I take it the Storm now in the Channel and just about to come inland on the
SE coast is not the main event.
I see the TAFs are now showing TSRA from 08Z for Heathrow and Gatwick, much
earlier than previous ones.
From the forecasts, I get the feeling that it was going to happen further
West (in SW and CEN areas) with the SE just getting is own storms due t the
high temperatures later in the day.

Phil

--
www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
I take it the Storm now in the Channel and just about to come inland on the
SE coast is not the main event.
I see the TAFs are now showing TSRA from 08Z for Heathrow and Gatwick,
much earlier than previous ones.
From the forecasts, I get the feeling that it was going to happen further
West (in SW and CEN areas) with the SE just getting is own storms due t
the high temperatures later in the day.


Are the echoes over Cambridgeshire examples of 'anaprop'?
The way they appear and dissapear then re-appear just
doesn't look right to me.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
I take it the Storm now in the Channel and just about to come inland on
the SE coast is not the main event.
I see the TAFs are now showing TSRA from 08Z for Heathrow and Gatwick,
much earlier than previous ones.
From the forecasts, I get the feeling that it was going to happen further
West (in SW and CEN areas) with the SE just getting is own storms due t
the high temperatures later in the day.


Are the echoes over Cambridgeshire examples of 'anaprop'?
The way they appear and dissapear then re-appear just
doesn't look right to me.
--
Col

Thats what I reckon Col. They have the typical scatter returns.(plus there
are no reports!)

Phil

On Monday, in article
"Phil Layton" wrote:

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
I take it the Storm now in the Channel and just about to come inland on
the SE coast is not the main event.
I see the TAFs are now showing TSRA from 08Z for Heathrow and Gatwick,
much earlier than previous ones.
From the forecasts, I get the feeling that it was going to happen further
West (in SW and CEN areas) with the SE just getting is own storms due t
the high temperatures later in the day.


Are the echoes over Cambridgeshire examples of 'anaprop'?
The way they appear and dissapear then re-appear just
doesn't look right to me.
--
Col

Thats what I reckon Col. They have the typical scatter returns.(plus there
are no reports!)

Phil




All times gmt.


Here in North Kent (Boughton-under-Blean) West of Canterbury. Light rain
(moderate at times) started at 0825 and is still light rain falling at 0915.

The manual gauges have collected .4, .3 and .3mm upto 0900.

On May 25, 10:24*am, (colin may) wrote:
On Monday, in article
* * "Phil Layton" wrote:
"Col" wrote in message
...
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...

I take it the Storm now in the Channel and just about to come inland on
the SE coast is not the main event. TAFs are now showing TSRA from
08Z for Heathrow and Gatwick, much earlier than previous ones.

From the forecasts, I get the feeling that it was going to happen further
West (in SW and CEN areas) *with the SE just getting is own storms due
to the high temperatures later in the day.

Are the echoes over Cambridgeshire examples of 'anaprop'?
The way they appear and disappear then re-appear just
doesn't look right to me.

That's what I reckon Col. They have the typical scatter returns.(plus there
are no reports!)

All times GMT.

Here in North Kent (Boughton-under-Blean) West of Canterbury. Light rain
(moderate at times) started at 0825 and is still light rain falling at 0915.

The manual gauges have collected .4, .3 and .3mm up to 0900.

According to RSMC-Tropical Cyclones New Delhi the tropical cyclone
producing the weather effect here was due to broach at midnight 25th
May 2009.

Tropical cyclone advisory

Rsmc – tropical cyclones, new delhi

Tropcal storm ‘aila’ advisory no five issued at 0300 utc of 25th may
2009 based on 0000 utc charts of 25th may 2009.

The cyclonic storm “aila” over northwest Bay of Bengal remained
practically stationary and lay centred at 00:00 UTC of today 25th May
2009 near. 20.00 N. 88.00 E. 140 km east of Paradip (42976), 180 km
south of Sagar Island (42903) and 300 km south west of Khepupara
(42984).

The system is likely to intensify further and move in a near northerly
direction and cross west Bengal coast near 88.00 E. (near Sagar
Island) today, 25th May 2009 between 09:00 and 12:00 UTC.

Satellite imagery indicates bending features system. Current intensity
of the system is t2.5 associated broken intense to very intense
convection observed over the Bay of Bengal north of lat. 14.50 N. and
long. 83.00 E. to 92.50 E., the lowest cloud top temperature (ctt)
due to convection is about -700c to -800c around the system centre.

Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated to be about 40 knots
gusting to 50 knots. State of the sea is high to very high around the
system centre. Estimated central pressure is about 980hpa.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is between 10-15 knots around
the system centre. The past 24 hours shear tendency is negative to the
north of the system centre. The system lies close to the upper
tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 21.00 N. in association
with the anticyclonic circulation over Myanmar and adjoining north Bay
of Bengal located to the east-north east of the system centre.

There is an upper tropospheric trough in westerlies west to the
system. Sea surface temperatures are warmer over north & central Bay
of Bengal. Majority of nwp models also suggest intensification of the
system and landfall over west Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast
near longitude 88.00 E.

Storm surge of about 2-3 meters above astronomical tide is likely to
inundate coastal areas of west Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast
at the time of landfall.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further
and move in a near northerly direction and cross west Bengal-
Bangladesh coast near latitude 88.00 E. (near Sagar Island) between
09:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC of 25th May 2009.

Based on latest analysis with numerical weather prediction (nwp)
models and other conventional techniques, estimated future track and
intensity of the system are given in the table below:

Date/Time(UTC)
Position (lat. 0N/long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (KNOTS)

25.05.2009/0000
20.0/88.0
40 gusting to 50

25.05.2009/0600
21.0/88.0
50 gusting to 60

25.05.2009/1200
22.0/88.0 (over land)
50gusting to 60

25.05.2009/1800
23.0/88.0 (over land)
30 gusting to 40

26.05.2009/0000
23.5/88.5 (over land)
25 gusting to 35

Gusts of 60 knots are not an example of a storm capable of maintaining
a sump dragging away the weather of the true value of good old
Weatherlawyer's code.

There was a 6.1 Mag.earthquake on the 24th May 2009. Kermadec Islands.
Immediately followed by a series of off switches on the US latest
quakes list.

(One more feature of the code I'm afraid. You'd have to do some work
of your own to get an explanation. Maybe it's in the bottom of a
locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the
door saying 'Beware of the Leopard'.", deep in the bowels of the Met
Office Library. Just go down to the display department in the cellar,
with a torch.

(Watch out for the stairs.))

On Mon, 25 May 2009 07:41:35 +0100, "Phil Layton"
wrote:

I take it the Storm now in the Channel and just about to come inland on the
SE coast is not the main event.
I see the TAFs are now showing TSRA from 08Z for Heathrow and Gatwick, much
earlier than previous ones.
From the forecasts, I get the feeling that it was going to happen further
West (in SW and CEN areas) with the SE just getting is own storms due t the
high temperatures later in the day.

In spite of some ugly looking radar returns all around us during the
evening, and continuing as I write, there was no measurable rain here
in West Fareham on Monday. Nothing more than a few drops from time to
time which never wet the floor (or me!).

Rainfall total midnight to midnight: Trace.

--
Dave
Fareham (West)