MetO 18Z analysis has the centre of the developing low a little further west
than the T+6 UKMO and GFS wanted. Satellite imagery also shows a developing
cloud head and striations in the warm air, both indicative that rapid
deepening is imminent. This is going to be one hell of a storm I fancy.
Batten down the hatches guys we have a big one on the way. These storms
often start to come north as they deepen but then the rapid rotation and dig
in of cold air usually makes them spin almost "loop the loop" and head off
rapidly on a more eastward course. It would seem that the predicted track of
running up the Channel is about right, but I expect it might well be deeper
and a tad slower in coming and going. Lots of wind and rain and snow in NW
quadrant.

Will
--

Good luck Guys, that is going to be quite a storm ! Keep safe.


"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
MetO 18Z analysis has the centre of the developing low a little further
west than the T+6 UKMO and GFS wanted.

Will Hand wrote:
This is going to be one hell of a storm I fancy.
Batten down the hatches guys we have a big one on the way.
Will

Some quite strong language there Will, I better get down the off-license
quick ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

fred wrote in message
...
Good luck Guys, that is going to be quite a storm ! Keep safe.


"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
MetO 18Z analysis has the centre of the developing low a little further
west than the T+6 UKMO and GFS wanted.




near enough peak spring tides , actually 11 Feb is peaks

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:
This is going to be one hell of a storm I fancy.
Batten down the hatches guys we have a big one on the way.
Will

Some quite strong language there Will, I better get down the
off-license quick ;-)


.... going to be a tricky one this: both for the forecasters and the
services on the ground dealing with the results (both in BI & France).
I don't like these beasts that develop near the left-exit of one jet
and the right-entrance of another (both developmental areas). As Will
says, it's very dependent upon the model analysis whether the outcome
(NWP) is a perfect forecast - but whatever, this is going to be a 'bit
of a do'!

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

"Will Hand" wrote in
:

MetO 18Z analysis has the centre of the developing low a little
further west than the T+6 UKMO and GFS wanted. Satellite imagery also
shows a developing cloud head and striations in the warm air, both
indicative that rapid deepening is imminent. This is going to be one
hell of a storm I fancy. Batten down the hatches guys we have a big
one on the way. These storms often start to come north as they deepen
but then the rapid rotation and dig in of cold air usually makes them
spin almost "loop the loop" and head off rapidly on a more eastward
course.

Will - if a bent-back front is forming in this case (not looked at the
thermal structure in the progs), this has always been an interesting on for
me in terms of "unexpected" snow.

That's quite a sizeable cloud head in the imagery. Very threatening.

Richard

"Martin Rowley" wrote in
:

... going to be a tricky one this: both for the forecasters and the
services on the ground dealing with the results (both in BI & France).
I don't like these beasts that develop near the left-exit of one jet
and the right-entrance of another (both developmental areas). As Will
says, it's very dependent upon the model analysis whether the outcome
(NWP) is a perfect forecast - but whatever, this is going to be a 'bit
of a do'!

Martin - I take heart in the consistency of all the models dealing with
this development over the past 5 days.

Of course they could be all wrong in terms of intensity, track etc. but one
would hope that the inter-model and inter-run consistency points to a
hopefully good forecast !

Richard

In article ,
Richard Dixon writes:
"Martin Rowley" wrote in
:

... going to be a tricky one this: both for the forecasters and the
services on the ground dealing with the results (both in BI & France).
I don't like these beasts that develop near the left-exit of one jet
and the right-entrance of another (both developmental areas). As Will
says, it's very dependent upon the model analysis whether the outcome
(NWP) is a perfect forecast - but whatever, this is going to be a 'bit
of a do'!

Martin - I take heart in the consistency of all the models dealing with
this development over the past 5 days.

Of course they could be all wrong in terms of intensity, track etc. but one
would hope that the inter-model and inter-run consistency points to a
hopefully good forecast !

I think one problem is that an error of as little as say 30 miles in the
N-S positioning of the track could make a big difference in where gets
snow and where gets only rain.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
. 253...
"Will Hand" wrote in
:

MetO 18Z analysis has the centre of the developing low a little
further west than the T+6 UKMO and GFS wanted. Satellite imagery also
shows a developing cloud head and striations in the warm air, both
indicative that rapid deepening is imminent. This is going to be one
hell of a storm I fancy. Batten down the hatches guys we have a big
one on the way. These storms often start to come north as they deepen
but then the rapid rotation and dig in of cold air usually makes them
spin almost "loop the loop" and head off rapidly on a more eastward
course.

Will - if a bent-back front is forming in this case (not looked at the
thermal structure in the progs), this has always been an interesting on
for
me in terms of "unexpected" snow.

That's quite a sizeable cloud head in the imagery. Very threatening.

Richard
-----------------------------
Could somebody estimate at what times of day in each area we can expect the
most severe conditions so that we can warn people, be it wind, rain or snow?
Dave

On Feb 8, 9:07*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
MetO 18Z analysis has the centre of the developing low a little further west
than the T+6 UKMO and GFS wanted. Satellite imagery also shows a developing
cloud head and striations in the warm air, both indicative that rapid
deepening is imminent. This is going to be one hell of a storm I fancy.
Batten down the hatches guys we have a big one on the way. These storms
often start to come north as they deepen but then the rapid rotation and dig
in of cold air usually makes them spin almost "loop the loop" and head off
rapidly on a more eastward course. It would seem that the predicted track of
running up the Channel is about right, but I expect it might well be deeper
and a tad slower in coming and going. Lots of wind and rain and snow in NW
quadrant.

Will
--

Will I do like you, but I feel you are getting a tad carried away, it
will al be forgotten this time next week