http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...0Euro%20Winter


That guy says what I want to hear: is he acurrate though?

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...0Euro%20Winter


That guy says what I want to hear: is he acurrate though?


Unlike my accurate. Oh the irony

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...0Euro%20Winter


That guy says what I want to hear: is he acurrate though?

2002-3 at Haytor

Jan - 6 days snow lying (+0.3C max. anomaly)
Feb - 2 days snow lying (+1.1C)
Mar - 0 days snow lying (+2.4C)

So a mild winter at Haytor. (Do not have obs for Dec 2002 but IIRC it was
nothing special).

I would prefer something a bit colder and a bit more snowy than than that to
be honest. The only thing about that winter was that Jan and Feb were
reversed, February is normally the coldest and snowiest month up here.

It may have been different up country of course? :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

On Oct 1, 9:00*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...809984001&chan....

That guy says what I want to hear.

Must be a "great forecast" then.

Also, is this an echo from over a week ago? Maybe we are doomed to see
Joe's winter forecast again and again on a regular basis..... 8))

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...3cca91fbbbb1d#

The answer to your question, for his long-range forecasts is; "no" -
or you can bet your life that his accuracy stats would be plastered
all over Accuweather. Joe relies on people forgetting his wrong
forecasts and remembering his correct ones. From ad hoc monitoring I'd
support that "no". He forecast a colder than average north-westerly
month in September for the UK and in his video, even he says that his
summer forecast for the UK was "too warm". However, he did forecast a
warmer than average summer, so I'll give him that one. Please remember
those two when he gets others wrong, or right, because.....

........After those two forecasts, he needs another correct one to get
to 66% accuracy (2 correct out of 3) - the hindsight accuracy of the
MetOs forecasts of the NAO. He would need 2 consecutive correct long-
range forecasts to achieve 75% accuracy and 3 on the trot to get to
the 80% accuracy which would be finally better than forecasting a
warmer than average winter from 30-year hindsight forecasts of UK
winters in this warming trend. I think getting 3 on the trot is
unlikely, because, like you Lawrence, he's looking for a particular
outcome to back his views about GW having stopped i.e. he's forecast a
cold winter for the UK because he wants one.

It's about a 25% chance of the UK getting a colder than average winter
this year (based on UK winters over the last 30 years) = 3/1 against.
It would be the same odds for one single month being colder than
average. To get all three winter months, Dec, Jan and Feb, colder than
average would be 3x3x3 =27/1* against on that 30-year hindsight
calculation. Does Joe realise how much he's bitten off with that
forecast? Of course it *could* happen and if he gets it right, his
reputation would be set in stone for years.......despite any analysis
of his outcome percentage success. Good luck Joe - you'll need it!

*it's probably a little less than this due to persistence - if we've
had two consecutive cold months, it *may* be more likely that we'll
get a third one as the blocking would probably be very well
established and may well persist.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Oct 1, 9:00 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...809984001&chan...

That guy says what I want to hear.

Must be a "great forecast" then.

Also, is this an echo from over a week ago? Maybe we are doomed to see
Joe's winter forecast again and again on a regular basis..... 8))

Paul was that a smiley of some description 8)). Wah hey.

On Oct 1, 10:11*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Oct 1, 9:00 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...809984001&chan....

That guy says what I want to hear.

Must be a "great forecast" then.

Also, is this an echo from over a week ago? Maybe we are doomed to see
Joe's winter forecast again and again on a regular basis..... 8))

Paul *was that a smiley of some description *8)). Wah hey.

.............and what about the sentiments in my post?

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Oct 1, 10:11 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Oct 1, 9:00 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...809984001&chan...

That guy says what I want to hear.

Must be a "great forecast" then.

Also, is this an echo from over a week ago? Maybe we are doomed to see
Joe's winter forecast again and again on a regular basis..... 8))

Paul was that a smiley of some description 8)). Wah hey.

.............and what about the sentiments in my post?

I'm not too sure what they were?

The way I see it is Joe is a respected meteorologist who although working
for the commercial sector which is lead by business needs -and they I would
imagine have to be pretty good in order to earn an income. I note that Will
in another thread has mentioned that Business and meteorology don't really
work together and that is a point that has some value. However it does seem
to me that Joe has far more free reign with Accuweather to speak his mind
then some of the apparachniks working for UKMO. There is not seemingly one
dissident forecaster that deviates from the doom laden AGW line by as much
as a hairs breadth.

Joe is also trying to use all the observational technology to have a stab at
look at weather patterns and is infinitely more enlightening and interesting
then his British colleagues are seemingly allowed to be.

You can prattle on all day about Joe's accuracy UKMO isn't that good, in
fact I've always stated that UKMO always over egg the pudding with their
ludicrous severe weather warnings which manage a staggering degree of
hyperbolic inaccuracy only hours ahead.

Anyhow lets see how Joe's Dec, Jan and Feb forecast for the Eastern states
of America and Europe pan out

On Oct 2, 5:01*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:


You can prattle on all day about Joe's accuracy UKMO isn't that good, in
fact I've always stated that UKMO always over egg the pudding with their
ludicrous severe weather warnings which manage a staggering degree of
hyperbolic inaccuracy only hours ahead.

You can choose to ignore the accuracy stats, or you can believe what
Joe *******i says. I guess that's the ultimate in style, over
substance.

The fact that you mix short-term severe weather warning accuracy with
seasonal forecast accuracy shows you don't understand weather
forecasting accuracy measures. You may state something, but you never
have the stats behind you to back what you say - so how could anyone
believe you?

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Oct 2, 5:01 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:


You can prattle on all day about Joe's accuracy UKMO isn't that good, in
fact I've always stated that UKMO always over egg the pudding with their
ludicrous severe weather warnings which manage a staggering degree of
hyperbolic inaccuracy only hours ahead.

You can choose to ignore the accuracy stats, or you can believe what
Joe *******i says. I guess that's the ultimate in style, over
substance.

The fact that you mix short-term severe weather warning accuracy with
seasonal forecast accuracy shows you don't understand weather
forecasting accuracy measures. You may state something, but you never
have the stats behind you to back what you say - so how could anyone
believe you?

You seem to know only one way in how to respond to a person its called tha
napalm everything approach. All that ******** about me "not understanding
weather" and you do you pompous fool. Your responnse is always to say how
great thou art and how stupid everyone else is. However when push comes to
shove you couldn't even get the Arctic ice prediction correct and as usual
with your sawn off shot gun approach you repraoch everyone for doing what
you do in spades -avoid the issues.

You never responded to one point that I made about Joe B and UKMO.

By the way giving out two hourly severe weather warnings when they don't
happen, is forecasting you fool. Of course you know about weather which led
you to state that a strong cool breeze would be protect a person from
sunburn-idiot.


I'm being a bit strong here as your bludgeoning comments are starting to
sicken me. You seem to be of the school where if you repeat something enough
its the truth. You sir are a nutter.

On Oct 2, 8:14*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Oct 2, 5:01 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

You can prattle on all day about Joe's accuracy UKMO isn't that good, in
fact I've always stated that UKMO always over egg the pudding with their
ludicrous severe weather warnings which manage a staggering degree of
hyperbolic inaccuracy only hours ahead.

You can choose to ignore the accuracy stats, or you can believe what
Joe *******i says. I guess that's the ultimate in style, over
substance.

The fact that you mix short-term severe weather warning accuracy with
seasonal forecast accuracy shows you don't understand weather
forecasting accuracy measures. You may state something, but you never
have the stats behind you to back what you say - so how could anyone
believe you?

You seem to know only one way in how to respond to a person its called tha
napalm everything approach. All that ******** about me "not understanding
weather" and you do you pompous fool. Your responnse is always to say how
great thou art and how stupid everyone else is. However when push comes to
shove you couldn't even get the Arctic ice prediction correct and as usual
with your sawn off shot gun approach you repraoch everyone *for doing what
you do in spades -avoid the *issues.

You never responded to one point that I made about Joe B and UKMO.

By the way giving out two hourly severe weather warnings when they don't
happen, is forecasting you fool. Of course you know about weather which led
you to state that a strong cool breeze would be protect a person from
sunburn-idiot.

I'm being a bit strong here as your bludgeoning comments *are starting to
sicken me. You seem to be of the school where if you repeat something enough
its the truth. You sir are a nutter.

Abuse, as usual. Not worth responding to.