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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#21
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On Aug 15, 11:38*pm, "JCW" wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message ... On Aug 15, 7:16 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message .... On Aug 15, 2:57 pm, "JCW" wrote: Well, this is getting entertaining....the thread that is! Never heard that expression about the bottom ofthe stairs but I'm sure it's a step in the right direction.... :-) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png Time-frames are somewhat different but it's there's similarities! Very active depressions close to or over British Isles. If this is a trend developing I wouldn't welcome it despite the excitement of "weather"! Looking very unsettled and windy. It feels like an early start to Autumn and today, when the sun went in, I thought I felt a distinct coolness in the air.... (That was probably the wife though 'cause I was on the razz last night and hosted a BBQ but didn't do much of the tidying up!) Another few runs and I'll be paying particular interest to the end of August period. Joe __________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4338 (20090815) __________ The message was checked by ESET Smart Security. * * part000.txt - is OK http://www.eset.com You are right about flagging this up Joe and I'm thinking along the same lines after the last few runs. Things could get stormy! |
#22
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"Dawlish" wrote in message
... You are right about flagging this up Joe and I'm thinking along the same lines after the last few runs. Things could get stormy! Paul, signals still there for something down the pipeline: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif (Aug 26th 00z : 950mb low half-way between New Foundland and Ireland) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png Aug 26th 18z: 960mb low south of Iceland and west of Ireland. At 06z the GFS doesn't have anything so potent as the ECM with a 975mb depression only deepening as it approaches the W/NW of Ireland) These are changes in location & strength of the depressions, as one would be expect at that range, but the fact the runs continue to signal some very active systems in and around that timeframe keeps the interest. Alastair, I don't envy your better-half flying anywhere in conditions like this but IF the storm comes about, AND the track holds true further to the W and N, then Southampton looks relatively(!) okay! I know it's way too far off at T+240 or T+252 but.... ;-) Joe __________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________ The message was checked by ESET Smart Security. part000.txt - is OK http://www.eset.com |
#23
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On Aug 16, 1:59*pm, "JCW" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... You are right about flagging this up Joe and I'm thinking along the same lines after the last few runs. Things could get stormy! Paul, signals still there for something down the pipeline: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif (Aug 26th 00z : 950mb low half-way between New Foundland and Ireland) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png Aug 26th 18z: 960mb low south of Iceland and west of Ireland. At 06z the GFS doesn't have anything so potent as the ECM with a 975mb depression only deepening as it approaches the W/NW of Ireland) These are changes in location & strength of the depressions, as one would be expect at that range, but the fact the runs continue to signal some very active systems in and around that timeframe keeps the interest. Alastair, I don't envy your better-half flying anywhere in conditions like this but IF the storm comes about, AND the track holds true further to the W and N, then Southampton looks relatively(!) okay! I know it's way too far off at T+240 or T+252 but.... * ;-) Joe __________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________ The message was checked by ESET Smart Security. * * part000.txt - is OK http://www.eset.com There's nothing wrong with keeping an eye out at T240. Consistency at that distance between runs from one model can be an excellent aid to forecasting. The depression is now shown to veer NE, past the North of Scotland, so the consistency isn't there. ECM shows the same dartboard low in a similar place though. I feel that the overall suggestion from this is for a much more unsettled regime to develop in the Atlantic into the last week of August, but I wouldn't bet on it really affecting the UK yet. Both Major models are still showing a NW/SE split in what are, basically, zonal conditions and they show some decent weather for England, especially for the SE of England, much of the time. |
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