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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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Thought I'd point out how similar the T+240 charts are for the GFS and
the ECMWF at 06Z / 00Z respectively, regarding Hurricane Bill. Both have Bill flirting dangerously with the eastern seaboard of Canada before weakening and then explosively developing in the westerlies in the mid-atlantic as it recurves out to sea. ECMWF 945mb, GFS 960mb. Richard |
#2
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"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
... Thought I'd point out how similar the T+240 charts are for the GFS and the ECMWF at 06Z / 00Z respectively, regarding Hurricane Bill. Both have Bill flirting dangerously with the eastern seaboard of Canada before weakening and then explosively developing in the westerlies in the mid-atlantic as it recurves out to sea. ECMWF 945mb, GFS 960mb. Richard Yes, Richard, it's one to watch. I see on the Accuweather site that there is a run of systems now coming off Africa and giving rise to more Tropical development. It could be quite an action-filled couple of weeks coming up over the pond...and then possibly closer to home. http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-...09-08-16_09:58 Joe __________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________ The message was checked by ESET Smart Security. part000.txt - is OK http://www.eset.com |
#3
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On 16 Aug, 14:22, "JCW" wrote:
I see on the Accuweather site that there is a run of systems now coming off Africa and giving rise to more Tropical development. It could be quite an action-filled couple of weeks coming up over the pond...and then possibly closer to home. Potentially a moment of deja vu to come... http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...RLEY/track.gif Richard |
#4
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Potentially a moment of deja vu to come...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...RLEY/track.gif or Faith in 1966 clean 5 ft waves at Porthminster, St Ives Porthmeor closed out at 12-15ft!!!! JT ex surf bum |
#5
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"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
... On 16 Aug, 14:22, "JCW" wrote: Potentially a moment of deja vu to come... http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...RLEY/track.gif Richard Now that I remember!!! Some bad flooding in Dublin and surround. The heaviest rain fell on the mountains south of Dublin where 280mm was recorded at Kippure (750m). 200mm recorded at lowland station in Kilcoole, south of Greystones, Co. Wicklow. It went down as being the worst flooding in Dublin since 1880. I live near Bray in Co. Wicklow and there was a lot of damage resulting from the floods with over 1000 people evacuated from their homes. I've retrieved much of this information from a Met Eireann weather bulletin from the month of August 1986. One remark they made was that the storm was of a severity that would be expected once every 100 years!!! Joe __________ Information from ESET Smart Security, version of virus signature database 4339 (20090816) __________ The message was checked by ESET Smart Security. part000.txt - is OK http://www.eset.com |
#6
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"Richard Dixon" wrote:
Thought I'd point out how similar the T+240 charts are for the GFS and the ECMWF at 06Z / 00Z respectively, regarding Hurricane Bill. Both have Bill flirting dangerously with the eastern seaboard of Canada before weakening and then explosively developing in the westerlies in the mid-atlantic as it recurves out to sea. ECMWF 945mb, GFS 960mb. Naughty Richard! The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you well know...), and the outcome can vary from deep depressions heading north across Quebec and Baffin Island triggering long-lasting blocking in the northern Atlantic, to curious creatures sliding sluggishly into Portugal or Biscay. Even these days, models fail to handle them with any sort of consistency even at 72h range (c.f. Gordon, September 2006). Philip |
#7
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On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
Naughty Richard! *The treatment of recurving TCs is *notoriously difficult (as you well know...), LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I realise it's an enormous minefield. But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !! Richard |
#8
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![]() "Richard Dixon" wrote in message ... On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote: Naughty Richard! The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you well know...), LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I realise it's an enormous minefield. But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !! Richard === Of course he has Richard, any great meteorologist does! I'm literally drooling at the prospect of an "interesting Atlantic spell", Philip is correct though as one outcome (low probability) may be to develop a socking big high over UK due to low PV air being thrust north to west of UK and we all have a "barbecue" technical term spell of weather! Now where was that phone number of my local roofer and where the 'eck did I put my house insurance document :-) "In my youth", sheesh you're still under 40 man, that's y o u n g! Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) -- |
#9
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On Aug 16, 5:17*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message ... On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote: Naughty Richard! The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you well know...), LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I realise it's an enormous minefield. But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !! Richard === Of course he has Richard, any great meteorologist does! I'm literally drooling at the prospect of an "interesting Atlantic spell", Philip is correct though as one outcome (low probability) may be to develop a socking big high over UK due to low PV air being thrust north to west of UK and we all have a "barbecue" technical term spell of weather! Now where was that phone number of my local roofer and where the 'eck did I put my house insurance document :-) "In my youth", sheesh you're still under 40 man, that's y o u n g! Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) -- By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-) Cheers, Alastair. |
#10
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On 16 Aug, 14:39, "JT" wrote:
Potentially a moment of deja vu to come... http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...RLEY/track.gif or Faith in 1966 clean 5 ft waves at Porthminster, St Ives Porthmeor closed out at 12-15ft!!!! JT ex surf bum Yes, could be some huge surf, possibly clean on the north coast too as long as the low stays well to the west. Not exactly ideal surfing, but have you seen these pics? www.sennen-cove.com/10march08.htm Biggest sea I've seen at Sennen, and I lived there several years. Graham Penzance |
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