In message
,
Richard Dixon writes
On 20 Dec, 10:37, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

Must admit, nothing about any of the models looks that severe to me, raw
yes, but more likely drizzle here in Southend-on-Sea, there doesn't seem
to be any deep cold push coming round the back and that northerly second
hit seems to have gone now :-(

Agree that the source of the easterly isn't cold which will dampen
spirits for those wanting snow but the agreement between the models is
heartening for an easterly...

http://meteocentre.com/models/compar...ang=fr&run=00&
type=z&hour=192&range=glb

Richard

I'm not sure I agree with your use of 'isn't cold' - a quick check on:
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak...cisoTTPPWW.gif

shows some pretty cold air already in place albeit slightly further
east, but with a preceding northerly for western europe and normal
cooling at this time of the year - I think I would go with Will on this
one ;-)

James

--
James Brown

On 20 Dec, 11:28, James Brown
wrote:
In message
,
Richard Dixon writes





On 20 Dec, 10:37, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

Must admit, nothing about any of the models looks that severe to me, raw
yes, but more likely drizzle here in Southend-on-Sea, there doesn't seem
to be any deep cold push coming round the back and that northerly second
hit seems to have gone now :-(

Agree that the source of the easterly isn't cold which will dampen
spirits for those wanting snow but the agreement between the models is
heartening for an easterly...

http://meteocentre.com/models/compar...ang=fr&run=00&
type=z&hour=192&range=glb

Richard

I'm not sure I agree with your use of 'isn't cold' - a quick check on:http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak...s/arcisoTTPPWW...

shows some pretty cold air already in place albeit slightly further
east, but with a preceding northerly for western europe and normal
cooling at this time of the year - I think I would go with Will on this
one ;-)

James

--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Doesn't look particularly cold to the east on this Boxing Day
prediction www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1505.png

Mind you, those nice yellow double figure maxes are now to the west of
Land's End. Might get my 1st air frost before the end of the year, or
then again there may be too much of a rather unpleasant ESE.

Graham
Penzance - currently bright, dry, Force 3 W, 12.7C

Doesn't look particularly cold to the east on this Boxing Day
prediction www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1505.png

Mind you, those nice yellow double figure maxes are now to the west of
Land's End. Might get my 1st air frost before the end of the year, or
then again there may be too much of a rather unpleasant ESE.

Graham
Penzance - currently bright, dry, Force 3 W, 12.7C

The latest GFS now turns it into a few days of cooler easterlies before
mild southerlies return :-((

James

--
James Brown

"James Brown" wrote in message
...
Doesn't look particularly cold to the east on this Boxing Day
prediction www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1505.png

Mind you, those nice yellow double figure maxes are now to the west of
Land's End. Might get my 1st air frost before the end of the year, or
then again there may be too much of a rather unpleasant ESE.

Graham
Penzance - currently bright, dry, Force 3 W, 12.7C

The latest GFS now turns it into a few days of cooler easterlies before
mild southerlies return :-((

James

I would give little weight to the operational output beyond about T+144;
more so from T+180 when the resolutions steps down.

Jon.

"James Brown" wrote in message
...
Doesn't look particularly cold to the east on this Boxing Day
prediction www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1505.png

Mind you, those nice yellow double figure maxes are now to the west of
Land's End. Might get my 1st air frost before the end of the year, or
then again there may be too much of a rather unpleasant ESE.

Graham
Penzance - currently bright, dry, Force 3 W, 12.7C

The latest GFS now turns it into a few days of cooler easterlies before
mild southerlies return :-((

James

I would give little weight to the operational output beyond about T+144;
more so from T+180 when the resolution steps down.

Jon.

In message , Jon O'Rourke
writes
"James Brown" wrote in message
...
Doesn't look particularly cold to the east on this Boxing Day
prediction www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1505.png

Mind you, those nice yellow double figure maxes are now to the west of
Land's End. Might get my 1st air frost before the end of the year, or
then again there may be too much of a rather unpleasant ESE.

Graham
Penzance - currently bright, dry, Force 3 W, 12.7C

The latest GFS now turns it into a few days of cooler easterlies before
mild southerlies return :-((

James

I would give little weight to the operational output beyond about T+144;
more so from T+180 when the resolution steps down.

Jon.

breathes sigh of relief - wondering why the ECMWF hasn't been updated on
their site from the 00Z

thanks Jon




--
James Brown

"James Brown" wrote in message
...

breathes sigh of relief - wondering why the ECMWF hasn't been updated on
their site from the 00Z

The 12Z run usually gets in around 1900-2000Z-ish on EC's site but it can
often be seen on Wetterzentrale a little earlier.

As an aside the winter forecast update is due Monday morning
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/.../winter2008_9/

Jon.

It's there now

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif

wrote in message
...
It's there now

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif

I think I can hear the distant sound of wood chopping ;-)

Jon.

In message , Jon O'Rourke
writes
wrote in message
...
It's there now

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif

I think I can hear the distant sound of wood chopping ;-)

Jon.


And the hammering of nails, the greasing of runners....

James

--
James Brown