**Merry Christmas to all readers!**

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Monday.
Issued 0515, Christmas Day 2008

The middle of next week will see a battle over the east Atlantic, as low
pressure tries to move in from the SW, destabilising our current high.
Current indications are that although the high will be displaced, winds from
an easterly quarter will persist over the UK bringing rather cold
conditions. There's a good chance, however, that it'll turn milder for a day
or two as less cold air is advected from the SE.

By the start of the New Year, the ECM and GFS show high pressure to the
north influencing the UK, backing the winds easterly or NE'ly. ECM shows the
cold air (barely) missing us to the east, while GFS brings an icy couple of
days as a cold plume moves across the UK. Either way, a return to Atlantic
conditions is not on the menu for the forseeable future.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
High pressure covers southern Scandinavia, with a ridge SW'wards to the UK.
NE'lies affect England and Wales with southerlies elsewhere. The high builds
over southern Sweden tomorrow, with ENE'lies for England and Wales and
SE'lies elsewhere. On Saturday high pressure persists to the NE with lighter
winds for Scotland and a mixture of ENE'lies and easterlies elsewhere. On
Sunday easterlies affect all areas, with high pressure to the NE.

T+120 synopsis

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12014.png
/http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a textbook "split jet" pattern, with one branch
heading eastwards south of Svalbard and the other branch moving eastwards
over the Canaries. The UK lies between the two, with light winds aloft. At
the 500hPa level there's a high to the NE and an upper cold pool over
northern France. Winds are easterlies and SE'lies aloft. MetO has easterlies
aloft, again with a high to the NE, while ECM brings upper SSE'lies with its
high to the east. GEM has a high to the NE and upper ESE'lies.
At the surface, GFS has SE'lies for all with a high to the NE and a low to
the WSW. MetO has a high over southern Norway and a low WNW of Iberia, with
moderate easterlies across the UK. ECM brings ESE'lies with a low NW of the
Azores, while GEM has a low SW of Biscay and stronger easterlies over the
UK.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows SE'lies on day 6 as the high moves SE'wards. SE'lies persist for
many on day 7, but a small ridge over England brings easterlies there.
On day 6 with GFS high pressure lies to the NE, with a cold pool and surface
low over northern France. Moderate ENE'lies and NE'lies cover southern
England, with lighter east or SE winds elsewhere. On day 7 pressure builds
to the north, forcing the cold pool eastwards and introducing northerlies to
eastern England. Elsewhere winds are SE'lies or ESE'lies.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 with ECM show a ridge moving down from the north. ENE'lies
cover England and Wales on day 8, with SE'lies elsewhere, followed by
NE'lies for all on day 9. By day 10 high pressure is centred over the North
Sea, with light winds for all.
GFS shows high pressure moving southwards on days 8 to 10. Day 8 sees
NNE'lies spreading across the UK from the east, followed by cold NE'lies and
easterlies on day 9 as pressure remains high to the north. On day 10 the
high moves over Scotland, bringing light winds there and penetrating NE'lies
across England and Wales. Northern Ireland lies under SE'lies.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lon dres)
The ensembles show cool weather for the next few days, followed by slightly
milder conditions. There's a 66/34 split in favour of renewed cold in the
New Year.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
net...
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Monday.
Issued 0515, Christmas Day 2008

Either way, a return to Atlantic conditions is not on the menu for the
forseeable future.

Oh thats so disappointing, i can't stand anymore of it. Wish I could get
away from this wretched place but I just can't at present. Have other
problems to attend to for now.
DaveR

Keep taking the pills Dave i'm with you 100% on this one!

Merry Doo Dahs

"Dave R." wrote in message
et...

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
net...
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Monday.
Issued 0515, Christmas Day 2008

Either way, a return to Atlantic conditions is not on the menu for the
forseeable future.

Oh thats so disappointing, i can't stand anymore of it. Wish I could get
away from this wretched place but I just can't at present. Have other
problems to attend to for now.
DaveR

"Ridge Runner" wrote in message
...
Keep taking the pills Dave i'm with you 100% on this one!

Merry Doo Dahs

An a cheap and cheerful one to you too
Oh god its coming in now from the East that wind is perishin'
Can someone design a "heat suit" like on Dragons Den or sommat?
DaveR