Tell you what Richard; let's monitor this one. The scope of the "flash
warning of severe or extreme weather" forecast is this.

The headline for every area south of the border with Scotland and
north of a line from the Thames to mid-Wales is "Heavy rain". Not the
possibility of heavy rain, but a straight "Heavy rain". The site user
then has to go to their area where this is seen;

"Slow moving thunderstorms will develop this afternoon giving
torrential downpours and hail, although some places will miss them and
stay dry. However, in areas affected, 20-40mm of rain is likely in 3
hours or less. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to
the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on
motorways and trunk roads".

Not "many" places will miss them, but "some" places will miss them and
stay dry. That clearly implies that most areas will get them. At
present, any user of the warnings site, living within the orange
coloured areas, would be expecting that they are likely to see heavy
rain, though they may miss out (not my use of the word "may"; that's
exactly what is implied by this warning).

There is no reference to the weather radar, which at 15.30 shows the
vast majority of the areas under the flash warning as dry, with a
probable N/S line of showers through East Yorkshire and Humberside
(light rain in Humberside C/O XC weather, some showers in the NW (XC
weather reported light rain at Blackpool airport at 1609) and a few
very isolated showers (OK possible, rain may not be reaching the
ground) over other areas. Instead the user is directed to the
highways agency site (no link). Presently, the highways agency has no
mentio of heavy rain that I can find. There are more organised bands
of rain across the SW and S Wales; these are outside of the flash
warning area and probably rightly so. We've had a few drops in
Dawlish.

I'm sure these showers will break out in other areas and there are
lots of reports of Cbs, but let's see if most people in those areas
get heavy rain. A difficult one to monitor exactly, I know, but let's
have a go.

I hope this is one of the good forecasts and the evening should
cartainly see some very lively weather for some as we get
destabilisation across the flash warning area. I'll give my judgement
at outcome. Would you like to do the same? Please correct me if I've
made errors in my summing up of the flash warning itself.

On Jun 28, 4:30*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Tell you what Richard; let's monitor this one. The scope of the "flash
warning of severe or extreme weather" forecast is this.

The headline for every area south of the border with Scotland and
north of a line from the Thames to mid-Wales is "Heavy rain". Not the
possibility of heavy rain, but a straight "Heavy rain". The site user
then has to go to their area where this is seen;

"Slow moving thunderstorms will develop this afternoon giving
torrential downpours and hail, although some places will miss them and
stay dry. However, in areas affected, 20-40mm of rain is likely in 3
hours or less. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to
the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on
motorways and trunk roads".

Not "many" places will miss them, but "some" places will miss them and
stay dry. That clearly implies that most areas will get them. At
present, any user of the warnings site, living within the orange
coloured areas, would be expecting that they are likely to see heavy
rain, though they may miss out (not my use of the word "may"; that's
exactly what is implied by this warning).

There is no reference to the weather radar, which at 15.30 shows the
vast majority of the areas under the flash warning as dry, with a
probable N/S line of showers through East Yorkshire and Humberside
(light rain in Humberside C/O XC weather, some showers in the NW (XC
weather reported light rain at Blackpool airport at 1609) and a few
very isolated showers (OK possible, rain may not be reaching the
ground) over other areas. *Instead the user is directed to the
highways agency site (no link). Presently, the highways agency has no
mentio of heavy rain that I can find. There are more organised bands
of rain across the SW and S Wales; these are outside of the flash
warning area and probably rightly so. We've had a few drops in
Dawlish.

I'm sure these showers will break out in other areas and there are
lots of reports of Cbs, but let's see if most people in those areas
get heavy rain. A difficult one to monitor exactly, I know, but let's
have a go.

I hope this is one of the good forecasts and the evening should
cartainly see some very lively weather for some as we get
destabilisation across the flash warning area. I'll give my judgement
at outcome. Would you like to do the same? Please correct me if I've
made errors in my summing up of the flash warning itself.

1630 rainfall radar. Some more storms breaking out. One to the East of
Birmingham, but reports are only of light rain. Some in East Anglia,
some over Snowdonia, More in the NW. Heavy rain reported from some
storms in the NW and in East Yorkshire. Most areas under the flash
warning are presently dry, though there are reports of Cbs in some
areas.

Still the same areas subject to the flash warning. It is force until
2200. 5 hrs to go and those hours could produce some interesting
weather watching!

On Jun 28, 5:12*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 4:30*pm, Dawlish wrote:





Tell you what Richard; let's monitor this one. The scope of the "flash
warning of severe or extreme weather" forecast is this.

The headline for every area south of the border with Scotland and
north of a line from the Thames to mid-Wales is "Heavy rain". Not the
possibility of heavy rain, but a straight "Heavy rain". The site user
then has to go to their area where this is seen;

"Slow moving thunderstorms will develop this afternoon giving
torrential downpours and hail, although some places will miss them and
stay dry. However, in areas affected, 20-40mm of rain is likely in 3
hours or less. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to
the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on
motorways and trunk roads".

Not "many" places will miss them, but "some" places will miss them and
stay dry. That clearly implies that most areas will get them. At
present, any user of the warnings site, living within the orange
coloured areas, would be expecting that they are likely to see heavy
rain, though they may miss out (not my use of the word "may"; that's
exactly what is implied by this warning).

There is no reference to the weather radar, which at 15.30 shows the
vast majority of the areas under the flash warning as dry, with a
probable N/S line of showers through East Yorkshire and Humberside
(light rain in Humberside C/O XC weather, some showers in the NW (XC
weather reported light rain at Blackpool airport at 1609) and a few
very isolated showers (OK possible, rain may not be reaching the
ground) over other areas. *Instead the user is directed to the
highways agency site (no link). Presently, the highways agency has no
mentio of heavy rain that I can find. There are more organised bands
of rain across the SW and S Wales; these are outside of the flash
warning area and probably rightly so. We've had a few drops in
Dawlish.

I'm sure these showers will break out in other areas and there are
lots of reports of Cbs, but let's see if most people in those areas
get heavy rain. A difficult one to monitor exactly, I know, but let's
have a go.

I hope this is one of the good forecasts and the evening should
cartainly see some very lively weather for some as we get
destabilisation across the flash warning area. I'll give my judgement
at outcome. Would you like to do the same? Please correct me if I've
made errors in my summing up of the flash warning itself.

1630 rainfall radar. Some more storms breaking out. One to the East of
Birmingham, but reports are only of light rain. Some in East Anglia,
some over Snowdonia, More in the NW. Heavy rain reported from some
storms in the NW and in East Yorkshire. Most areas under the flash
warning are presently dry, though there are reports of Cbs in some
areas.

Still the same areas subject to the flash warning. It is force until
2200. 5 hrs to go and those hours could produce some interesting
weather watching!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1600 A larger area of storms over E.Anglia and one cell to the SW of
Birmingham. Storms over E. Yorkshire appear to be dying back and the
storms over Snowdonia and the NW are drifting slowly north. Storms
appear to be breaking out over SW Scotland which is not under the
flash warning area. Flash warning area remains the same.

Most areas have see no rain at all, so far. There is very little
electrical activity.

On Jun 28, 6:22*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 5:12*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jun 28, 4:30*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Tell you what Richard; let's monitor this one. The scope of the "flash
warning of severe or extreme weather" forecast is this.

The headline for every area south of the border with Scotland and
north of a line from the Thames to mid-Wales is "Heavy rain". Not the
possibility of heavy rain, but a straight "Heavy rain". The site user
then has to go to their area where this is seen;

"Slow moving thunderstorms will develop this afternoon giving
torrential downpours and hail, although some places will miss them and
stay dry. However, in areas affected, 20-40mm of rain is likely in 3
hours or less. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to
the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on
motorways and trunk roads".

Not "many" places will miss them, but "some" places will miss them and
stay dry. That clearly implies that most areas will get them. At
present, any user of the warnings site, living within the orange
coloured areas, would be expecting that they are likely to see heavy
rain, though they may miss out (not my use of the word "may"; that's
exactly what is implied by this warning).

There is no reference to the weather radar, which at 15.30 shows the
vast majority of the areas under the flash warning as dry, with a
probable N/S line of showers through East Yorkshire and Humberside
(light rain in Humberside C/O XC weather, some showers in the NW (XC
weather reported light rain at Blackpool airport at 1609) and a few
very isolated showers (OK possible, rain may not be reaching the
ground) over other areas. *Instead the user is directed to the
highways agency site (no link). Presently, the highways agency has no
mentio of heavy rain that I can find. There are more organised bands
of rain across the SW and S Wales; these are outside of the flash
warning area and probably rightly so. We've had a few drops in
Dawlish.

I'm sure these showers will break out in other areas and there are
lots of reports of Cbs, but let's see if most people in those areas
get heavy rain. A difficult one to monitor exactly, I know, but let's
have a go.

I hope this is one of the good forecasts and the evening should
cartainly see some very lively weather for some as we get
destabilisation across the flash warning area. I'll give my judgement
at outcome. Would you like to do the same? Please correct me if I've
made errors in my summing up of the flash warning itself.

1630 rainfall radar. Some more storms breaking out. One to the East of
Birmingham, but reports are only of light rain. Some in East Anglia,
some over Snowdonia, More in the NW. Heavy rain reported from some
storms in the NW and in East Yorkshire. Most areas under the flash
warning are presently dry, though there are reports of Cbs in some
areas.

Still the same areas subject to the flash warning. It is force until
2200. 5 hrs to go and those hours could produce some interesting
weather watching!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1600 A larger area of storms over E.Anglia and one cell to the SW of
Birmingham. Storms over E. Yorkshire appear to be dying back and the
storms over Snowdonia and the NW are drifting slowly north. Storms
appear to be breaking out over SW Scotland which is not under the
flash warning area. Flash warning area remains the same.

Most areas have see no rain at all, so far. There is very little
electrical activity.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1630

Areas of storms are now confined to 3 isolated areas; E.Anglia, where
one report has them as sharp storms with a lot of rainfall, but they
are concentrated in one area around the A47, SE of Birmingham, where
the cell appears to be dying and Cumbria. There is rain over SW
Scotland, but that is out of the Flash warning area. Almost all other
areas of England within the Flash warning area (which is still exactly
the same as it was, on the severe warnings site) are dry. The MetO
list of UK latest observations, though not comprehensive, does not
list a single site in the Flash warning area that was recieving
rainfall at 1800. Things could change in the next 4 hours and I won't
judge this forecast until tomorrow morning, when we can analyse
rainfall totals in more detail.

Richard; what's your view?

On Jun 28, 7:10*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 6:22*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jun 28, 5:12*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jun 28, 4:30*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Tell you what Richard; let's monitor this one. The scope of the "flash
warning of severe or extreme weather" forecast is this.

The headline for every area south of the border with Scotland and
north of a line from the Thames to mid-Wales is "Heavy rain". Not the
possibility of heavy rain, but a straight "Heavy rain". The site user
then has to go to their area where this is seen;

"Slow moving thunderstorms will develop this afternoon giving
torrential downpours and hail, although some places will miss them and
stay dry. However, in areas affected, 20-40mm of rain is likely in 3
hours or less. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to
the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on
motorways and trunk roads".

Not "many" places will miss them, but "some" places will miss them and
stay dry. That clearly implies that most areas will get them. At
present, any user of the warnings site, living within the orange
coloured areas, would be expecting that they are likely to see heavy
rain, though they may miss out (not my use of the word "may"; that's
exactly what is implied by this warning).

There is no reference to the weather radar, which at 15.30 shows the
vast majority of the areas under the flash warning as dry, with a
probable N/S line of showers through East Yorkshire and Humberside
(light rain in Humberside C/O XC weather, some showers in the NW (XC
weather reported light rain at Blackpool airport at 1609) and a few
very isolated showers (OK possible, rain may not be reaching the
ground) over other areas. *Instead the user is directed to the
highways agency site (no link). Presently, the highways agency has no
mentio of heavy rain that I can find. There are more organised bands
of rain across the SW and S Wales; these are outside of the flash
warning area and probably rightly so. We've had a few drops in
Dawlish.

I'm sure these showers will break out in other areas and there are
lots of reports of Cbs, but let's see if most people in those areas
get heavy rain. A difficult one to monitor exactly, I know, but let's
have a go.

I hope this is one of the good forecasts and the evening should
cartainly see some very lively weather for some as we get
destabilisation across the flash warning area. I'll give my judgement
at outcome. Would you like to do the same? Please correct me if I've
made errors in my summing up of the flash warning itself.

1630 rainfall radar. Some more storms breaking out. One to the East of
Birmingham, but reports are only of light rain. Some in East Anglia,
some over Snowdonia, More in the NW. Heavy rain reported from some
storms in the NW and in East Yorkshire. Most areas under the flash
warning are presently dry, though there are reports of Cbs in some
areas.

Still the same areas subject to the flash warning. It is force until
2200. 5 hrs to go and those hours could produce some interesting
weather watching!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1600 A larger area of storms over E.Anglia and one cell to the SW of
Birmingham. Storms over E. Yorkshire appear to be dying back and the
storms over Snowdonia and the NW are drifting slowly north. Storms
appear to be breaking out over SW Scotland which is not under the
flash warning area. Flash warning area remains the same.

Most areas have see no rain at all, so far. There is very little
electrical activity.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1630

Areas of storms are now confined to 3 isolated areas; E.Anglia, where
one report has them as sharp storms with a lot of rainfall, but they
are concentrated in one area around the A47, SE of Birmingham, where
the cell appears to be dying and Cumbria. There is rain over SW
Scotland, but that is out of the Flash warning area. Almost all other
areas of England within the Flash warning area (which is still exactly
the same as it was, on the severe warnings site) are dry. The MetO
list of UK latest observations, though not comprehensive, does not
list a single site in the Flash warning area that was recieving
rainfall at 1800. Things could change in the next 4 hours and I won't
judge this forecast until tomorrow morning, when we can analyse
rainfall totals in more detail.

Richard; what's your view?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

2030.

A few new cells around the East Midlands, but they are very localised.
Convective activity in all other areas is decreasing. Most areas are
dry. Most locations have had no rain whatsoever. The flash warning is
still there for all the initially identified areas for anyone logging
onto the warnings site.

had a few sharpish showers here in Plymton today

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jun 28, 7:10 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 6:22 pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jun 28, 5:12 pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jun 28, 4:30 pm, Dawlish wrote:

Tell you what Richard; let's monitor this one. The scope of the
"flash
warning of severe or extreme weather" forecast is this.

The headline for every area south of the border with Scotland and
north of a line from the Thames to mid-Wales is "Heavy rain". Not
the
possibility of heavy rain, but a straight "Heavy rain". The site
user
then has to go to their area where this is seen;

"Slow moving thunderstorms will develop this afternoon giving
torrential downpours and hail, although some places will miss them
and
stay dry. However, in areas affected, 20-40mm of rain is likely in
3
hours or less. The public are advised to take extra care and refer
to
the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on
motorways and trunk roads".

Not "many" places will miss them, but "some" places will miss them
and
stay dry. That clearly implies that most areas will get them. At
present, any user of the warnings site, living within the orange
coloured areas, would be expecting that they are likely to see
heavy
rain, though they may miss out (not my use of the word "may";
that's
exactly what is implied by this warning).

There is no reference to the weather radar, which at 15.30 shows
the
vast majority of the areas under the flash warning as dry, with a
probable N/S line of showers through East Yorkshire and Humberside
(light rain in Humberside C/O XC weather, some showers in the NW
(XC
weather reported light rain at Blackpool airport at 1609) and a few
very isolated showers (OK possible, rain may not be reaching the
ground) over other areas. Instead the user is directed to the
highways agency site (no link). Presently, the highways agency has
no
mentio of heavy rain that I can find. There are more organised
bands
of rain across the SW and S Wales; these are outside of the flash
warning area and probably rightly so. We've had a few drops in
Dawlish.

I'm sure these showers will break out in other areas and there are
lots of reports of Cbs, but let's see if most people in those areas
get heavy rain. A difficult one to monitor exactly, I know, but
let's
have a go.

I hope this is one of the good forecasts and the evening should
cartainly see some very lively weather for some as we get
destabilisation across the flash warning area. I'll give my
judgement
at outcome. Would you like to do the same? Please correct me if
I've
made errors in my summing up of the flash warning itself.

1630 rainfall radar. Some more storms breaking out. One to the East
of
Birmingham, but reports are only of light rain. Some in East Anglia,
some over Snowdonia, More in the NW. Heavy rain reported from some
storms in the NW and in East Yorkshire. Most areas under the flash
warning are presently dry, though there are reports of Cbs in some
areas.

Still the same areas subject to the flash warning. It is force until
2200. 5 hrs to go and those hours could produce some interesting
weather watching!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1600 A larger area of storms over E.Anglia and one cell to the SW of
Birmingham. Storms over E. Yorkshire appear to be dying back and the
storms over Snowdonia and the NW are drifting slowly north. Storms
appear to be breaking out over SW Scotland which is not under the
flash warning area. Flash warning area remains the same.

Most areas have see no rain at all, so far. There is very little
electrical activity.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1630

Areas of storms are now confined to 3 isolated areas; E.Anglia, where
one report has them as sharp storms with a lot of rainfall, but they
are concentrated in one area around the A47, SE of Birmingham, where
the cell appears to be dying and Cumbria. There is rain over SW
Scotland, but that is out of the Flash warning area. Almost all other
areas of England within the Flash warning area (which is still exactly
the same as it was, on the severe warnings site) are dry. The MetO
list of UK latest observations, though not comprehensive, does not
list a single site in the Flash warning area that was recieving
rainfall at 1800. Things could change in the next 4 hours and I won't
judge this forecast until tomorrow morning, when we can analyse
rainfall totals in more detail.

Richard; what's your view?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

2030.

A few new cells around the East Midlands, but they are very localised.
Convective activity in all other areas is decreasing. Most areas are
dry. Most locations have had no rain whatsoever. The flash warning is
still there for all the initially identified areas for anyone logging
onto the warnings site.

On Jun 28, 9:33*pm, "Stan" wrote:
had a few sharpish showers here in Plymton today

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...



On Jun 28, 7:10 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 6:22 pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jun 28, 5:12 pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jun 28, 4:30 pm, Dawlish wrote:

Tell you what Richard; let's monitor this one. The scope of the
"flash
warning of severe or extreme weather" forecast is this.

The headline for every area south of the border with Scotland and
north of a line from the Thames to mid-Wales is "Heavy rain". Not
the
possibility of heavy rain, but a straight "Heavy rain". The site
user
then has to go to their area where this is seen;

"Slow moving thunderstorms will develop this afternoon giving
torrential downpours and hail, although some places will miss them
and
stay dry. However, in areas affected, 20-40mm of rain is likely in
3
hours or less. The public are advised to take extra care and refer
to
the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on
motorways and trunk roads".

Not "many" places will miss them, but "some" places will miss them
and
stay dry. That clearly implies that most areas will get them. At
present, any user of the warnings site, living within the orange
coloured areas, would be expecting that they are likely to see
heavy
rain, though they may miss out (not my use of the word "may";
that's
exactly what is implied by this warning).

There is no reference to the weather radar, which at 15.30 shows
the
vast majority of the areas under the flash warning as dry, with a
probable N/S line of showers through East Yorkshire and Humberside
(light rain in Humberside C/O XC weather, some showers in the NW
(XC
weather reported light rain at Blackpool airport at 1609) and a few
very isolated showers (OK possible, rain may not be reaching the
ground) over other areas. *Instead the user is directed to the
highways agency site (no link). Presently, the highways agency has
no
mentio of heavy rain that I can find. There are more organised
bands
of rain across the SW and S Wales; these are outside of the flash
warning area and probably rightly so. We've had a few drops in
Dawlish.

I'm sure these showers will break out in other areas and there are
lots of reports of Cbs, but let's see if most people in those areas
get heavy rain. A difficult one to monitor exactly, I know, but
let's
have a go.

I hope this is one of the good forecasts and the evening should
cartainly see some very lively weather for some as we get
destabilisation across the flash warning area. I'll give my
judgement
at outcome. Would you like to do the same? Please correct me if
I've
made errors in my summing up of the flash warning itself.

1630 rainfall radar. Some more storms breaking out. One to the East
of
Birmingham, but reports are only of light rain. Some in East Anglia,
some over Snowdonia, More in the NW. Heavy rain reported from some
storms in the NW and in East Yorkshire. Most areas under the flash
warning are presently dry, though there are reports of Cbs in some
areas.

Still the same areas subject to the flash warning. It is force until
2200. 5 hrs to go and those hours could produce some interesting
weather watching!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1600 A larger area of storms over E.Anglia and one cell to the SW of
Birmingham. Storms over E. Yorkshire appear to be dying back and the
storms over Snowdonia and the NW are drifting slowly north. Storms
appear to be breaking out over SW Scotland which is not under the
flash warning area. Flash warning area remains the same.

Most areas have see no rain at all, so far. There is very little
electrical activity.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1630

Areas of storms are now confined to 3 isolated areas; E.Anglia, where
one report has them as sharp storms with a lot of rainfall, but they
are concentrated in one area around the A47, SE of Birmingham, where
the cell appears to be dying and Cumbria. There is rain over SW
Scotland, but that is out of the Flash warning area. Almost all other
areas of England within the Flash warning area (which is still exactly
the same as it was, on the severe warnings site) are dry. The MetO
list of UK latest observations, though not comprehensive, does not
list a single site in the Flash warning area that was recieving
rainfall at 1800. Things could change in the next 4 hours and I won't
judge this forecast until tomorrow morning, when we can analyse
rainfall totals in more detail.

Richard; what's your view?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

2030.

A few new cells around the East Midlands, but they are very localised.
Convective activity in all other areas is decreasing. Most areas are
dry. Most locations have had no rain whatsoever. The flash warning is
still there for all the initially identified areas for anyone logging
onto the warnings site.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

One or two areas have Stan.

On Jun 28, 9:50*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 9:33*pm, "Stan" wrote:





had a few sharpish showers here in Plymton today

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

On Jun 28, 7:10 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 6:22 pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jun 28, 5:12 pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jun 28, 4:30 pm, Dawlish wrote:

Tell you what Richard; let's monitor this one. The scope of the
"flash
warning of severe or extreme weather" forecast is this.

The headline for every area south of the border with Scotland and
north of a line from the Thames to mid-Wales is "Heavy rain". Not
the
possibility of heavy rain, but a straight "Heavy rain". The site
user
then has to go to their area where this is seen;

"Slow moving thunderstorms will develop this afternoon giving
torrential downpours and hail, although some places will miss them
and
stay dry. However, in areas affected, 20-40mm of rain is likely in
3
hours or less. The public are advised to take extra care and refer
to
the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on
motorways and trunk roads".

Not "many" places will miss them, but "some" places will miss them
and
stay dry. That clearly implies that most areas will get them. At
present, any user of the warnings site, living within the orange
coloured areas, would be expecting that they are likely to see
heavy
rain, though they may miss out (not my use of the word "may";
that's
exactly what is implied by this warning).

There is no reference to the weather radar, which at 15.30 shows
the
vast majority of the areas under the flash warning as dry, with a
probable N/S line of showers through East Yorkshire and Humberside
(light rain in Humberside C/O XC weather, some showers in the NW
(XC
weather reported light rain at Blackpool airport at 1609) and a few
very isolated showers (OK possible, rain may not be reaching the
ground) over other areas. *Instead the user is directed to the
highways agency site (no link). Presently, the highways agency has
no
mentio of heavy rain that I can find. There are more organised
bands
of rain across the SW and S Wales; these are outside of the flash
warning area and probably rightly so. We've had a few drops in
Dawlish.

I'm sure these showers will break out in other areas and there are
lots of reports of Cbs, but let's see if most people in those areas
get heavy rain. A difficult one to monitor exactly, I know, but
let's
have a go.

I hope this is one of the good forecasts and the evening should
cartainly see some very lively weather for some as we get
destabilisation across the flash warning area. I'll give my
judgement
at outcome. Would you like to do the same? Please correct me if
I've
made errors in my summing up of the flash warning itself.

1630 rainfall radar. Some more storms breaking out. One to the East
of
Birmingham, but reports are only of light rain. Some in East Anglia,
some over Snowdonia, More in the NW. Heavy rain reported from some
storms in the NW and in East Yorkshire. Most areas under the flash
warning are presently dry, though there are reports of Cbs in some
areas.

Still the same areas subject to the flash warning. It is force until
2200. 5 hrs to go and those hours could produce some interesting
weather watching!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1600 A larger area of storms over E.Anglia and one cell to the SW of
Birmingham. Storms over E. Yorkshire appear to be dying back and the
storms over Snowdonia and the NW are drifting slowly north. Storms
appear to be breaking out over SW Scotland which is not under the
flash warning area. Flash warning area remains the same.

Most areas have see no rain at all, so far. There is very little
electrical activity.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

1630

Areas of storms are now confined to 3 isolated areas; E.Anglia, where
one report has them as sharp storms with a lot of rainfall, but they
are concentrated in one area around the A47, SE of Birmingham, where
the cell appears to be dying and Cumbria. There is rain over SW
Scotland, but that is out of the Flash warning area. Almost all other
areas of England within the Flash warning area (which is still exactly
the same as it was, on the severe warnings site) are dry. The MetO
list of UK latest observations, though not comprehensive, does not
list a single site in the Flash warning area that was recieving
rainfall at 1800. Things could change in the next 4 hours and I won't
judge this forecast until tomorrow morning, when we can analyse
rainfall totals in more detail.

Richard; what's your view?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

2030.

A few new cells around the East Midlands, but they are very localised..
Convective activity in all other areas is decreasing. Most areas are
dry. Most locations have had no rain whatsoever. The flash warning is
still there for all the initially identified areas for anyone logging
onto the warnings site.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

One or two areas have Stan.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Just a few very localised cells left; very localised. Most areas
within the severe weather warning area dry.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...


I'm sure these showers will break out in other areas and there are
lots of reports of Cbs, but let's see if most people in those areas
get heavy rain. A difficult one to monitor exactly, I know, but let's
have a go.

http://www.edp24.co.uk/content/edp24...A23%3A25%3A210

"Homes across south and mid-Norfolk suffered flooding after torrential rain
today.

The fire service received around 20 calls to homes in New Buckenham, Old
Buckenham, Marlingford, Wymondham, Dereham, Tibenham and Thetford.

The worst flooding was in New Buckenham, near Attleborough, where homes in
King Street, Haugh Road, Castle Hill Road, Marsh Lane and Cake Street were
affected. Rain started in the late afternoon just as villagers were packing
away from their Open Gardens event, and continued for around four hours.

Fran Doe, who lives on King Street, had to bale water out of her back porch.
She said: "I was baling the water out with a dustpan, and now I have got to
get a load of towels out to soak the rest up. We had four fire units down
here for about two hours. The houses down the road opposite Rosemary Lane
have flooded again - they flood quite regularly. It was so sudden that
no-one realised it was going to happen."

Earlier today the Met Office issued a warning of slow-moving thunderstorms
bringing torrential downpours and hail, and said there could be 2-4cm of
rain (¾in to 1½ in) in a few hours in some areas."

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

Richard; what's your view?

Probably of the house over the road.

Richard has aptly described the difficulties of the current synoptic
situation and from previous discussions on here you should now be fully
aware of how the system the forecasters are working to functions.
Furthermore, it was made clear in the 08/09 PWS Annual report that the NSWWS
is to be reviewed again in this financial year - it's not going to happen
overnight and comments on here are unlikely to have any bearing on it.
Hence, I fail to see what you're trying to achieve on here, unless it's some
form of therapy.

One other thing, the MetO high resolution models (i.e. 4km and 1.5km) have,
*on occasion*, captured discreet convective scale events at lead times of
T+24 or greater in recent weeks - but you'll have to trust me on that one.

Jon.