Keith (Southend) wrote:

Seriously though, what is the underlining cause of the models getting
nervous in this way? Jet stream, SST anomalies?

As I suggested a while ago, the SST situation off the Grand Banks is that
the warm pool has moved a little north and that should move a mid-Atlantic
high-pressure anomaly towards Iceland and give us more northerlies than
usual. However, the anomaly may be too far south to give a prolonged cold
spell.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy

On 18 Dec, 03:39, BlueLightning wrote:

In the fullness of time, basically, at the end of the day, we may just
arrive at the conclusion that today we spent fifty percent of our
time, padding out our sentences with meaningless phrases. I'll touch
base with you later, and see if you agree

You missed "at this moment in time"

Richard

Day. They will change as the situation becomes clearer, ECMWF, for
example, is trending colder with each run with 528DAM now over Denmark in
a north-easterly DT12Z today (16th).

Bitterly cold northerly with snow showers in eastern areas otherwise
sunny - 5%
Mild southwesterlies, cloudy and dry, with drizzle in Scotland - 10%
Anticyclonic with persistent fog and frost - 40%
Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, chilly with sunshine and early
frost - 40%
Bitterly cold or east north-easterlies with snow flurries in southeast -
5%

Ciao, :-)

Will
------------------------
Bearing in mind the last 20 or so winters and the consistent "toppling
highs" I would have thrown at least a 20% HP to the west or NW with cool
NWesterlies :-(

Dave
--

No real surprises today.
Still anticyclonic and turning colder.
Ensembles reflect variability nicely.
Here are my revised probabilities for Christmas Day from subtle trends:

Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, becoming colder during the day, but dry
with some sunshine, although a raw wind along south coast - 70%
Anticyclone centred right over UK with fog and frost - 20%
Strong cold easterly in south with drizzle, snow grains or light snow,
otherwise dry and cold - 10%

Will
--


"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
DT12Z 17th runs are very consistent. The low running towards Greenland now
looks like passing to the east of it ensuring high development over the UK
and indeed with centres just to the east. Cold northerly plunge taking
place still into eastern Europe. Exact location of high cell on Christmas
Day still uncertain but now much more likely to be east of UK than to
west, it is now a matter of whether it subsequently pushes north or not.
Interestingly after Christmas both EC and GFS hint at retrogression and
the possibility of a very cold east or northeasterly with snow showers in
eastern areas. So here are my revised probabilities for Christmas Day:

Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, becoming colder during the day, but
dry with some sunshine - 60%
Anticyclone over right UK with fog and frost - 30%
Anticyclonic easterly with stronger winds in south with wintry showers
into SE - 10%

The really interesting stuff will be on Boxing Day and beyond, more on
that as it becomes clearer.
The DT12Z GFS is a cold outlier but now supported by other ensemble
members and the ensemble mean temperature trend is firmly downwards. Also
supported by ECMWF. But let's not get carried away :-)

Cheers,

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Trends are becoming clearer and more consistent today, at least up to day
before Christmas Eve.
During the weekend a deepening low moving northwards from Newfoundland
towards Greenland will finally distort the upper flow and amplify the
developing high just to the west of the meridian over the UK. The
behaviour of this low will be key for this amplification. Meanwhile
another depression scoots across the north Atlantic rounding the UK ridge
and dives into Scandinavia on Monday plunging very deep cold air
southwards into eastern Europe and Russia. By Tuesday we should have an
anticyclone somewhere over UK, but where will the centre be? The low
which ran up to Greenland will continue to be key to this and how it
interacts with the Greenland plateau, models never handle these things
well. If it tends to the west of Greenland then we will have
retrogression during Christmas week, ending up with a bitter northerly.
If it tends to east then high will stay over UK and possibly sink a
little southeastwards - more normal. GFS on one run took lows right
across Greenland which is dynamically unrealistic, so I do not trust GFS
as much in this sequence. So there you have it, high pressure now looking
very likely but where will the centre of gravity be? This will be key to
the weather and temperatures. Any sort of easterly after the deep cold
plunge on Monday will be very cold indeed, south or southeasterlies will
be milder of course and a high right over us will give us problems with
fog. So here are my probabilities in which I still have low confidence in
for Christmas Day. They will change as the situation becomes clearer,
ECMWF, for example, is trending colder with each run with 528DAM now over
Denmark in a north-easterly DT12Z today (16th).

Bitterly cold northerly with snow showers in eastern areas otherwise
sunny - 5%
Mild southwesterlies, cloudy and dry, with drizzle in Scotland - 10%
Anticyclonic with persistent fog and frost - 40%
Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, chilly with sunshine and early
frost - 40%
Bitterly cold or east north-easterlies with snow flurries in southeast -
5%

Ciao, :-)

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
No real surprises today.
Still anticyclonic and turning colder.
Ensembles reflect variability nicely.
Here are my revised probabilities for Christmas Day from subtle trends:

Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, becoming colder during the day, but
dry
with some sunshine, although a raw wind along south coast - 70%
Anticyclone centred right over UK with fog and frost - 20%
Strong cold easterly in south with drizzle, snow grains or light snow,
otherwise dry and cold - 10%

Will
--

At the moment my rose tinted glasses aren't quite strong enough to be that
hopeful. 12z GFS mean 850 hPa's are down 3deg on yesterday and most of the
ensemble members (Boxing Day) are tightly clustered around or just above the
mean, which is in fact dragged lower by approx 4 much more scattered lower
runs. Nevertheless it shouldn't be that horrible mild damp Christmas stuff
and it's still way to far away to be sure, as your probabilities indicate.
Dave

In message , Will Hand
writes
No real surprises today.
Still anticyclonic and turning colder.
Ensembles reflect variability nicely.
Here are my revised probabilities for Christmas Day from subtle trends:

Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, becoming colder during the day, but dry
with some sunshine, although a raw wind along south coast - 70%
Anticyclone centred right over UK with fog and frost - 20%
Strong cold easterly in south with drizzle, snow grains or light snow,
otherwise dry and cold - 10%

Will

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...erministic/msl
_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!Europe!pop !od!oper!public_plots!2
008121812!!/

Looks 'interesting for the south

James
--
James Brown

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
No real surprises today.
Still anticyclonic and turning colder.
Ensembles reflect variability nicely.
Here are my revised probabilities for Christmas Day from subtle trends:

Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, becoming colder during the day, but
dry
with some sunshine, although a raw wind along south coast - 70%
Anticyclone centred right over UK with fog and frost - 20%
Strong cold easterly in south with drizzle, snow grains or light snow,
otherwise dry and cold - 10%

Will
--

At the moment my rose tinted glasses aren't quite strong enough to be that
hopeful. 12z GFS mean 850 hPa's are down 3deg on yesterday and most of
the ensemble members (Boxing Day) are tightly clustered around or just
above the mean, which is in fact dragged lower by approx 4 much more
scattered lower runs. Nevertheless it shouldn't be that horrible mild damp
Christmas stuff and it's still way to far away to be sure, as your
probabilities indicate.
Dave



Dave, 850 hPa temperatures are not really indicative of surface temps. in
this situation of high pressure and a likely steep inversion. Also cold
easterlies tend to undercut like a wedge. I was also careful to say a cold
easterly rather than a "very cold" easterly. I put a lot of thought into
this you know!

Cheers,

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in
message ...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
No real surprises today.
Still anticyclonic and turning colder.
Ensembles reflect variability nicely.
Here are my revised probabilities for Christmas Day from subtle trends:

Anticyclonic east or southeasterly, becoming colder during the day, but
dry
with some sunshine, although a raw wind along south coast - 70%
Anticyclone centred right over UK with fog and frost - 20%
Strong cold easterly in south with drizzle, snow grains or light snow,
otherwise dry and cold - 10%

Will
--

At the moment my rose tinted glasses aren't quite strong enough to be
that hopeful. 12z GFS mean 850 hPa's are down 3deg on yesterday and most
of the ensemble members (Boxing Day) are tightly clustered around or just
above the mean, which is in fact dragged lower by approx 4 much more
scattered lower runs. Nevertheless it shouldn't be that horrible mild
damp Christmas stuff and it's still way to far away to be sure, as your
probabilities indicate.
Dave



Dave, 850 hPa temperatures are not really indicative of surface temps. in
this situation of high pressure and a likely steep inversion. Also cold
easterlies tend to undercut like a wedge. I was also careful to say a cold
easterly rather than a "very cold" easterly. I put a lot of thought into
this you know!

Cheers,

Will
----------------
Yes , I realise all that Will. Just noting the differences to the previous
day and being my usual pessimistic self ;-)
Dave

On Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:27:09 -0000, "Will Hand"
wrote:

No real surprises today.
Still anticyclonic and turning colder.

Oh dear! The thought of what I call nondescript weather for x days,
with not too much happening aloft, is somewhat depressing.

R