Charts that would have been very nice in July! (but will be very
welcome in 10 days time too!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Some nice September weather possibly on the cards, starting in the
second week of Sept. Both the gfs and the ECM are in agreement. I
won't take much more persuading that it is likely to happen.

On Aug 30, 9:22*am, Dawlish wrote:
Charts that would have been very nice in July! (but will be very
welcome in 10 days time too!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Some nice September weather possibly on the cards, starting in the
second week of Sept. Both the gfs and the ECM are in agreement. I
won't take much more persuading that it is likely to happen.

Met Office suggesting settled conditions for that week, but for the
south only. I guess there's some disagreement how far north the high
will get: the MetO would appear to favour a continuation of the
current WSW spell, anticyclonic in the south - which would normally be
absolutely fine if only it wasn't for that damned cold pool of water
in the Atlantic!

Nick

On Aug 30, 9:58*am, Nick wrote:
On Aug 30, 9:22*am, Dawlish wrote:

Charts that would have been very nice in July! (but will be very
welcome in 10 days time too!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Some nice September weather possibly on the cards, starting in the
second week of Sept. Both the gfs and the ECM are in agreement. I
won't take much more persuading that it is likely to happen.

Met Office suggesting settled conditions for that week, but for the
south only. I guess there's some disagreement how far north the high
will get: the MetO would appear to favour a continuation of the
current WSW spell, anticyclonic in the south - which would normally be
absolutely fine if only it wasn't for that damned cold pool of water
in the Atlantic!

Nick

Hi Nick,

Your point about the south's weather likely to be better than the
north's is a good one. The MetO's present summary shows that, but is
actually is very ambiguous about next week in the south:

"UK Outlook for Friday 4 Sep 2009 to Sunday 13 Sep 2009:
Sunshine and showers on Friday, and perhaps longer periods of rain in
the north and east. Showers ease in the south with many parts dry on
Saturday, but remaining unsettled in the north. Windy at first across
the UK, especially in the north, but winds ease in England and Wales
during the day. **Likely to be less unsettled in the south of the UK
for a time, with more in the way of drier, brighter weather but still
with a chance of showers or rain, especially later in the period**.
The north likely to stay unsettled with rain and strong winds at
times. Temperatures below normal at first, with some cool nights
expected, but recovering to around normal by the end of the period,
**possibly becoming warm in the southeast**.

Updated: 1256 on Sun 30 Aug 2009"

Mind you, actually trying to tease out any detail from this is very
difficult. This is a forecast for a 10-day inclusive period, squeezed
into 120 words! Instead of doing the crossword, I reckon the
forecasters have fun with the skill of precis in their tea breaks
*)). Its brevity shows that it is not given any real importance and
the MetO never returns to this forecast to attempt any judgement of
its accuracy. They know the difficulties of forecasting at any
distance above 5-7 days.

There's enough consistency in the gfs and enough agreement with the
ECM, for me to forecast, with 75% confidence, dry and settled
conditions over the south of the UK in 10 days time, at T240. Temps
will be above the September daytime average. The NW won't be faring as
well and will be plagued by fronts, giving much more unsettled
conditions.

I reckon next week could be a good one for a short break on the south
coast. Still "coulds". Nothing certain, but gamble on these forecasts
and I promise you that you'll come out winning significantly more
times than you lose!

On Aug 31, 9:19*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 30, 9:58*am, Nick wrote:





On Aug 30, 9:22*am, Dawlish wrote:

Charts that would have been very nice in July! (but will be very
welcome in 10 days time too!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Some nice September weather possibly on the cards, starting in the
second week of Sept. Both the gfs and the ECM are in agreement. I
won't take much more persuading that it is likely to happen.

Met Office suggesting settled conditions for that week, but for the
south only. I guess there's some disagreement how far north the high
will get: the MetO would appear to favour a continuation of the
current WSW spell, anticyclonic in the south - which would normally be
absolutely fine if only it wasn't for that damned cold pool of water
in the Atlantic!

Nick

Hi Nick,

Your point about the south's weather likely to be better than the
north's is a good one. The MetO's present summary shows that, but is
actually is very ambiguous about next week in the south:

"UK Outlook for Friday 4 Sep 2009 to Sunday 13 Sep 2009:
Sunshine and showers on Friday, and perhaps longer periods of rain in
the north and east. Showers ease in the south with many parts dry on
Saturday, but remaining unsettled in the north. Windy at first across
the UK, especially in the north, but winds ease in England and Wales
during the day. **Likely to be less unsettled in the south of the UK
for a time, with more in the way of drier, brighter weather but still
with a chance of showers or rain, especially later in the period**.
The north likely to stay unsettled with rain and strong winds at
times. Temperatures below normal at first, with some cool nights
expected, but recovering to around normal by the end of the period,
**possibly becoming warm in the southeast**.

Updated: 1256 on Sun 30 Aug 2009"

Mind you, actually trying to tease out any detail from this is very
difficult. This is a forecast for a 10-day inclusive period, squeezed
into 120 words! Instead of doing the crossword, I reckon the
forecasters have fun with the skill of precis in their tea breaks
*)). Its brevity shows that it is not given any real importance and
the MetO never returns to this forecast to attempt any judgement of
its accuracy. They know the difficulties of forecasting at any
distance above 5-7 days.

There's enough consistency in the gfs and enough agreement with the
ECM, for me to forecast, with 75% confidence, dry and settled
conditions over the south of the UK in 10 days time, at T240. Temps
will be above the September daytime average. The NW won't be faring as
well and will be plagued by fronts, giving much more unsettled
conditions.

I reckon next week could be a good one for a short break on the south
coast. Still "coulds". Nothing certain, but gamble on these forecasts
and I promise you that you'll come out winning significantly more
times than you lose!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

36 hours on and still looking good for a settled and warmer period of
weather next week, for England, at least. Good agreement between the
ECM and gfs. The MetO are coming round to the idea, but won't fully
commit themselves on today's 6-15 day update. I don't really blame
them. It's very easy to make mistakes forecasting at 10 days.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

On Tue, 1 Sep 2009 at 12:25:43, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

36 hours on and still looking good for a settled and warmer period of
weather next week, for England, at least. Good agreement between the
ECM and gfs. The MetO are coming round to the idea, but won't fully
commit themselves on today's 6-15 day update. I don't really blame
them. It's very easy to make mistakes forecasting at 10 days.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

If only that set-up would wait 3 months...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

"Paul Hyett" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 1 Sep 2009 at 12:25:43, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

36 hours on and still looking good for a settled and warmer period of
weather next week, for England, at least. Good agreement between the
ECM and gfs. The MetO are coming round to the idea, but won't fully
commit themselves on today's 6-15 day update. I don't really blame
them. It's very easy to make mistakes forecasting at 10 days.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

If only that set-up would wait 3 months...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Any forecast beyond 5 days needs to be taken with a huge pinch of salt at
this time of year, despite any apparent consistency. Hurricanes can develop
quickly and unexpectedly and have great potential for altering the strength
of jets and their orientation as they become extra-tropical. Also there is
at least one upper trough disruption before the forecast high pressure
period and models do not handle trough disruptions well. Confidence in an
anticyclone at this stage has to 50% at most I'd say.

Will
--

On Sep 2, 8:25*am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Paul Hyett" wrote in message

...

On Tue, 1 Sep 2009 at 12:25:43, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

36 hours on and still looking good for a settled and warmer period of
weather next week, for England, at least. Good agreement between the
ECM and gfs. The MetO are coming round to the idea, but won't fully
commit themselves on today's 6-15 day update. I don't really blame
them. It's very easy to make mistakes forecasting at 10 days.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

If only that set-up would wait 3 months...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Any forecast beyond 5 days needs to be taken with a huge pinch of salt at
this time of year, despite any apparent consistency. Hurricanes can develop
quickly and unexpectedly and have great potential for altering the strength
of jets and their orientation as they become extra-tropical. Also there is
at least one upper trough disruption before the forecast high pressure
period and models do not handle trough disruptions well. Confidence in an
anticyclone at this stage has to 50% at most I'd say.

Will
--

I don't know about 5 days, but any forecast beyond a week usually
needs to be taken with a huge pinch of salt at most times of the year
Will - especially when it involves forecasting a change of pattern; in
this case from very unsettled to very settled weather.

However, I have maintained for several years that there are times when
it is possible to forecast with 75% accuracy out to the far reaches
of 10 days, where forecasting usually becomes guesswork. I could be
wrong, of course (about 25% of the time), but I think this is one of
those times where it is possible. I haven't seen anything yet to
change my mind about the 10th and the MetO have certainly come around
to the same way of thinking as myself, about next week and the time
around the 10th in particular.

"Most parts are expected to become mainly dry, bright and warm around
the middle of next week" - today's 6-15 day tea-break precis! 8))

On Wed, 2 Sep 2009 at 08:25:40, Will Hand
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

If only that set-up would wait 3 months...

Any forecast beyond 5 days needs to be taken with a huge pinch of salt
at this time of year, despite any apparent consistency. Hurricanes can
develop quickly and unexpectedly and have great potential for altering
the strength of jets and their orientation as they become extra-tropical.

ISTM that even the most vigorous storms bounce off high pressure cells
like peas off an elephant, though...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

However, I have maintained for several years that there are times when
it is possible to forecast with 75% accuracy out to the far reaches
of 10 days, where forecasting usually becomes guesswork. I could be
wrong, of course (about 25% of the time), but I think this is one of
those times where it is possible. I haven't seen anything yet to
change my mind about the 10th and the MetO have certainly come around
to the same way of thinking as myself, about next week and the time
around the 10th in particular.

"Most parts are expected to become mainly dry, bright and warm around
the middle of next week" - today's 6-15 day tea-break precis! 8))


I am intrigued by your claim of making a "forecast". Are you not simply
model watching, as many of us here do, and when there is agreement at 10
days up pops your forecast. To claim the MO have come round to the same way
of thinking as yourself is plainly ridiculous, when you don't actually
"make" a forecast, only interpret the models. Or am I missing a skill you
also have?

--
Ned

In article ,
Ned writes:

"Dawlish" wrote in message news:2d8c8221-e967-4149
...

However, I have maintained for several years that there are times when
it is possible to forecast with 75% accuracy out to the far reaches
of 10 days, where forecasting usually becomes guesswork. I could be
wrong, of course (about 25% of the time), but I think this is one of
those times where it is possible. I haven't seen anything yet to
change my mind about the 10th and the MetO have certainly come around
to the same way of thinking as myself, about next week and the time
around the 10th in particular.

"Most parts are expected to become mainly dry, bright and warm around
the middle of next week" - today's 6-15 day tea-break precis! 8))


I am intrigued by your claim of making a "forecast". Are you not simply
model watching, as many of us here do, and when there is agreement at
10 days up pops your forecast. To claim the MO have come round to the
same way of thinking as yourself is plainly ridiculous, when you don't
actually "make" a forecast, only interpret the models. Or am I missing
a skill you also have?


As far as 10 days out, are the Met Office doing anything very different
from interpreting the models? I can't see what else they could be doing.
Of course, they may well have access to data that Dawlish does not,
notably ensembles for some models that only make their operational runs
available to the general public, so that their forecasts ought to be
better than his.
--
John Hall "Do you have cornflakes in America?"
"Well, actually, they're American."
"So what brings you to Britain then if you have cornflakes already?"
Bill Bryson: "Notes from a Small Island"