Although from a snow point of view it's been disappointing, I'm
beginning to think that the forecasts, although at times a little
dramatic, haven't been that far from the truth. Also, not forgetting
it's only the 5th January, there's a lot more possible mileage in this
winter yet. Also, it doesn't really look such a forgone conclusion that
we are going to turn mild in the next week. Interesting times :-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:37:10 +0000, Keith (Southend) wrote in


Although from a snow point of view it's been disappointing, I'm
beginning to think that the forecasts, although at times a little
dramatic, haven't been that far from the truth. Also, not forgetting
it's only the 5th January, there's a lot more possible mileage in this
winter yet. Also, it doesn't really look such a forgone conclusion that
we are going to turn mild in the next week. Interesting times :-)

My take on the models is the NW will turn milder/wetter by the weekend, but
the SE will continue to be influenced by the high. While that is still
nearby (and all models suggest it will be for some time), there is a high
risk of cold conditions returning, at least to the south and east. As PE
says, there is so little mobility in our part of the N Hemisphere that
anything is still possible.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 05/01/2009 19:46:56 GMT

On 5 Jan, 19:37, "Keith (Southend)" wrote:
Although from a snow point of view it's been disappointing, I'm
beginning to think that the forecasts, although at times a little
dramatic, haven't been that far from the truth. Also, not forgetting
it's only the 5th January, there's a lot more possible mileage in this
winter yet. Also, it doesn't really look such a forgone conclusion that
we are going to turn mild in the next week. Interesting times :-)

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Philip Eden (in another thread) made an interesting comment earlier
that because mobility across the Atlantic has been so weak this winter
it's difficult to see any mild spell lasting a long time...

Interesting times indeed!

On Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:37:10 +0000, Keith (Southend) wrote:

I'm
beginning to think that the forecasts, although at times a little
dramatic, haven't been that far from the truth.

Quite right.

This has been by far the coldest we've had here in Ramsgate for the last
3 years. We even had a dusting of snow this morning (200m from the
harbour side).

Simon Bennett wrote:
On Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:37:10 +0000, Keith (Southend) wrote:

I'm
beginning to think that the forecasts, although at times a little
dramatic, haven't been that far from the truth.

Quite right.

This has been by far the coldest we've had here in Ramsgate for the last
3 years. We even had a dusting of snow this morning (200m from the
harbour side).

http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

All over the place after a week.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On 5 Jan, 20:30, "Keith (Southend)" wrote:
Simon Bennett wrote:
On Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:37:10 +0000, Keith (Southend) wrote:

I'm
beginning to think that the forecasts, although at times a little
dramatic, haven't been that far from the truth.

Quite right.

This has been by far the coldest we've had here in Ramsgate for the last
3 years. We even had a dusting of snow this morning (200m from the
harbour side).

http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

All over the place after a week.

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

That's what you call a dog's dinner...

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Simon Bennett wrote:
On Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:37:10 +0000, Keith (Southend) wrote:

I'm
beginning to think that the forecasts, although at times a little
dramatic, haven't been that far from the truth.

Quite right.

This has been by far the coldest we've had here in Ramsgate for the last
3 years. We even had a dusting of snow this morning (200m from the
harbour side).

http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

All over the place after a week.

What would be the 'normal' varation after a week?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

In article ,
"Keith (Southend)" writes:
http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

All over the place after a week.

Yes, but then I think it almost always is.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Although from a snow point of view it's been disappointing, I'm beginning
to think that the forecasts, although at times a little dramatic, haven't
been that far from the truth. Also, not forgetting it's only the 5th
January, there's a lot more possible mileage in this winter yet. Also, it
doesn't really look such a forgone conclusion that we are going to turn
mild in the next week. Interesting times :-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net
------------------------
This is what Joe *******i, for one, said on Dec 19th:-

"In fact, Temps over the next month or so are liable to average 6-10 degrees
F below normal over the center part of the continent with the northwest
coldest last, but still getting into the games. Intuitive with this is the
likelihood of more than normal snow and ice. As the upper block backs west,
arctic discharges from the north and east are liable to bring shots of
severe cold back into England and with it enhanced snowfall."

I suppose at this point in time he is not too far off the mark. If there is
a shortish mild spell and it turns colder here with substantial snow fall
later in the month I think it will be pretty good. If it stays mild to cool
for the rest of the month then I will see this as a cold spell but not the
scenario that was being forecast.

Dave

On Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:37:10 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

Although from a snow point of view it's been disappointing, I'm
beginning to think that the forecasts, although at times a little
dramatic, haven't been that far from the truth. Also, not forgetting
it's only the 5th January, there's a lot more possible mileage in this
winter yet. Also, it doesn't really look such a forgone conclusion that
we are going to turn mild in the next week. Interesting times :-)

I still have a strong feeling that this Winter is "different" and that
it will remain so. I well recall that in 1963, there were several
false alarms about the return of the milder air and that when it did,
it didn't get far or last long.

Perhaps it's time for the GFS to reverse it's most common annoyance
for many of us, that of the ever receding T+144 and beyond cold
outbreak, which rarely happens. Perhaps the time of the ever receding
T+144 Westerlies has come...

--
Dave