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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#31
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On 19 Aug, 16:30, sutartsorric wrote:
I'd say it's because there's a very large, resolvable, forecastable high pressure around which Bill is moving. Given the relative size of the hurricane and the guiding high pressure, it's almost like Bill is a passive tracer in the grand scheme of things. Richard I would say it is because of the improved model resolution. Grid points 150km apart could hardly resolve a hurricane properly however large the anticyclone. I personally you don't need to resolve the hurricane to be able to forecast its track. The changes in the global models (from, say 200km to about 50km) in the last 10 years are well below the scale of the anticyclone. Richard |
#32
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On Aug 19, 6:40*pm, Richard Dixon wrote:
On 19 Aug, 16:30, sutartsorric wrote: I'd say it's because there's a very large, resolvable, forecastable high pressure around which Bill is moving. Given the relative size of the hurricane and the guiding high pressure, it's almost like Bill is a passive tracer in the grand scheme of things. Richard I would say it is because of the improved model resolution. Grid points 150km apart could hardly resolve a hurricane properly however large the anticyclone. I personally you don't need to resolve the hurricane to be able to forecast its track. The changes in the global models (from, say 200km to about 50km) in the last 10 years are well below the scale of the anticyclone. Richard Well I think you do have to resolve it, So shall we agree to differ? The way I see it, if you cant resolve a hurricane in a 150km x 150km grid square, how can you move it around the globe? Stuart |
#33
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On 19 Aug, 19:03, sutartsorric wrote:
So shall we agree to differ? Indeed. The way I see it, if you cant resolve a hurricane in a 150km x 150km grid square, how can you move it around the globe? They're not resolved in full detail but the pressure min / vorticity max are there enough to be trackable at low resolution - however if anyone's using global model output to try and work out the intensity, they're on a hiding to nothing !! I recall seeing a talk a few years ago about ways of diagnosing tropical systems in coarse climate model output. Richard |
#34
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"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
... On 19 Aug, 19:03, sutartsorric wrote: The way I see it, if you cant resolve a hurricane in a 150km x 150km grid square, how can you move it around the globe? They're not resolved in full detail but the pressure min / vorticity max are there enough to be trackable at low resolution however if anyone's using global model output to try and work out the intensity, they're on a hiding to nothing !! Hence the process of bogusing the existing storm data into the global models http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?...a1cfe593954c6c Jon |
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