It would appear that Mr.*******i's warning of continued severe cold and
Will's thoughts of a cold outbreak and false Spring now look to have been
postponed or abandoned. Despite the charts seemingly unanimous on a strong
northerly a couple of days ago it seems less likely now. More than a week
ahead again ........... always the same. Some good drying weather instead,
hopefully.

Dave

so much for a false spring!

is the cold still on Will?


Dave Cornwell wrote:
It would appear that Mr.*******i's warning of continued severe cold and
Will's thoughts of a cold outbreak and false Spring now look to have been
postponed or abandoned. Despite the charts seemingly unanimous on a strong
northerly a couple of days ago it seems less likely now. More than a week
ahead again ........... always the same. Some good drying weather instead,
hopefully.

Dave

Very much so. As we go into March we should end up with an easterly. I'm not
relying on model outputs for this, but the following reasoning. The
northerly (which I never really talked about) was never really on IMO.
Instead, if you remember I talked about a return to Atlantic mobility from
NW to SE, that will happen of sorts but the main effect will be to transfer
the high cell from over us to just further east and then build over
Scandinavia. There is just enough progression in the longwaves to allow
this. Once established the pattern will be of the correct wavelength to
become stationary allowing the very cold and potentially bitter spell with
widespread snow to begin.

Will
--

terry tibbs wrote:
so much for a false spring!

is the cold still on Will?


Dave Cornwell wrote:
It would appear that Mr.*******i's warning of continued severe cold
and Will's thoughts of a cold outbreak and false Spring now look to
have been postponed or abandoned. Despite the charts seemingly
unanimous on a strong northerly a couple of days ago it seems less
likely now. More than a week ahead again ........... always the
same. Some good drying weather instead, hopefully.

Dave

cheers Will...

great insight as always.

Will Hand wrote:
Very much so. As we go into March we should end up with an easterly. I'm not
relying on model outputs for this, but the following reasoning. The
northerly (which I never really talked about) was never really on IMO.
Instead, if you remember I talked about a return to Atlantic mobility from
NW to SE, that will happen of sorts but the main effect will be to transfer
the high cell from over us to just further east and then build over
Scandinavia. There is just enough progression in the longwaves to allow
this. Once established the pattern will be of the correct wavelength to
become stationary allowing the very cold and potentially bitter spell with
widespread snow to begin.

Will
--

terry tibbs wrote:
so much for a false spring!

is the cold still on Will?


Dave Cornwell wrote:
It would appear that Mr.*******i's warning of continued severe cold
and Will's thoughts of a cold outbreak and false Spring now look to
have been postponed or abandoned. Despite the charts seemingly
unanimous on a strong northerly a couple of days ago it seems less
likely now. More than a week ahead again ........... always the
same. Some good drying weather instead, hopefully.

Dave

this. Once established the pattern will be of the correct wavelength to
become stationary allowing the very cold and potentially bitter spell with
widespread snow to begin.

Bloody Hell Will. I hope you're wrong.

My 30 cm soil temps are on there way up (6.9°C), the weeds are starting to
grow and so is the grass, and the daises were out today. That means it's
time for the broad beans to go in (noticed a few already growing well on
other allotment plots).

Whilst down on the allotment today I saw the rooks building nests, there
were a few ladybirds (7 spotted) about, a Red Admiral flew by and so did a
few bumble bees. A 'potentially bitter spell' is the last thing needed.

Just a few brief glimpses of the sun today. A max of 11.5°C after an
overnight low of 7.1°C.

(20:35), 8.6°C, RH 86%, DP 6.2°C, 1026 hPa (F), Wind 1 mph NE.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Very much so. As we go into March we should end up with an easterly. I'm
not relying on model outputs for this, but the following reasoning. The
northerly (which I never really talked about) was never really on IMO.
Instead, if you remember I talked about a return to Atlantic mobility from
NW to SE, that will happen of sorts but the main effect will be to
transfer the high cell from over us to just further east and then build
over Scandinavia. There is just enough progression in the longwaves to
allow
Will
--

terry tibbs wrote:
so much for a false spring!

is the cold still on Will?


Dave Cornwell wrote:
It would appear that Mr.*******i's warning of continued severe cold
and Will's thoughts of a cold outbreak and false Spring now look to
have been postponed or abandoned. Despite the charts seemingly
unanimous on a strong northerly a couple of days ago it seems less
likely now. More than a week ahead again ........... always the
same. Some good drying weather instead, hopefully.

Dave

In article ,
Will Hand writes:
the main effect will be to transfer
the high cell from over us to just further east and then build over
Scandinavia. There is just enough progression in the longwaves to allow
this. Once established the pattern will be of the correct wavelength to
become stationary allowing the very cold and potentially bitter spell with
widespread snow to begin.

My own experience suggests that by the time we get almost into March we
generally need a north-easterly for real cold, since Europe to the south
of the Baltic tends to be warming up rapidly as the sun gains in power.
So a lot is likely to depend on the precise position of the High and
whether it produces a north-easter or an easterly.

I can still remember March, 1962 as showing what a persistent NEly can
do.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

John Hall wrote:

My own experience suggests that by the time we get almost into March we
generally need a north-easterly for real cold, since Europe to the south
of the Baltic tends to be warming up rapidly as the sun gains in power.

Not right now it isn't. 23 Cm of snow today, 13 of them in the past 4
hours, and snow forecast for the next week. Currently -3 in south east
Bulgaria, with a 25Kt Northerly and heavy snow. 23 Cm on the car roof,
55 cm up against the north side of the car.

--
Keith

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Very much so. As we go into March we should end up with an easterly. I'm
not relying on model outputs for this ..........

---------------------------
.............. thankfully. Models 0 Seaweed 1 ;-)

Dave

Looking forward to getting some warm sun, and start tanning

For lowland Southern England, once we get to March, i think the chance
of lasting snow decreases.

I'm not saying that Snow showers are no longer possible.. the strength
of the sun would soon melt any laying snow during the day

It's been an interesting winter... this week has seen a return to
boring grey rubbish... now i say roll on Spring, and roll on
Convection :-)

On Feb 19, 2:48*am, BlueLightning wrote:
Looking forward to getting some warm sun, and start tanning

For lowland Southern England, once we get to March, i think the chance
of lasting snow decreases.

I'm not saying that Snow showers are no longer possible.. the strength
of the sun would soon melt any laying snow during the day

It's been an interesting winter... this week has seen a return to
boring grey rubbish... now i say roll on Spring, and roll on
Convection :-)

It was convection that gave us all that snow, at least in
this part of the world.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.