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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#11
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Alastair wrote:
By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-) Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now. The only 'real' holiday I've been able to take this year is booked for early September and I want hot, hot, hot, more hot; sun, sun, sun and more sun. Definitely no nasty wind (had enough of that in July), no nasty rain (had enough of that in July), no nasty cold temperatures (had enough of that in July). I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still warm. ________________ Nick. Otter Valley, Devon 83 m amsl http://www.ottervalley.co.uk |
#12
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"Nick Gardner" wrote in message
... Alastair wrote: By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-) Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now. I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still warm. ________________ Nick. Nick, someone is looking after you.... ;-) http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-336.png?12 Joe __________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________ The message was checked by ESET Smart Security. part000.txt - is OK http://www.eset.com |
#13
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On Aug 16, 6:00*pm, "Nick Gardner"
wrote: Alastair wrote: By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-) Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now. +1... There's plenty of time for that in Oct, Nov, Dec. Preferably not Jan or Feb though, it would rather spoil the chance of snow :-) The only 'real' holiday I've been able to take this year is booked for early September and I want hot, hot, hot, more hot; sun, sun, sun and more sun. Similar for me, the last time I can take holiday off during the week is likely to be Aug 24-28 (though mid Sep is possible) and I'm hoping there'll be at least a few passably good days (e.g. like today). Some of the runs are sending the ex-hurricanes further north so you never know.... Nick |
#14
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On Aug 16, 6:00*pm, "Nick Gardner"
wrote: Alastair wrote: By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-) Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now. The only 'real' holiday I've been able to take this year is booked for early September and I want hot, hot, hot, more hot; sun, sun, sun and more sun. Definitely no nasty wind (had enough of that in July), no nasty rain (had enough of that in July), no nasty cold temperatures (had enough of that in July). I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still warm. ________________ Nick. Otter Valley, Devon 83 m amslhttp://www.ottervalley.co.uk Heh! How about this chart for Sept 1st Nick? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.png |
#15
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On Aug 16, 6:05*pm, "JCW" wrote:
"Nick Gardner" wrote in message ... Alastair wrote: By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-) Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now. I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still warm. ________________ Nick. Nick, someone is looking after you.... ;-) http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-336.png?12 Joe __________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________ The message was checked by ESET Smart Security. * * part000.txt - is OK http://www.eset.com Looks like the Indian summer is going to be vindahloo weather :-) Cheers, Alastair. |
#16
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On Aug 16, 10:51*pm, Alastair wrote:
On Aug 16, 6:05*pm, "JCW" wrote: "Nick Gardner" wrote in message ... Alastair wrote: By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-) Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now. I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still warm. ________________ Nick. Nick, someone is looking after you.... ;-) http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-336.png?12 Joe __________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________ The message was checked by ESET Smart Security. * * part000.txt - is OK http://www.eset.com Looks like the Indian summer is going to be vindahloo weather :-) Cheers, Alastair.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Oh! There's a thing! Would you believe it, campers.....it's gone! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png *)) |
#17
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On Aug 17, 8:16*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 16, 10:51*pm, Alastair wrote: On Aug 16, 6:05*pm, "JCW" wrote: "Nick Gardner" wrote in message ... Alastair wrote: By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-) Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now. I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still warm. ________________ Nick. Nick, someone is looking after you.... ;-) http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-336.png?12 Joe __________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________ The message was checked by ESET Smart Security. * * part000.txt - is OK http://www.eset.com Looks like the Indian summer is going to be vindahloo weather :-) Cheers, Alastair.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Oh! There's a thing! Would you believe it, campers.....it's gone! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png *))- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Have you taken a gander at the ECM T240 this morning? Sorry Nick, but this beastie is beginning to rise up the likelihood tables. There could well be some interesting weather coming up in that last week of August! http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...test!chart.gif Coo! |
#18
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On Aug 17, 9:36*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 17, 8:16*am, Dawlish wrote: On Aug 16, 10:51*pm, Alastair wrote: On Aug 16, 6:05*pm, "JCW" wrote: "Nick Gardner" wrote in message ... Alastair wrote: By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-) Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now. I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still warm. ________________ Nick. Nick, someone is looking after you.... ;-) http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-336.png?12 Joe __________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________ The message was checked by ESET Smart Security. * * part000.txt - is OK http://www.eset.com Looks like the Indian summer is going to be vindahloo weather :-) Cheers, Alastair.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Oh! There's a thing! Would you believe it, campers.....it's gone! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png *))- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Have you taken a gander at the ECM T240 this morning? Sorry Nick, but this beastie is beginning to rise up the likelihood tables. There could well be some interesting weather coming up in that last week of August! http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...log/products/f... Coo! Yes, the GFS has also had something similar on the same day, 27th Aug. |
#19
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"Richard Dixon" wrote :
On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" wrote: The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you well know...), : LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model : consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I : realise it's an enormous minefield. : : But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked : beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !! : But of course ... Perhaps we've all been waiting too long ... I note that Ana's upgrading to TS status was the latest since 1992 (that was Andrew!), although Bill's hurricane status is the latest only for three years. And this after the latest start to the hurricane season on the Pacific side of Central/North America since 1969. Dates of first Atlantic/Caribbean TS: 2009 15 Aug 2008 31 May 2007 1 Jun 2006 11 Jun 2005 8 Jun 2004 1 Aug 2003 29 Jun 2002 15 Jul 2001 4 Jul 2000 4 Aug .... 1992 17 Aug 1977 29 Aug 1967 30 Aug ... latest since 1950 Philip |
#20
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On 17 Aug, 13:29, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote : On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" wrote: The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you well know...), : *LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model : *consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I : *realise it's an enormous minefield. : : *But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked : *beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !! : But of course ... Perhaps we've all been waiting too long ... I note that Ana's upgrading to TS status was the latest since 1992 (that was Andrew!), although Bill's hurricane status is the latest only for three years. And this after the latest start to the hurricane season on the Pacific side of Central/North America since 1969. Dates of first Atlantic/Caribbean TS: 2009 *15 Aug 2008 *31 May 2007 *1 Jun 2006 *11 Jun 2005 *8 Jun 2004 *1 Aug 2003 *29 Jun 2002 *15 Jul 2001 *4 Jul 2000 *4 Aug ... 1992 *17 Aug 1977 *29 Aug 1967 *30 Aug ... latest since 1950 And if you look at the records of "first hurricane" prior to 1950, you can see the marked probable influence of the satellite era with a number of pseudo-late seasons before the 1950s with the obvious lack of observational data. Going back to your original comment - all the models are currently pointing to Bill recurving and the further south landfall somewhere close to Nova Scotia. Looks like the steering high is a large enough feature to be quite well forecast giving good guidance on the track of Bill - not like one of these meandering hurricanes that wobble through the Caribbean without a strong large-scale guiding influence. Richard |
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