Will Hand wrote:

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...
Nick wrote:

On Aug 31, 10:44 am, "Will Hand" wrote:

Tempted to
light a fire but probably won't as I will need the logs this winter if
that Atlantic cold pool persists :-)


Let's hope it does, summer's loss could be winter's gain....


N Atlantic SST anomaly pattern, if it persists, should produce a cyclonic
NW'ly type so, with the cold pool, it ought to be a rather cool winter
but
by no means cold. The prospect of cold easterlies looks highly unlikely.


Who needs easterlies, a cool NW'ly will suit me just fine. That setup
will give pretty good snowfall at times in my area with the added bonus
of less occasions of fog and drizzle in yucky mild SW'lies. Bring it on!
Thanks Graham that's cheered up my gloomy Bank Holiday :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

I keep a monthly anomaly spreadsheet highlighting each month (colour
coded) if it's been 0.5°C warmer/colder 50% wetter/drier than the
1971-2000 average. I have this now from 1960 and update it each month.
By using the 'Split Pane' on excel I can scroll the current year (2009)
up and down and see if there are any 'matches' with previous years. Not
surprisingly, I can rarely get two months that correspond with any
current trend so it is very thin to make any forecast/projections of any
future patterns.

The nearest similarities I found were 1976, 1989, 1995, 1997, 2003, 2005
and 2007. (January to August)
1977 was cold Jan, mild Feb.
1990 was a very mild winter.
1996 was a cold and dry winter.
1998 was a very mild winter.
2004 was an average winter, Jan mild.
2008 was a very mild winter.

As you can see thats conclusive! However, adding Grahams SST anomalies
into the equation, maybe the swingometer heads in a colder direction.
One other fly in the ointment is El Nino, this normally swings us in the
mild direction.

So my forecast is for an average winter in both temperature and rainfall.

Gee, I could get a job at the Met Office at this rate ;-)
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Nick wrote:

n the same topic what are people's thoughts on what have caused these
Atlantic cold pools in summers 2008 and 2009 two years on the trot? Is
it something to do with easterly springs?


The cold pool last year didn't start forming until late summer. There was a
tiny cool puddle in mid-Atlantic at the end of July which spread east and
grew during August.

This year's cold pool started in December of South Greenland. During the
rest of winter and spring, it moved slowly SE but didn't start growing until
May. By the end of May, it had become a significant feature which continued
to spread east and intensify. It may have reached its peak around the end of
July.

Judging by the eastwards movement and different times of formation of the
systems, easterly springs had nothing to do with their formation. I don't
know what generated them but perhaps there was excessive storminess at the
time of their formation or cold NW winds over the region. If I had some
monthly pressure anomalies, I might be better able to answer.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On Aug 31, 12:05*pm, Graham Easterling
wrote:
On 31 Aug, 10:34, Dawlish wrote:





On Aug 31, 9:43*am, Graham Easterling
wrote:

On 31 Aug, 09:15, Graham Easterling
wrote:

But will it continue? Good breaks is the cloud with some warm
sunshine. Rather breezy. Similar at St Iveswww.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm.
Temperature at 09:00 17.7C, which happens to be identical to the St
Ives temperature.

Low cloud over the hills.

Graham
Penzance

Still some sunshine as far west as Scilly - look blustery thoughwww.scillyman.co.uk/Web_Cam.html

Graham

If you have sunshine this morning, you are one of the very few areas
of the UK where you can see through the clouds.

I must admit I'm pleasantly surprised how it's lasting.

Still sunny (noon) I've just got back from a swim, it's only a Force 3
on the sea front, bit lumpy but no white horses. Strongest gust here
today 18mph. Penzance Heliport reporting 3mph at 9:20, 6mph at 10:50,
and that's in a windy spot right on the sea front. A fraction of the
forecast wind speed, which were far higher yesterday.

Also still sunny on the north coast (though I think it will very soon
go.)www.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm

There seems to be a fine 'gap' between the dull damp conditions we had
yesterday, and the cold front which is now approaching. Though you
need to be close to sea level to get the sunshine.

Still broken cloud near Land's End at Sennenwww.chapelidne.com/php/surf_report.php
where all car parks in the cove are now full.

Graham
Penzance- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

"What's that coming over the hill, is it some sunshine....is it some
sunshine....!!!!!"

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Aug 31, 12:05 pm, Graham Easterling
wrote:
On 31 Aug, 10:34, Dawlish wrote:





On Aug 31, 9:43 am, Graham Easterling
wrote:

On 31 Aug, 09:15, Graham Easterling
wrote:

But will it continue? Good breaks is the cloud with some warm
sunshine. Rather breezy. Similar at St
Iveswww.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm.
Temperature at 09:00 17.7C, which happens to be identical to the St
Ives temperature.

Low cloud over the hills.

Graham
Penzance

Still some sunshine as far west as Scilly - look blustery
thoughwww.scillyman.co.uk/Web_Cam.html

Graham

If you have sunshine this morning, you are one of the very few areas
of the UK where you can see through the clouds.

I must admit I'm pleasantly surprised how it's lasting.

Still sunny (noon) I've just got back from a swim, it's only a Force 3
on the sea front, bit lumpy but no white horses. Strongest gust here
today 18mph. Penzance Heliport reporting 3mph at 9:20, 6mph at 10:50,
and that's in a windy spot right on the sea front. A fraction of the
forecast wind speed, which were far higher yesterday.

Also still sunny on the north coast (though I think it will very soon
go.)www.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm

There seems to be a fine 'gap' between the dull damp conditions we had
yesterday, and the cold front which is now approaching. Though you
need to be close to sea level to get the sunshine.

Still broken cloud near Land's End at
Sennenwww.chapelidne.com/php/surf_report.php
where all car parks in the cove are now full.

Graham
Penzance- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

"What's that coming over the hill, is it some sunshine....is it some
sunshine....!!!!!"

===

Sunny here in Haytor too since 1300.
Temp. now 16.8C

Will
--

On 31 Aug, 13:45, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Aug 31, 12:05 pm, Graham Easterling
wrote:





On 31 Aug, 10:34, Dawlish wrote:

On Aug 31, 9:43 am, Graham Easterling
wrote:

On 31 Aug, 09:15, Graham Easterling
wrote:

But will it continue? Good breaks is the cloud with some warm
sunshine. Rather breezy. Similar at St
Iveswww.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm.
Temperature at 09:00 17.7C, which happens to be identical to the St
Ives temperature.

Low cloud over the hills.

Graham
Penzance

Still some sunshine as far west as Scilly - look blustery
thoughwww.scillyman.co.uk/Web_Cam.html

Graham

If you have sunshine this morning, you are one of the very few areas
of the UK where you can see through the clouds.

I must admit I'm pleasantly surprised how it's lasting.

Still sunny (noon) I've just got back from a swim, it's only a Force 3
on the sea front, bit lumpy but no white horses. Strongest gust here
today 18mph. Penzance Heliport reporting 3mph at 9:20, 6mph at 10:50,
and that's in a windy spot right on the sea front. A fraction of the
forecast wind speed, which were far higher yesterday.

Also still sunny on the north coast (though I think it will very soon
go.)www.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm

There seems to be a fine 'gap' between the dull damp conditions we had
yesterday, and the cold front which is now approaching. Though you
need to be close to sea level to get the sunshine.

Still broken cloud near Land's End at
Sennenwww.chapelidne.com/php/surf_report.php
where all car parks in the cove are now full.

Graham
Penzance- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

"What's that coming over the hill, is it some sunshine....is it some
sunshine....!!!!!"

===

Sunny here in Haytor too since 1300.
Temp. now 16.8C

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Sun's gone here now, and the wind's starting to pick up, the front's
steadily approaching and it looks pretty active. Still, good spells of
sunshine from 09:00-13:00 was more than I'd really expected. Max 19.6C
here around 11:30.

Just how sunny it was over the sea in the far SW this moring can be
seen at www.sennen-cove.com/today2.htm Cowloe is just 1 mile from
Land's End.

Graham
Penzance

On Aug 31, 1:45*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Aug 31, 12:05 pm, Graham Easterling
wrote:





On 31 Aug, 10:34, Dawlish wrote:

On Aug 31, 9:43 am, Graham Easterling
wrote:

On 31 Aug, 09:15, Graham Easterling
wrote:

But will it continue? Good breaks is the cloud with some warm
sunshine. Rather breezy. Similar at St
Iveswww.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm.
Temperature at 09:00 17.7C, which happens to be identical to the St
Ives temperature.

Low cloud over the hills.

Graham
Penzance

Still some sunshine as far west as Scilly - look blustery
thoughwww.scillyman.co.uk/Web_Cam.html

Graham

If you have sunshine this morning, you are one of the very few areas
of the UK where you can see through the clouds.

I must admit I'm pleasantly surprised how it's lasting.

Still sunny (noon) I've just got back from a swim, it's only a Force 3
on the sea front, bit lumpy but no white horses. Strongest gust here
today 18mph. Penzance Heliport reporting 3mph at 9:20, 6mph at 10:50,
and that's in a windy spot right on the sea front. A fraction of the
forecast wind speed, which were far higher yesterday.

Also still sunny on the north coast (though I think it will very soon
go.)www.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm

There seems to be a fine 'gap' between the dull damp conditions we had
yesterday, and the cold front which is now approaching. Though you
need to be close to sea level to get the sunshine.

Still broken cloud near Land's End at
Sennenwww.chapelidne.com/php/surf_report.php
where all car parks in the cove are now full.

Graham
Penzance- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

"What's that coming over the hill, is it some sunshine....is it some
sunshine....!!!!!"

===

Sunny here in Haytor too since 1300.
Temp. now 16.8C

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

What an afternoon in the end. Not overly warm, but pleasant at 20C,
but it was the clouds ahead of the approaching cold fromt that made
it. Wonderful streaming cirrus, cirrostratus and cirrocumulus.
thickening and lowering later. Such a big sky. Beautiful. Stunning.
First drops of rain and some s****atus as the air is seeming to
destabilise ahead of the front. BBQ delicious, but now over and done
with..........as is the summer!

Here's to September!