends are becoming clearer and more consistent today, at least up to day
before Christmas Eve.
During the weekend a deepening low moving northwards from Newfoundland
towards Greenland will finally distort the upper flow and amplify the
developing high just to the west of the meridian over the UK. The
behaviour of this low will be key for this amplification. Meanwhile
another depression scoots across the north Atlantic rounding the UK ridge
and dives into Scandinavia on Monday plunging very deep cold air
southwards into eastern Europe and Russia. By Tuesday we should have an
anticyclone somewhere over UK, but where will the centre be? The low which
ran up to Greenland will continue to be key to this and how it interacts
with the Greenland plateau, models never handle these things well. If it
tends to the west of Greenland then we will have retrogression during
Christmas week, ending up with a bitter northerly. If it tends to east
then high will stay over UK and possibly sink a little southeastwards -
more normal. GFS on one run took lows right across Greenland which is
dynamically unrealistic, so I do not trust GFS as much in this sequence.
So there you have it, high pressure now looking very likely but where will
the centre of gravity be? This will be key to the weather and
temperatures. Any sort of easterly after the deep cold plunge on Monday
will be very cold indeed, south or southeasterlies will be milder of
course and a high right over us will give us problems with fog. So here
are my probabilities in which I still have low confidence in for Christmas
Day. They will change as the situation becomes clearer, ECMWF, for
example, is trending colder with each run with 528DAM now over Denmark in
a north-easterly DT12Z today (16th).

Bitterly cold northerly with snow showers in eastern areas otherwise
sunny - 5%
Mild southwesterlies, cloudy and dry, with drizzle in Scotland - 10%
Anticyclonic with persistent fog and frost - 40%
Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, chilly with sunshine and early frost -
40%
Bitterly cold or east north-easterlies with snow flurries in southeast -
5%

Ciao, :-)

Will
--

Will Hand wrote:


The really interesting stuff will be on Boxing Day and beyond, more on that
as it becomes clearer.
The DT12Z GFS is a cold outlier but now supported by other ensemble members
and the ensemble mean temperature trend is firmly downwards. Also supported
by ECMWF. But let's not get carried away :-)

Cheers,

Will
--

It is certainly looking a lot more interesting now Will, I'm clinging to
every word of your threads trying to squeeze the last drop out of it ;-)

Seriously though, what is the underlining cause of the models getting
nervous in this way? Jet stream, SST anomalies?


I was also thinking why the hell I want snow, and I guess it's a case of
actually recording one of those memorable winters now I have all the
equipment, yes I have some records of 1963, but these are not mine as I
was just 3 years old then. Gosh, what am I saying, another pink elephant
flies by ...

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Anticyclone over right UK with fog and frost - 30%

Any chance of some snow grains in there, Will ? ;-)

Jon.

On 17 Dec, 19:18, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:

--------------------
.. and like the cliche ridden England cricket team *just take the positives*
out of this.

Hopefully we won't have too much positive spin this christmas though -
maybe more negative spin, centred over Scandinavia.

I'll get me coat.

Richard

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Anticyclone over right UK with fog and frost - 30%

Any chance of some snow grains in there, Will ? ;-)

Jon.
------------------------
Grains of truth would be nice ;-)
Dave

Hmmm, i dislike the phrase

"it's all to play for"

I think it's the most overused phrase on weather message boards
It doesn't really say anything.

Our language is full of useless phrases.

It's never just a nice day... it's:

Basically, a nice day

In the fullness of time, basically, at the end of the day, we may just
arrive at the conclusion that today we spent fifty percent of our
time, padding out our sentences with meaningless phrases. I'll touch
base with you later, and see if you agree

"BlueLightning" wrote in message
...
Hmmm, i dislike the phrase

"it's all to play for"

I think it's the most overused phrase on weather message boards
It doesn't really say anything.

Our language is full of useless phrases.

It's never just a nice day... it's:

Basically, a nice day

In the fullness of time, basically, at the end of the day, we may just
arrive at the conclusion that today we spent fifty percent of our
time, padding out our sentences with meaningless phrases. I'll touch
base with you later, and see if you agree
------
Exactly, a whole raft of cliches there.
Dave (Just to rid myself of two more annoyances)