In article ,
Will Hand writes:
Remember years ago Paul B. and I collaborated and put out joint efforts
- a lot of work but great fun! IIRC Paul got fed up because his
indicators kept out coming mild with little variability.

Which was pretty much how most of the winters turned out, IIRC, which
suggests that they were pretty good forecasts.

Going back to pattern matching, one very broad-brush technique that has
I think performed slightly better than chance in the past is to forecast
that the winter will be broadly similar to the previous one. That's
because there does seem a tendency for winters to come in "clumps", with
cold winters clustering together and likewise for mild ones. The last
real "clump" of cold winters is a long time ago now, though, between
about 1978 and 1987.
--
John Hall "Do you have cornflakes in America?"
"Well, actually, they're American."
"So what brings you to Britain then if you have cornflakes already?"
Bill Bryson: "Notes from a Small Island"

On 25 Sep, 08:08, Dawlish wrote:
On Sep 25, 12:15*am, Richard Dixon wrote:





On 24 Sep, 23:16, Dawlish wrote:

Some unnecessary prejudice there against climatologists (the "churned
out" comment speaks volumes). Methinks you could learn much from the
more informed of them. As you say, you can safely say you are not a
world-leading expert. Probably best to leave it to those that know
more.

You've misread me marvellously, Paul. I have nothing but respect for
the climatologists and long-range forecasters who are battling to find
meaning in the noise that is seasonal forecasts, of which I'm sure
there is genuine value. If you're in the school of "seasonal forecasts
have no value" then I will disagree wholeheartedly given the amount of
research time paid to it. Note lack of use of word "churn" this time.

Pattern-matching, as practised by most is an exercise in frovolity,
IMO.

Yes, I agree, but it's a bit of fun, and something I like to follow as
it gets us ready for the run-up to winter. It's a shame that the likes
of Paul Bartlett don't post on here any more, critical analysis of his
efforts or not.

However, as practised by a climatologist that is prepared to
actively research, it becomes an excercise of interest, which could
lead to learning. H. Lamb was a fine climatologist. You'd do well to
read his work.

I have done. I have H H Lamb's "Historic storms of the North Sea,
British Isles and Northwest Europe" - a fine read. And for what it's
worth, I still actively research in meteorology.

I'll dig out the research paper for you.

Richard

Merci.

http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?...B%3E2.0.CO%3B2

.... and this is simply a statistical approach and not dynamical.
Limited predictability in mid-latitudes.

Richard