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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Those amongst us who have doubts about the causes of global warming might
like this forecast as it is based on temperature cycles - then again, they probably won't. I've based this on a 7-8-year cycle that's been occurring recently and the assumption that the overall trend will remain similar to the past forty years. I know this is the point that could cause some problems with the anti-AGW crew but I've also looked at longer-term cycles and these also show that global temperatures should have started to rise this century and should continue to do so for the next 30-40 years. Of course, removing these long- term cycles from the record also shows that global temperatures have been rising steadily for the past 80 years or so. Caused by CO2, I wonder? Anyway, the cycle suggests a peak global anomaly over the 1951-80 normals in 2012/13 of about 0.8C - about 0.2 above the previous highest peak in 2005 - and 0.95C at about 2019. I'll try to remember to produce a verification of this forecast in 2020 - assuming I'm still able to do so. -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy "I wear the cheese. It does not wear me." |
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