Looking like this dry spell will end and not return for a while. 4
consecutive gfs runs now showing Atlantic conditions across the UK for
the forseeable future. A large Scandinavian block may delay the
progress of those lows and fronts somewhat, keeping eastern areas of
the UK drier, but that looks as if it may decline and allow in
Atlantic weather further by T240. It would need a 5th gfs run and ECM
agreement for me to forecast with confidence. Not exactly a zonal
train, but not the settled and mainly dry weather that we've become
used to. Never cold, but not particularly mild either. Autumnal
looking, I suppose - whatever exactly that means in the UK!

Will settle for that, the longer the cold stuff stays away the better !

Robbie

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Looking like this dry spell will end and not return for a while. 4
consecutive gfs runs now showing Atlantic conditions across the UK for
the forseeable future. A large Scandinavian block may delay the
progress of those lows and fronts somewhat, keeping eastern areas of
the UK drier, but that looks as if it may decline and allow in
Atlantic weather further by T240. It would need a 5th gfs run and ECM
agreement for me to forecast with confidence. Not exactly a zonal
train, but not the settled and mainly dry weather that we've become
used to. Never cold, but not particularly mild either. Autumnal
looking, I suppose - whatever exactly that means in the UK!

Snowing in eastern USA today....so it will turn cold here in five days ,my
old granny always said that....


RonB
"Ridge Runner" wrote in message
...
Will settle for that, the longer the cold stuff stays away the better !

Robbie

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Looking like this dry spell will end and not return for a while. 4
consecutive gfs runs now showing Atlantic conditions across the UK for
the forseeable future. A large Scandinavian block may delay the
progress of those lows and fronts somewhat, keeping eastern areas of
the UK drier, but that looks as if it may decline and allow in
Atlantic weather further by T240. It would need a 5th gfs run and ECM
agreement for me to forecast with confidence. Not exactly a zonal
train, but not the settled and mainly dry weather that we've become
used to. Never cold, but not particularly mild either. Autumnal
looking, I suppose - whatever exactly that means in the UK!

On Oct 19, 2:27*pm, "Ridge Runner" wrote:
Will settle for that, the longer the cold stuff stays away the better !

Robbie

Not so sure about that myself, wet is IMX much more disruptive than
cold. That said, cold *and* wet, of the sort we got on Nov 1st last
year, is particularly unpleasant (when it's rain rather than snow) and
I guess we're not getting that.

Nick

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Looking like this dry spell will end and not return for a while. 4
consecutive gfs runs now showing Atlantic conditions across the UK for
the forseeable future. A large Scandinavian block may delay the
progress of those lows and fronts somewhat, keeping eastern areas of
the UK drier, but that looks as if it may decline and allow in
Atlantic weather further by T240. It would need a 5th gfs run and ECM
agreement for me to forecast with confidence. Not exactly a zonal
train, but not the settled and mainly dry weather that we've become
used to. Never cold, but not particularly mild either. Autumnal
looking, I suppose - whatever exactly that means in the UK!

Have to agree with that, good autumnal stuff still not too sure up to ten
days though that high looks like it wants to push westwards and the models
later tonight may show that yet again. But hey what do I know.

"Ridge Runner" wrote in message
...
Will settle for that, the longer the cold stuff stays away the better !

You won't get much sympathy for that point of view here mate. 88 % nutty
cold snow lovers on this NG.

On Mon, 19 Oct 2009 03:28:11 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

Looking like this dry spell will end and not return for a while. 4
consecutive gfs runs now showing Atlantic conditions across the UK for
the forseeable future. A large Scandinavian block may delay the
progress of those lows and fronts somewhat, keeping eastern areas of
the UK drier, but that looks as if it may decline and allow in
Atlantic weather further by T240.

Interesting - I was forming the impression that the west to east shift
was not going to falter as I thought it might a few days ago. I see
Willo is going to review the end of the week midweek. Not concerned
really as I am staying on the Norfolk coast next week and it can blow
a bit if it wants. I am definitely 'chilling out' over there.

R

Hilton

On Oct 19, 10:08*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

Looking like this dry spell will end and not return for a while. 4
consecutive gfs runs now showing Atlantic conditions across the UK for
the forseeable future. A large Scandinavian block may delay the
progress of those lows and fronts somewhat, keeping eastern areas of
the UK drier, but that looks as if it may decline and allow in
Atlantic weather further by T240. It would need a 5th gfs run and ECM
agreement for me to forecast with confidence. Not exactly a zonal
train, but not the settled and mainly dry weather that we've become
used to. Never cold, but not particularly mild either. Autumnal
looking, I suppose - whatever exactly that means in the UK!

But hey what do I know.

True.

It's knowing when not to forecast that's the real key to any success
at T240+. Both models have altered their stance considerably by this
morning and both were showing something different from the Atlantic-
driven scenario by yesterday evening - hence no forecast from me.

The 00z gfs and ECM both now show northern blocking, with a ridge from
the north covering the UK at T240. Yesterday afternoon, I wouldn't
have bet on that being shown 3 gfs runs later. I'll have to see
another day's runs to be convinced, however.

The MetO is still stuck on yesterday lunchtime's model output, which
is no good to anyone 22 hours later. MInd you, their guess is probably
as good as anyone's out towards the end of the month, after this
morning's model output!

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Oct 2009 to Monday 2 Nov 2009:
On Saturday, wet and windy weather will spread northeastwards across
southern and central parts of the United Kingdom, while it's likely to
stay mainly dry and bright across much of northern Britain. By Sunday,
the wettest weather is expected to be across Northern Ireland and
northern Britain, with bright but showery weather affecting England
and Wales. The unsettled, changeable theme looks set to continue for
the rest of the period, with spells of wet and windy weather
interspersed by brighter, showery conditions. The rain generally most
frequent and heaviest in the west, where there is likely to be gales
at times. Generally mild throughout the period, with any frost mainly
limited to the north during any clearer nights.

Updated: 1201 on Mon 19 Oct 2009


Certainly very unsettled over the next week, but it's back to model-
watching for me, as there is no consistency over time in this output
from either the gfs, or the ECM, as regards at 10 days hence.

On Oct 19, 11:50*pm, Robin Nicholson
wrote:
On Mon, 19 Oct 2009 03:28:11 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

Looking like this dry spell will end and not return for a while. 4
consecutive gfs runs now showing Atlantic conditions across the UK for
the forseeable future. A large Scandinavian block may delay the
progress of those lows and fronts somewhat, keeping eastern areas of
the UK drier, but that looks as if it may decline and allow in
Atlantic weather further by T240.

Interesting - I was forming the impression that the west to east shift
was not going to falter as I thought it might a few days ago. I see
Willo is going to review the end of the week midweek. Not concerned
really as I am staying on the Norfolk coast next week and it can blow
a bit if it wants. I am definitely 'chilling out' over there.

R

Hilton

Something possibly brewing for Sunday. Both the ECM and the gfs centre
a deep low over the UK with some strong winds wrapped around it. Still
early for any detail and height rises to the east may well emasculate
this possible storm completely, but it's there at 5 days.

On Oct 20, 1:03*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 19, 11:50*pm, Robin Nicholson



wrote:
On Mon, 19 Oct 2009 03:28:11 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

Looking like this dry spell will end and not return for a while. 4
consecutive gfs runs now showing Atlantic conditions across the UK for
the forseeable future. A large Scandinavian block may delay the
progress of those lows and fronts somewhat, keeping eastern areas of
the UK drier, but that looks as if it may decline and allow in
Atlantic weather further by T240.

Interesting - I was forming the impression that the west to east shift
was not going to falter as I thought it might a few days ago. I see
Willo is going to review the end of the week midweek. Not concerned
really as I am staying on the Norfolk coast next week and it can blow
a bit if it wants. I am definitely 'chilling out' over there.

R

Hilton

Something possibly brewing for Sunday. Both the ECM and the gfs centre
a deep low over the UK with some strong winds wrapped around it. Still
early for any detail and height rises to the east may well emasculate
this possible storm completely, but it's there at 5 days.

It's most unfortunate that this spell seems to be peaking on Saturday
and Sunday, these sorts of weather conditions can really mess up a
weekend. Still the timing is crucial, if all the frontal systems pass
through between, say 5pm to 11am, and that crucial six-hour late
morning/lunch/afternoon window is dry, then it's nothing like such a
problem.

Nick