Almost exactly the same as last week.

"•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter
2009-10."

El Nino conditions are slowly strengthening. It's nothing like as
strong as 1998, but the majority of models forecast the peak ONI at
1.0 between Nov and Jan. Could be higher, could be lower. There are
no certainties in ENSO prediction!

There are some very interesting predictions of possible weather
conditions in the USA in an El NIno winter towards the end of the
slide set.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/ana...-fcsts-web.pdf