On Aug 27, 9:42*am, Nick wrote:
On Aug 27, 8:06*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Aug 25, 5:35*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Personally, I'd rather see this Bank Holiday during the last week of
July, or in first 2 weeks of August, like the sensible Scots do, but
as we're stuck with it very late in the summer in England, a thread
for the possible weather seems reasonable.

Presently gfs 12z says "plume" on the Monday, with the possibility of
some warm temperatures in the SE and even warmer weather to come for
the start of September, as some hot air floods in from the continent.
Looks dry too.

ECM painting a not-too dissimilar picture, with high pressure over the
South of the UK and a plume to follow on Tuesday, as the anticyclone
heads east by the next day.

If you live north of the border, it won't worry you too much, as
you'll probably be at work! 8-).

To me, the whole thing looks precarious, but give it another couple of
gfs runs and an ECM to support and I might begin to believe we're in
for a good one! There's just not been enough consistency for a
confident forecast, even at only 7 days.

It looks like many could be in for a good one! It looks like a good
weekend too for the majority - at least the majority measured by
population. Western areas will probably get unlucky with some light
rain from trailing fronts over the weekend, from time to time, but
monday itself looks peachy and plumey in the SE with 27/28C in some
favoured areas of the SE and a sticky night, or two. Many areas of
England look like they'll be warm and sunny for the Monday itself. It
might have been a big outlier on the ensembles 2 days ago, but
persistence is such a big factor and the plume has stayed, with the
ECM coming round to what the gfs was showing 2 days ago.

Are you sure about Monday? ECM seems to say yes but GFS no.

Woohoo! Basically. BBQ time for the last hurrah of the
summer.........with luck.

It won't last, unfortunately and the first week in September looks
very unsettled and potentially stormy!

But there seem to be signs of an improvement again for the first
weekend (GFS 18Z and 00Z, ECM 12Z), which is when arguably when it
really matters as I guess most will be back in work on Sep 1st.

The 1st-4th stormy spell could give rain to places like East Anglia,
Belgium and the Netherlands, which must be the first significant rain
in these areas for a good few weeks.

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Could be Nick, but that's very much a gfs scenario. the ECM continues
the unsettled theme right through that weekend.