Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Monday.
Issued 0525, 5th February 2009

There's a big split in the models today. Unsettled weather will continue
early next week, but the difference comes with regard to the temperatures.
The European models show the cold spel continuing, with an ongoing risk of
snow in places, while the GFS has much milder temperatures (and is well
supported by its ensembles). Towards the end of the week GFS brings mild
conditions across the UK, while ECM keeps things on the cold side.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
Low pressure lies to the SW, with easterlies over England and Wales and
NNE'lies elsewhere. Tomorrow thw low moves slowly eastwards, with a col over
England and northerlies elsewhere. By Saturday low pressure lies to the
east, with NNW'lies across the UK. A weak ridge brings WNW'lies on Sunday.

T+120 synopsis
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a zonal flow over the North Atlantic, with the UK
under a ridge. At the 500hPa level there's a trough to the west and upper
southerlies, while MetO shows upper westerlies instead. ECM also shows upper
westerlies, with a similar setup to MetO. GEM has SW'lies aloft, with a
trough to the west.
At the surface, GFS has a deep low over the Isles of Scilly, with strong to
gale force SE'lies over much of the UK. MetO shows a shallower low over
northern France, with northerlies for England. Elsewhere winds are light due
to a col. ECM brings light WSW'lies over the UK, with a shallow low to the
west of Scotland. GEM also has a low to the west of Scotland but also a
deeper low to the SW of the UK, with southerlies and SSW'lies as a result.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows NNW'lies over the UK on day 6 as low pressure deepens to the SW.
On day 7 a ridge moves over Ireland, leading to NW'lies for the UK.
GFS brings heavy rain over the UK on day 6 as a low moves away eastwards. On
day 7 a ridge builds from the SW, with light winds for England and Wales and
strong SSW'lies elsewhere.

Looking further afield
ECM brings light winds and a weak ridge on day 8. On day 9 a low crosses the
UK and day 10 sees NNW'lies as the low deepens to the SE.
Day 8 with GFS shows SW'lies for all on day 8 with the Azores High to the
south. The high builds on day 9, with further SW'lies for most. On day 10
the high persists, with WSW'lies for all.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles show an average few days early next week, followed by a mild
spell.