Hi just got back, and apart from a drier story for Monday nothing seems to
have changed much.
Models are still struggling with the block big-time I notice with UKMO
dramatically collapsing it. I rate a collapse this week on available
evidence at 30%, and prefer to go with other models and ensembles on
maintaining high pressure over UK giving very cold frosty nights and dry
weather. The cold front tomorrow could give a bit of sleet and snow inland
in eastern areas. The interesting thing is that this block could still go
either way depending on how troughs disrupt in the western Atlantic, get a
strong upper wind SW'ly push to the east of Greenland and it will topple
away smartly into the Balkans. This does seem the more likely scenario I
have to say given the appearance of some very warm 564DAM air in the
forecast jet at T+132 in GFS. But we shall see, that is the beauty and
dynamical interest. Introduce a strong southerly jet west of Greenland and
we are in for a long bitter spell, but I rate this as low probability ATM.

Will
--

OK studied the situation a bit more and with benefit of 06Z GFS run (which
may be an outlier of course but does seem to be a reasonable compromise).

Powerful westerly jet does indeed seem very likely now in western Atlantic
(aided by 564DAM air), this is pointing straight at the block and is hence
a powerful mechanism for breaking it down. But it does not seem to want to
propagate east very quickly, indeed earlier UKMO and ECMWF did not really
want to either so some consistency there. Lows are spawned and run to east
of Greenland but the upper flow starts to disrupt at circa 15-20W and push
low PV air north which will have the effect of transferring the block east
into the Baltic rather than the Balkans, given the very cold air eblished to
our east by then this seems very reasonable. So for the UK I fancy that next
weekend (possibly a little earlier) may see a transition to a strengthening
cold southerly/SSEly given the cold over France as very mild Atlantic air
pushes into Ireland.
Obvious problems then of rain turning to snow moving east. 06Z GFS pushes
everything through beyond T+180 but I feel it will struggle a bit more than
that as the high over the Baltic seems to collapse too quickly in the 12
hours from T+180 to T+192 due to model resolution change.

Probability of block breaking down later this week into a cold
southerly/SSE'ly with fronts coming in from west - 70%
Probability of block not breaking down but staying over UK - 25%
Probability of a bitterly cold spell with block re-establishing to
north/west UK - 5%

Oh what fun!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Hi just got back, and apart from a drier story for Monday nothing seems to
have changed much.
Models are still struggling with the block big-time I notice with UKMO
dramatically collapsing it. I rate a collapse this week on available
evidence at 30%, and prefer to go with other models and ensembles on
maintaining high pressure over UK giving very cold frosty nights and dry
weather. The cold front tomorrow could give a bit of sleet and snow inland
in eastern areas. The interesting thing is that this block could still go
either way depending on how troughs disrupt in the western Atlantic, get a
strong upper wind SW'ly push to the east of Greenland and it will topple
away smartly into the Balkans. This does seem the more likely scenario I
have to say given the appearance of some very warm 564DAM air in the
forecast jet at T+132 in GFS. But we shall see, that is the beauty and
dynamical interest. Introduce a strong southerly jet west of Greenland and
we are in for a long bitter spell, but I rate this as low probability ATM.

Will
----------------------
Well, either way, it was pretty cold last night at -7.4C , haven't seen that
for a while and more opportunities for low night temperatures to come. If I
get a dusting of snow from that cold front in the early hours of Monday and
it stays I could be in for some even lower temperatures I think.
Dave
--

On Jan 3, 11:13*am, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message

...

Hi just got back, and apart from a drier story for Monday nothing seems to
have changed much.
Models are still struggling with the block big-time I notice with UKMO
dramatically collapsing it. I rate a collapse this week on available
evidence at 30%, and prefer to go with other models and ensembles on
maintaining high pressure over UK giving very cold frosty nights and dry
weather. The cold front tomorrow could give a bit of sleet and snow inland
in eastern areas. The interesting thing is that this block could still go
either way depending on how troughs disrupt in the western Atlantic, get a
strong upper wind SW'ly push to the east of Greenland and it will topple
away smartly into the Balkans. This does seem the more likely scenario I
have to say given the appearance of some very warm 564DAM air in the
forecast jet at T+132 in GFS. But we shall see, that is the beauty and
dynamical interest. Introduce a strong southerly jet west of Greenland and
we are in for a long bitter spell, but I rate this as low probability ATM.

Will

----------------------
Well, either way, it was pretty cold last night at -7.4C , haven't seen that
for a while and more opportunities for low night temperatures to come. If I
get a dusting of snow from that cold front in the early hours of Monday and
it stays I could be in for some even lower temperatures I think.
Dave

--

Yep looks like the return of the atlantic by end of the week as the
high pressure cell slip away south.
Very disappointing as i thought we were heading for a big freeze after
some of the model runs over the xmas break.
Any ideas Will how you see the rest of jan / early feb panning out,
tricky one i know with the way the models have been.
Look like Joe *******i is going to be wrong again with his prediction
for uk but he did say mid Jan for the fun and games so you never know,
maybe
a twist or two yet, we shall see
Neil

wrote in message news:58b3b395-8231-418e-94da-

Yep looks like the return of the atlantic by end of the week as the
high pressure cell slip away south.

That's the way I see it. Mobility of sorts across the north and a Bartlett
High to the south with little or no precipitation in this part of the world.

Jon. (tropical east Devon)

Look like Joe *******i is going to be wrong again with his prediction
for uk but he did say mid Jan for the fun and games so you never know,
maybe
a twist or two yet, we shall see
Neil
--------------------
Reading between the lines, when he wrote that I reckon by mid-January he
meant the cold spell which we will have next week would lead to
subsequently (but not with a two week mild break in between!). From the
synoptic discussions that seemed to be kicking around at the time either the
HP was due to move north over Iceland/Greenland and/or the cold pool over
Europe would "flood" west. I may be wrong but that was the general
impression I got. I mean this "patience Grasshopper" stuff could mean March!
Dave

I mean this "patience Grasshopper" stuff could mean March!
Dave


With the warm January and February months we now get I reckon March and
April are the only chance we have of any real snow
Joe's big freeze is almost over so all the GW lobby can relax, it was
never really on was it.
I never once got excited by the GFS fantasy charts, seen it all too much
in the last 10 years.
By the end of February we will be commenting on yet another mild winter,
and so it goes on. I'm certain the days of 1979, 1963, 1947 and such
likes will never be repeated again, at least in our lifetimes.

Still cloudy here in a very dull Weston Coyney (nothing changes, bit
like a UK winter).

Current temp 1.3c


--
Graham

On 3 Jan, 14:18, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
Look like Joe *******i is going to be wrong again with his prediction
for uk but he did say mid Jan for the fun and games so you never know,
maybe
a twist or two yet, we shall see
Neil
--------------------
Reading between the lines, when he wrote that I reckon by mid-January he
meant *the cold spell which we will have next week would lead to
subsequently (but not with a two week mild break in between!). From the
synoptic discussions that seemed to be kicking around at the time either the
HP was due to move north over Iceland/Greenland and/or the cold pool over
Europe would "flood" west. I may be wrong *but that was the general
impression I got. I mean this "patience Grasshopper" stuff could mean March!
Dave

I get the impression that Joe B pins his forecast entirely on the GFS
fantasy charts... And by hinting that the real cold my not hit until
March he's got a very good chance of being right as the first two
weeks of March are often colder than February. But, as everyone knows,
a cold spell then is hopeless for lowland Britain, at least in the
south...

Scott W wrote:
On 3 Jan, 14:18, "Dave Cornwell"

Well, it's all a massive disappointment once again, can't say I'm really
surprised, but it did have me going for quite a time. Again, the old
mistakes were made, to much was hinged in the models beyond 6 days. Back
to work on Monday so if anything comes in January or February, it's just
going to get in the way of commuting to and from work, but you never
know it may come on a Friday evening and last until Sunday ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith (Southend) wrote:
Scott W wrote:
On 3 Jan, 14:18, "Dave Cornwell"

Well, it's all a massive disappointment once again, can't say I'm really
surprised, but it did have me going for quite a time. Again, the old
mistakes were made, to much was hinged in the models beyond 6 days. Back
to work on Monday so if anything comes in January or February, it's just
going to get in the way of commuting to and from work, but you never
know it may come on a Friday evening and last until Sunday ;-)


http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html

If you just looked at the fax charts you could easily think there's
still a 50/50 chance of a colder plunge possible later next week, but of
course we all know better :-(
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net