"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
Keith (Southend) wrote:
Tom Bennett wrote:
On Jan 22, 6:27 pm, wrote:
Three GFS runs now indicate an easterly setting in during the first
week of Feb.
snip

It would be fitting to see this winter culminate in at least 1
decent, old-fashioned snowy spell. It feels as if it's been
gradually building up to something since the early start we had in
October. - Tom.
It's all after 7 days on GFS, you know it won't happen, don't punish
yourselves again. Now wheres those pills?

Well I thought I hinted at a possible block going into Feb. a few days
ago. Also PE a couple of weeks back. But where will it be? Conditions are
coming right, the jet has sunk south and it cannot get any further south
without breaking up due to decreased thermal contrast through diabatic
warming of the cold air, and once that happens the longwave pattern
re-aligns opening the door for a change of type. Easterlies are
dynamically and scientifically sensible Keith, ECMWF has been hinting at
a change of type too, also JMA both excellent models as we know. GFS
won't get the detail we know that, but I would say that there is a 60%
chance now of another block developing by the end of the month.

Will
--



Thanks Will, I thought my 'prod with a stick' might get a response ;-)

All the same the weather is a lot more interesting atm, tonights low could
throw up some news.

Thanks
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net
--------------------
I'm losing track as to whether this is the December, January or February
predicted easterly. ;-)
Dave

On Jan 23, 4:27*pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message

...



Will Hand wrote:
Keith (Southend) wrote:
Tom Bennett wrote:
On Jan 22, 6:27 pm, wrote:
Three GFS runs now indicate an easterly setting in during the first
week of Feb.
snip

It would be fitting to see this winter culminate in at least 1
decent, old-fashioned snowy spell. *It feels as if it's been
gradually building up to something since the early start we had in
October. - *Tom.
It's all after 7 days on GFS, you know it won't happen, don't punish
yourselves again. Now wheres those pills?

Well I thought I hinted at a possible block going into Feb. a few days
ago. Also PE a couple of weeks back. But where will it be? Conditions are
coming right, the jet has sunk south and it cannot get any further south
without breaking up due to decreased thermal contrast through diabatic
warming of the cold air, and once that happens the longwave pattern
re-aligns opening the door for a change of type. Easterlies are
dynamically and scientifically sensible Keith, ECMWF has been hinting at
a change of type too, also JMA both excellent models as we know. GFS
won't get the detail we know that, but I would say that there is a 60%
chance now of another block developing by the end of the month.

Will
--

Thanks Will, I thought my 'prod with a stick' might get a response ;-)

All the same the weather is a lot more interesting atm, tonights low could
throw up some news.

Thanks
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

--------------------
I'm losing track as to whether this is the December, January or February
predicted easterly. ;-)
Dave- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Surely it the March version