Alastair wrote:
By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-)

Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now.

The only 'real' holiday I've been able to take this year is booked for early
September and I want hot, hot, hot, more hot; sun, sun, sun and more sun.
Definitely no nasty wind (had enough of that in July), no nasty rain (had
enough of that in July), no nasty cold temperatures (had enough of that in
July).

I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can
get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still warm.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

"Nick Gardner" wrote in message
...
Alastair wrote:
By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-)

Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now.


I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can
get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still
warm.
________________
Nick.
Nick, someone is looking after you.... ;-)

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-336.png?12

Joe



__________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________

The message was checked by ESET Smart Security.

part000.txt - is OK

http://www.eset.com

On Aug 16, 6:00*pm, "Nick Gardner"
wrote:
Alastair wrote:
By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-)

Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now.

+1...

There's plenty of time for that in Oct, Nov, Dec. Preferably not Jan
or Feb though, it would rather spoil the chance of snow :-)

The only 'real' holiday I've been able to take this year is booked for early
September and I want hot, hot, hot, more hot; sun, sun, sun and more sun.

Similar for me, the last time I can take holiday off during the week
is likely to be Aug 24-28 (though mid Sep is possible) and I'm hoping
there'll be at least a few passably good days (e.g. like today). Some
of the runs are sending the ex-hurricanes further north so you never
know....

Nick

On Aug 16, 6:00*pm, "Nick Gardner"
wrote:
Alastair wrote:
By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-)

Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now.

The only 'real' holiday I've been able to take this year is booked for early
September and I want hot, hot, hot, more hot; sun, sun, sun and more sun.
Definitely no nasty wind (had enough of that in July), no nasty rain (had
enough of that in July), no nasty cold temperatures (had enough of that in
July).

I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can
get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still warm.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amslhttp://www.ottervalley.co.uk

Heh! How about this chart for Sept 1st Nick?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.png

On Aug 16, 6:05*pm, "JCW" wrote:
"Nick Gardner" wrote in message

... Alastair wrote:
By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-)

Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now.

I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can
get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still
warm.
________________
Nick.

Nick, someone is looking after you.... ;-)

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-336.png?12

Joe

__________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________

The message was checked by ESET Smart Security.

* * part000.txt - is OK

http://www.eset.com

Looks like the Indian summer is going to be vindahloo weather :-)

Cheers, Alastair.

On Aug 16, 10:51*pm, Alastair wrote:
On Aug 16, 6:05*pm, "JCW" wrote:





"Nick Gardner" wrote in message

... Alastair wrote:
By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-)

Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now.

I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can
get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still
warm.
________________
Nick.

Nick, someone is looking after you.... ;-)

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-336.png?12

Joe

__________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________

The message was checked by ESET Smart Security.

* * part000.txt - is OK

http://www.eset.com

Looks like the Indian summer is going to be vindahloo weather :-)

Cheers, Alastair.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Oh! There's a thing! Would you believe it, campers.....it's gone!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

*))

On Aug 17, 8:16*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 16, 10:51*pm, Alastair wrote:





On Aug 16, 6:05*pm, "JCW" wrote:

"Nick Gardner" wrote in message

... Alastair wrote:
By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-)

Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now.

I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can
get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still
warm.
________________
Nick.

Nick, someone is looking after you.... ;-)

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-336.png?12

Joe

__________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________

The message was checked by ESET Smart Security.

* * part000.txt - is OK

http://www.eset.com

Looks like the Indian summer is going to be vindahloo weather :-)

Cheers, Alastair.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Oh! There's a thing! Would you believe it, campers.....it's gone!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

*))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Have you taken a gander at the ECM T240 this morning? Sorry Nick, but
this beastie is beginning to rise up the likelihood tables. There
could well be some interesting weather coming up in that last week of
August!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...test!chart.gif

Coo!

On Aug 17, 9:36*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 17, 8:16*am, Dawlish wrote:



On Aug 16, 10:51*pm, Alastair wrote:

On Aug 16, 6:05*pm, "JCW" wrote:

"Nick Gardner" wrote in message

... Alastair wrote:
By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-)

Look, whoever is talking up something stormy, stop it now.

I may only be visiting Ar'gate but I still want something decent so I can
get down the beach and get in lots of swimming whilst the sea's still
warm.
________________
Nick.

Nick, someone is looking after you.... ;-)

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-336.png?12

Joe

__________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________

The message was checked by ESET Smart Security.

* * part000.txt - is OK

http://www.eset.com

Looks like the Indian summer is going to be vindahloo weather :-)

Cheers, Alastair.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Oh! There's a thing! Would you believe it, campers.....it's gone!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

*))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Have you taken a gander at the ECM T240 this morning? Sorry Nick, but
this beastie is beginning to rise up the likelihood tables. There
could well be some interesting weather coming up in that last week of
August!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...log/products/f...

Coo!

Yes, the GFS has also had something similar on the same day, 27th Aug.

"Richard Dixon" wrote :
On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" wrote:

The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you
well know...),

: LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model
: consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I
: realise it's an enormous minefield.
:
: But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked
: beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !!
:
But of course ...
Perhaps we've all been waiting too long ... I note that Ana's
upgrading to TS status was the latest since 1992 (that was
Andrew!), although Bill's hurricane status is the latest only
for three years. And this after the latest start to the hurricane
season on the Pacific side of Central/North America since
1969.

Dates of first Atlantic/Caribbean TS:
2009 15 Aug
2008 31 May
2007 1 Jun
2006 11 Jun
2005 8 Jun
2004 1 Aug
2003 29 Jun
2002 15 Jul
2001 4 Jul
2000 4 Aug
....
1992 17 Aug
1977 29 Aug
1967 30 Aug ... latest since 1950

Philip

On 17 Aug, 13:29, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote :
On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" wrote:

The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you
well know...),

: *LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model
: *consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I
: *realise it's an enormous minefield.
:
: *But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked
: *beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !!
:
But of course ...
Perhaps we've all been waiting too long ... I note that Ana's
upgrading to TS status was the latest since 1992 (that was
Andrew!), although Bill's hurricane status is the latest only
for three years. And this after the latest start to the hurricane
season on the Pacific side of Central/North America since
1969.

Dates of first Atlantic/Caribbean TS:
2009 *15 Aug
2008 *31 May
2007 *1 Jun
2006 *11 Jun
2005 *8 Jun
2004 *1 Aug
2003 *29 Jun
2002 *15 Jul
2001 *4 Jul
2000 *4 Aug
...
1992 *17 Aug
1977 *29 Aug
1967 *30 Aug ... latest since 1950

And if you look at the records of "first hurricane" prior to 1950, you
can see the marked probable influence of the satellite era with a
number of pseudo-late seasons before the 1950s with the obvious lack
of observational data.

Going back to your original comment - all the models are currently
pointing to Bill recurving and the further south landfall somewhere
close to Nova Scotia. Looks like the steering high is a large enough
feature to be quite well forecast giving good guidance on the track of
Bill - not like one of these meandering hurricanes that wobble through
the Caribbean without a strong large-scale guiding influence.

Richard