The Australian Met Bureau predict a 50% chance of an El Nino event in
2009.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

NOAA shows a split between the dynamical models (including the
Australian BoM one), most of which predict El Nino conditions
developing during our summer and the statistical models, all of which
predict continuing ENSO neutral conditions through our summer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...sts-web.ppt#27

ENSO is notoriously difficult to predict and it's state can change
very quickly. I'd actually like to see an El Nino develop as I'd like
to see a comparison to 1998, where a big El Nino led to that spike in
the global warming trend.

Dawlish wrote:
very quickly. I'd actually like to see an El Nino develop as I'd like
to see a comparison to 1998, where a big El Nino led to that spike in
the global warming trend.

You may not have to wait that long, and we could already be in El Niño
conditions. The warming of the SSTs over large parts of the Pacific has been
quite something in recent weeks.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS....6.18.2009.gif

I doubt though the warming will be as great as 1997/98 but the difference
this time is that the warming appears to be (so far) over a larger area.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

On Jun 18, 5:32*pm, "Nick Gardner"
wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
very quickly. I'd actually like to see an El Nino develop as I'd like
to see a comparison to 1998, where a big El Nino led to that spike in
the global warming trend.

You may not have to wait that long, and we could already be in El Niño
conditions. The warming of the SSTs over large parts of the Pacific has been
quite something in recent weeks.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS....6.18.2009.gif

I doubt though the warming will be as great as 1997/98 but the difference
this time is that the warming appears to be (so far) over a larger area.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amslhttp://www.ottervalley.co.uk

Here's another SST anomally map. Funny things going on in Baffin Bay.

Cheers, Alastair.

Alastair wrote:



Here's another SST anomally map. Funny things going on in Baffin Bay.


Where? The map, not Baffin Bay.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On Jun 18, 7:17*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
Alastair wrote:

Here's another SST anomally map. Funny things going on in Baffin Bay.

Where? The map, not Baffin Bay.

Oops!

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web...lobal_anom.gif

Cheers, Alastair

Alastair wrote:
Here's another SST anomally map. Funny things going on in Baffin
Bay.

Well, I don't know about Baffin Bay but in 1994 I went diving in Scapa Flow
in Orkney, it was mid-August and the sea temperature was 12°C, this was
regarded as being normal and the warmest you could expect.

It seems that the sea temperature has already reached 12°C around Orkney
about 2 months ahead of schedule. Blimey, how warm will it get up there this
year.

Last year the SSTs in Lyme Bay failed to make it above 20°C. In 2007 they
did finally during a hot spell in August and briefly peaked at 21.1°C.
Currently the SST is around 15.5°C which is nearly a degree up on this time
last year.

From now on is when we normally see the greatest warming of the SST, and
with good weather forecast I would not be surprised to see the SSTs heading
towards 19°C by the end of June, which is getting near to passing the
toe-test (no wetsuit required).
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

Alastair wrote:

On Jun 18, 7:17 pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
Alastair wrote:

Here's another SST anomally map. Funny things going on in Baffin Bay.

Where? The map, not Baffin Bay.

Oops!


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web...lobal_anom.gif

Cheers, Alastair

Looks like an error in judging SSTs in ice-covered areas - yet again! The
nincompoops producing these charts don't seem to have any idea as to how to
apportion sea temperature values in areas that are ice-covered, either in
the normals or current data. In both links (one from the OP) there are
erroneous cold anomalies in areas that are normally ice-covered though this
link shows up worse because current icy areas are blanked out in the earlier
one. According to this map, the SST in Hudson Bay, Kara Sea, and Baffin Bay
would appear be in the range -4 to -10C!

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."