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Old December 30th 08, 12:17 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default GFS 18z ensembles - interesting !

Noticed that on January 7th every single member below -6C 850 hPa. Don't
remember that in recent times.
Dave



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Old December 30th 08, 09:34 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default GFS 18z ensembles - interesting !

Dave Cornwell wrote:
Noticed that on January 7th every single member below -6C 850 hPa.
Don't remember that in recent times.
Dave


Summats up I tell you :-)

Will
--


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Old December 30th 08, 09:38 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default GFS 18z ensembles - interesting !

On Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:34:32 -0000, Will Hand
wrote in

Noticed that on January 7th every single member below -6C 850 hPa.
Don't remember that in recent times.
Dave


Summats up I tell you :-)


A return to mild SWlies by the 7th? g

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 30/12/2008 09:38:31 GMT
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Old December 30th 08, 10:24 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default GFS 18z ensembles - interesting !

Mike Tullett wrote:

On Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:34:32 -0000, Will Hand
wrote in

Noticed that on January 7th every single member below -6C 850 hPa.
Don't remember that in recent times.
Dave


Summats up I tell you :-)


A return to mild SWlies by the 7th? g


According to the 00Z run, yes!

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy

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Old December 30th 08, 10:43 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default GFS 18z ensembles - interesting !

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
Noticed that on January 7th every single member below -6C 850 hPa. Don't
remember that in recent times.


It must be rare to get that degree of unanimity 9 days out at any time
of year and in any conditions.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)


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Old December 30th 08, 11:20 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default GFS 18z ensembles - interesting !

On 30 Dec, 09:38, Mike Tullett wrote:

Summats up I tell you :-)


A return to mild SWlies by the 7th? g


Well, Mike,
Copley moles now quite active, so probably sooner than 7th.
Ken
Copley, Durham
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Old December 30th 08, 03:25 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default GFS 18z ensembles - interesting !


A return to mild SWlies by the 7th? g

Just what Dave R is praying for

Now when GFS is forecasting mild weather it's usually spot on, it's only
when it tries forecasting cold, snowy conditions it goes into fantasy
land!!
I still think this cold spell will fizzle out to nowt and January will
end up above average and February way above average.
We will look back in March and think it was no different than any other
Winter in the last 10 years or so!!

And to think it had some people believing it could be another 63

It's just a shame the cold spell since xmas as been so overcast. Don't
want much more of this even if it means going back to SWlies!!
--
Graham
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Old December 30th 08, 03:54 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default GFS 18z ensembles - interesting !


"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
Noticed that on January 7th every single member below -6C 850 hPa. Don't
remember that in recent times.


It must be rare to get that degree of unanimity 9 days out at any time
of year and in any conditions.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

--------------------
Well that's what I thought. While I don't expect it to be like that I will
stick my neck out and disagree with Graham. It's been cold all of December
so far bar a couple of days. I think this cold spell will last for at least
the next two weeks. After that it may become mild but it may also continue
cold. Somewhere will get some snow, probably quite a few places. So no 1963
but perhaps a bit different to most this decade.
Dave
www.laindonweather.co.uk


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Old December 30th 08, 04:11 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default GFS 18z ensembles - interesting !

Dave Cornwell wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
Noticed that on January 7th every single member below -6C 850 hPa. Don't
remember that in recent times.

It must be rare to get that degree of unanimity 9 days out at any time
of year and in any conditions.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

--------------------
Well that's what I thought. While I don't expect it to be like that I will
stick my neck out and disagree with Graham. It's been cold all of December
so far bar a couple of days. I think this cold spell will last for at least
the next two weeks. After that it may become mild but it may also continue
cold. Somewhere will get some snow, probably quite a few places. So no 1963
but perhaps a bit different to most this decade.
Dave
www.laindonweather.co.uk



Of course the famous winter of 1947 never got going until the third week
in January, but looking at both GFS and ECMWF I'm still very skeptical
about the whole thing and pin my hopes on Will's forecast. If Will's
forecast comes off I'll eat my hat, as they say ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net
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Old December 30th 08, 06:17 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default GFS 18z ensembles - interesting !

In article ,
Graham writes:
snip
It's just a shame the cold spell since xmas as been so overcast. Don't
want much more of this even if it means going back to SWlies!!


You've been unlucky. In my part of Surrey, we had sunny periods on
Boxing Day and since then there's been almost unbroken sunshine every
day. This morning dawned overcast, and I thought that the sunshine was
over, but by 0am the sky was blue once more. (The cloud seemed to
dissolve away in situ rather than move away.) Though the nights have
been frosty and the days cold, it's been absolutely glorious.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)


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